Developing a framework for projecting and tracking the future of biodiversity in Alberta

1. Developing a framework for projecting and tracking the future of biodiversity in Alberta Dr. Erin Bayne Dept. of Biological Sciences University of Alberta

2. Canada and biodiversity • In 1992, Canada signed the Convention on Biological Diversity in Rio DioJanero. Committed us to: • conservation of biological diversity • sustainable use of biodiversity components • fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources • In 2002, we further committed to achieving a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. • Led to the Canada Biodiversity Strategy which on Page 4 states Canada will report on the status of biodiversity.

4. Validity of single species indicators K, keystones; ME, most expensive to maintain; MT, most threatened; FR, high age at first reproduction; MV most valuable real estate; HS, habitat specialists; MD, most data available; HG, habitat generalists; BC, big carnivore; R, riparian; C, charismatic; MC, multicategory tally; LL, long-lived; WR, most widespread; 5R, 5 random species; 10R, 10 random species; 20R, 20 random species % species protected Andelman S. J., Fagan W. F. PNAS 2000;97:5954-5959

5. The Challenge of Monitoring Biodiversity • Biodiversity is BIGGER than single species • Debate as to how well biodiversity can be represented by single species indicators • Small-scale research programs & uncoordinated monitoring cannot be “rolled-up” to describe biodiversity COST-EFFECTIVELY and reliably There are no short-cuts • to know what is “out there” we need a good plan for measuring it empirically

6. Alberta’s solution - ABMI • ABMI is a collaborative venture between government, industry, academia, and NGO’s • GOAL to coordinate monitoring in Alberta into a cohesive package that covers all of Alberta. • Developed over 15 year period with main push in 1998 • 4 year pilot phase from 2002-2006 • Became “fully” operational in 2007 • Goes beyond the traditional one-off projects for EIA’s or local scale monitoring that does not provide the big picture • Focus is on monitoring as cost-effectively as possible as many species as possible using a consistent set of protocols and data delivery system.

7. What ABMI Counts • Emphasis on “species assemblages” • ~2500 species surveyed • REPRESENTS AN ESTIMATED 3% of species in Alberta Phytoplankton Zooplankton Algae Springtails Mites Aquatic Invertebrates Subset of Arthropods Vascular Plants Mosses Lichens Fungi Birds Mammals Fish Travel Alberta Assemblages chosen based on ease of sampling, statistical properties, and importance to society

8. Survey Design • Systematic grid with a 20 km spacing • 1656 sites • Return interval of 5 years • 340 on-grid sites annually • Will detect changes at minimum of 1%/yr at provincial scale • Design is a random sample each year so can detect trends in short-term at provincial level • Will take longer period to assess trends in smaller subunits

9. Layout of ABMI Sampling Field Sampling Species and Habitats Remote Sensing

10. Layout of ABMI Sampling Aquatic Site Field Sampling Species and Habitats Remote Sensing

11. How ABMI reports on biodiversity Must haves: • Info. Available vs. Info. Overload • Simple messaging • Intuitive to decision makers • Non-judgmental language • Inform management – Relevant • Be scientifically credible • TODAY’S PRESENTATION • Information Pyramids • Standardizing Species Measures • Reference Condition • Forecasting • Reporting to public Photo by: S. E. Nielsen

12. INFORMATION PYRAMIDS Level 2 Primary Audience Level 6 • Politicians • Policy Makers • Land Managers • ENGO’s • Public Level 5 Level 4 Increasing Data Refinement, Analysis, Synthesis • Regional Managers • ENGO’s • Scientists • Policy Makers Level 3 • Scientists • Regional Managers Level 1

13. 8 other Groups • Mammals • Vascular Plants • Mosses • Lichens • Fungi • Invertebrates • Algae • Fish Example of Pileated Woodpecker - PIWO 6 State of Biodiversity + 5 State of Birds 1 of 220 species 4 State of Forest Birds Increasing Data Refinement, Analysis, Synthesis 1 of 100 species 3 State of Birds That Depend on Deadwood 1 of 15 species State of Pileated Woodpecker 2 1 Abundance of PIWO In Boreal Forest Occurrence of PIWO In Boreal Forest

14. Species Indices SIiis the species intactness index for species i, Oithe abundance of species I under observed footprint levels, Rithe predicted abundance for species iunder reference conditions. Oi/Ri when Oi<Ri(“decreaser” species) Ri/Oiwhen Oi>Ri (“increaser” species). A value of 50%, for example, means species is half as abundant as reference, or twice as abundant. Allows comparison across taxa that differ in methods of measurement.

15. What should reference be? – Time Zero We are not first to do this. BTO, uses approach for British birds They set starting point to 1970 when certain type of monitoring began Ignores fact system may already be less than intact Gregory et al. 2004

16. Lynx Expected values for lynx under intact conditions Intactness |O - E| Observed values for lynx in a region Relative Abundance 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 2 Road density (km/km ) What could reference be? - Intactness

17. Another key difference from British Birds: Indicators can exceed reference Gives impression things are getting better

18. 0 4 Road density (km per km2) That may not always be true: Invaders & generalists Relative Abundance White-tailed deer have far exceeded what is expected for boreal Alberta. If we used standard metrics like richness this would be counted as an increase in biodiversity. IS THIS WHAT WE WANT?

19. Evaluating effectiveness:Why this index vs. others? • Species richness • Number of species • Abundance of individuals in guild • Sum of number of individuals regardless of species • Diversity indices • Shannon • Simpson • Multivariate – Community composition • PCA • Mantel Test

20. Simulation results Traditional diversity indices are unsuitable for monitoring intactness as they don’t change much. Multivariate indices are highly sensitive to detectability.

21. Can we predict the future value of biodiversity in Alberta?

22. What can be done with current data

23. Detailed studies by U of A

24. Model simulation

26. Bird communities into future

28. Does the index make sense to the general public? Circles are agriculture, squares are energy, triangles are forestry, and diamonds are urban. Open symbols are 1 km2 scale, closed symbols are 25 km2 scale

29. Conclusions • By using existing species-habitat relationships we can make clear predictions about biodiversity change now & in future • Monitoring provides the most robust test of whether these predictions are accurate. • When predictions are not met requires an adaptive monitoring strategy to identify why deviations occur. Fundamental to making monitoring useful.

30. Partners Bighorn Wildlife Technologies Ltd. Mirkwood Ecological Consultants Ltd.

31. Partners