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Managerial economics

Explore qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods, trend analysis, and econometric models. Learn about barometric methods and input-output forecasting for decision-making in managerial economics.

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Managerial economics

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  1. Managerial economics • PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia. • Post Graduate Diploma in Regional Dev.,1994, Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland, Australia. • MS in Rural & Regional Development Planning, 1986, Graduate School, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor Bab 4 : PeramalanPermintaan Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics

  2. Pokok Bahasan • Peramalan Kualitatif : Survei, Jajak Pendapat • Peramalan Kuantitatif : • Analisis Deret Waktu • Teknik Penghalusan • Metode Barometrik • Model Ekonometrik • Peramalan Input-Output • Ringkasan, Pertanyaan Diskusi, Soal-Soal dan Alamat Situs Internet • Studi Kasus Gabungan 2 : Mengestimasi dan Meramalkan Permintaan Listrik di Amerika Serikat

  3. PERAMALAN KUAlITATIF • Survey Techniques • Planned Plant and Equipment Spending • Expected Sales and Inventory Changes • Consumers’ Expenditure Plans • Opinion Polls • Business Executives • Sales Force • Consumer Intentions

  4. AnalISIS DERET WAKTU • Secular Trend • Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data • Cyclical Fluctuations • Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction • Seasonal Variation • Regularly Occurring Fluctuations • Irregular or Random Influences

  5. Trend Projection • Linear Trend:St = S0 + b tb = Growth per time period • Constant Growth RateSt = S0 (1 + g)tg = Growth rate • Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)

  6. Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = SeasonalAdjustment Average of Ratios forEach Seasonal Period = VariaSI MUSIMAN Ratio to Trend Method AdjustedForecast TrendForecast SeasonalAdjustment =

  7. VariaSI MUSIMAN Ratio to Trend Method:Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50

  8. Moving Average ForecastsRATA-RATA BERGERAK Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.

  9. PEMULUSAN EXPONENSIALForecasts Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.

  10. Root Mean Square Error Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method

  11. Barometric Methods • National Bureau of Economic Research • Department of Commerce • Leading Indicators • Lagging Indicators • Coincident Indicators • Composite Index • Diffusion Index

  12. Econometric Models Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal (Good X) QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e QX = Quantity of X PX = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population PS = Price of Muffins PC = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error

  13. Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation

  14. Input-Output Forecasting Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table

  15. DirectRequirements Input RequirementsColumn Total = Input-Output Forecasting Direct Requirements Matrix

  16. Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix

  17. = Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector

  18. Input-Output Forecasting Revised Input-Output Flow Table

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