Measuring Outcomes: Latinos and the 2008 Election

1. Measuring Outcomes: Latinos and the 2008 Election Latinos and the 2008 Elections Lecture 12 November 6, 2008

2. A Peaceful and Eloquent Transition of Power • Each candidate (if not the audience in one case) hit the right notes • “Yes we can” (Si se puede) now a part of the national political lexicon • Origins – United Farm Workers and Caesar Chavez (1972) • Obama used in his 2004 Senate race • And throughout the 2008 race, particularly when reaching out to Latino audiences

3. Did Latinos Contribute to the Obama Coalition? • Without question • Latinos strongly supported Obama, as did other minority populations • Had the electorate been made of up non-Hispanic whites, President-elect McCain would be preparing for the transition • Of course, national data only tell small part of the story

4. 2008 Vote, By Race/Ethnicity Source: CNN exit polls

5. Race/Ethnic Group Share of CNN Exit Poll Non Hispanic White 74% Latino 9% African American 13% Asian American 2% Other 3% • Note – these probably do not represent the race/ethnic group shares of actual electorate

6. What Don’t We Know About the National Latino Electorate? • Latino share of the vote and total number of Latino voters • Total electorate up • 120 million ballots counted so far • Total could reach 133 million / 62.5 percent of eligible adults • 2004 – 122.3 million voters / 60.3 percent turnout • Turnout, nationally and in the states • People will extrapolate from exit poll share (9 percent) • Hard data on number of Latino voters will be available next summer (from the Current Population Survey)

7. What Can We Learn from the Obama Campaign? • Truly a campaign on the cutting edge • Use of new technologies • To disseminate information • To recruit volunteers • Most importantly, to raise money • Top-down, but decentralized • Race/ethnicity was not a central message (while being a defining symbol) • Likely destruction of public funding for future presidential races

8. Obama Campaign Lessons for Latino Outreach – Less Clear • Until we know about Latino turnout, • Can’t judge whether Obama mobilized Latinos who would not otherwise have participated • Can’t get precise measures of influence • The Obama campaign stuck to the “battleground” playbook which reduces Latino mobilization • Promise of $20 million for Latino mobilization may have been met • Clearly spent money on ads in battleground states (relied on Spanish) • $20 million is a lot, but as share of total campaign spending may be less than Kerry/party/527 Latino outreach in 2004

9. And the McCain Campaign? • Ultimately, McCain had a difficult road • Low Bush popularity • Ambivalent support from Republican base before Palin nomination (and elites after) • National economic collapse • Significant gains in Democratic registration • McCain could not find a message that resonated with independent voters • Except for post-Palin bump, he never controlled the debate

10. McCain Latino Outreach Strategy Poor • Campaign focus on turning out the Republican base, which doesn’t include Latinos, rather than mobilizing new voters • Some targeted advertising, but no comprehensive Latino outreach strategy • Inability to tap potential strength with Latino community – immigration – for fear of alienating the Republican base • Ultimately, a reprise of Bob Dole’s 1996 campaign

11. Latino Vote, by State 2008 –1 Source: CNN exit poll Be cautious of these numbers

12. Latino Vote, by State 2008 –2 Be cautious of these numbers Source: CNN exit poll

13. While Being Cautious, What Can We Learn from the Exit Polls? • Assertions of Latino move to the Republicans should disappear • Variation across states remain • Native-son effect also remains • Changes in Florida perhaps most interesting, must include some Cuban American support for Obama • Assertions that Latinos will not support Black candidates also unsupported

14. Latinos and Other Races – Federal Offices • Texas Senate Race • John Cornyn (R- incumbent) 55 percent vs. Rick Noriega (D) 43 percent • Latino vote – Cornyn 36 percent / Noriega 61 percent • African American vote – Cornyn 8 percent / Noriega 89 percent • U.S. Congress • NM 3 – Ben Lujan (D) – 57 percent vs. Daniel East (R) – 30 percent • Three South Florida Congressional races – All Latino incumbents (Republicans) won • Louisiana 2 – Helena Moreno (D) – 43 percent vs. William Jefferson (D – incumbent) – 57 percent

15. Latinos and Other State Races • California Proposition 11 – “Voters First Act” • Yes – 51 percent No – 49 percent • Governor has declared victory • Colorado Amendment 46 – “Colorado Civil Rights Initiative” • Yes – 50 percent No – 50 percent • Not called • Arizona Proposition 202 – Identity theft • Yes – 41 percent No – 59 percent • No exit poll (no data on Latino vote) on these initiatives

16. Of Course, Now the Real Work Begins • Evidence is that Obama transition team is ready for this responsibility • Others in similar position have not been • Demands will come from all quarters, including demands to ensure that the Obama administration is diverse on multiple measures • Latinos will seek senior positions in the administration • Bill Richardson • The Obama campaign did not have an obvious cadre of Latino leaders who would move to cabinet posts • Most “national” Latino leaders supported Sen. Clinton, at least initially

17. For Next Week • We’ll seek to measure Latino influence in national and state races • And assess the opportunities Latinos will have to shape policy outcomes in the Obama administration