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Simulation et prevision du temps

Simulation et prevision du temps. Dominique Marbouty Head, Operations Department European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast dominique.marbouty@ecmwf.int http://www.ecmwf.int. Agenda. The current situation What is ECMWF?: activity, requirements

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Simulation et prevision du temps

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  1. Simulation et prevision du temps Dominique Marbouty Head, Operations Department European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast dominique.marbouty@ecmwf.int http://www.ecmwf.int 9th ORAP Forum

  2. Agenda • The current situation • What is ECMWF?: activity, requirements • Past evolution of ECMWF’s computer means • Comparison with other NWP centres • Future evolution • Requirements • Schedule • The main issues 9th ORAP Forum

  3. Member States Belgium The Netherlands Denmark Norway Federal Republic of Germany Austria Spain Portugal France Switzerland Greece Finland Ireland Sweden Italy Turkey Yugoslavia United Kingdom Co-operation agreements or working arrangements with: Croatia Iceland WMO ACMAD Hungary Slovenia EUMETSAT 9th ORAP Forum

  4. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Background 1967European Council of Ministers propose co-operation in science and technology 1969Expert group in meteorology propose ‘European Meteorological Computing Centre’ 1971Report on ‘EMCC’ : Net benefit of £100m per annum at 1971 prices Establishment 1975ECMWF convention in force 1978Headquarters building completed Start of operational activities 1978Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A) 1979Start of operations (N48 grid point model) 1983T63 / L16 spectral model 1983CRAY X-MP/22, IBM data storage system 1985T106/L19 spectral model1985CRAY X-MP, DEC telecommunications system (VAX)1990 CRAY Y-MP8/8-641991 T213 / L31 spectral model 1992CRAY C90 - ocean wave forecasting 1993Ensemble prediction system1996 Fujitsu VPP300-C and VPP700-461997 Fujitsu VPP700-1161999 Enhanced Fujitsu VPP system 9th ORAP Forum

  5. ECMWF in a few figures • Participants: 20 States • Age: 25 years • Staffing: 200 persons • Budget: 25m £ • Model resolution: 60 km • EPS: 50 elements 9th ORAP Forum

  6. ECMWF’s principal objectives • development of numerical models for weather forecasting • daily distribution of forecasts to its Member States • development of seasonal forecasting • collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data • allowing research staff to access these archives from remote sites • providing computer resources to Member States 9th ORAP Forum

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  9. IFS/ARPEGE • NWP package developed jointly by ECMWF and Météo-France • includes forecast model, 4D-Var assimilation system, ensemble prediction system • Medium range forecast: TL319 L60 (60 km) • 4D-Var: TL319/T63 (60/300km) • EPS: TL159 L40 (120km) 51 members • SF: atm TL95 (200km) ocean 2ox2ox20 9th ORAP Forum

  10. FUJITSU VPP700 (116 PEs) FUJITSU VPP700E (48 PEs) IBM SP FUJITSU VPP300 (9 PEs) HIPPI FDDI FUJITSU VPP300 (4 PEs) SGI Challenge SGI Origin 2000 IBM RS/6000 Router VAX HP 9000 E T H E R N E T Firewall Router Router DEC WWW PCs Router SGIs SGIs TCP/IP DECNET JANET/INTERNET MEMBER STATES 9th ORAP Forum

  11. ECMWF Supercomputer Growth 9th ORAP Forum

  12. The current ECMWF’s computers • Fujitsu VPP 700/116 peak 255 Gflops sustained 80 Gflops • Fujitsu VPP 700E/48 peak 115 Gflops sustained 35 Gflops • Fujitsu VPP 5000/38 peak 365 Gflops sustained 110 Gflops ____ _____735 ~225 • From next August • Fujitsu VPP 5000/100 peak 960 Gflops sustained 288 Gflops ____ _____ 1330 ~400 9th ORAP Forum

  13. Other NWP Centres • UKMO SGI T3E900 /876 pk 788 Gf st ~79 Gf SGI T3E1200/636 pk 763 Gf st ~76 Gf _________ ______1550 Gf~155?Gf • DWD SGI T3E1200/812 pk 974 Gf st ~97? Gf • Météo-France Fujitsu VPP5000/31 pk 298 Gf st ~90? Gf • NCEP IBM SP/768 pk 614 Gf st ~45?Gf 9th ORAP Forum

  14. The targets setfor period 1999 to 2008 • an extension of the skill of the deterministic forecast, as measured by the NH 500 hPa height field reaching 60%, by one day; • a gain of one day at D+6 in the Brier skill-score for EPS-based probabilistic forecasts of moderate 850 hPa temperature anomalies (4K or larger) over Europe; • preparation by 2003 of an assessment of seasonal forecast skill over the last 40 years; • improving timeliness and reliability of product dissemination; • provision of good forecasts of severe weather towards day 4 or day 5 - this requires the development of a suitable performance evaluation relating to severe weather. 9th ORAP Forum

  15. Approach • the development of an increasingly accurate earth-system model, using efficient and economical numerical methods together with a comprehensive and exhaustively-validated physical parameterisation package; • the development of improved data assimilation systems employing the most advanced mathematical methods to extract information from in-situ data and from operational and research satellites; • the development of improved EPS techniques for medium-range, extended-range and seasonal forecasting. 9th ORAP Forum

  16. Development of the operational system-2000 to 2001 • a 60-level TL511 (40km horizontal resolution) 4D-Var data assimilation system, with analysis increments corresponding to the inner loop resolution of TL255 (80km); • a Reduced Rank Kalman Filter (RRKF) to provide estimates of flow-dependent background and analysis errors; • a 60-level TL511 (40km horizontal resolution) deterministic model; • a 60-level TL255 (80km horizontal resolution),100 elements, EPS model; • a 60-level TL95 (120km horizontal resolution) atmospheric/ocean model for seasonal prediction. 9th ORAP Forum

  17. Next developments • By 2001 - the effective utilisation of METEOSAT Second Generation geostationary satellite data will require a move towards a resolution of 40 km for the global analysis/forecast system employing 90 levels • By 2003 - full use of a 30 km 90 level system to enable effective use of data from Europe’s polar orbiting METOP satellite • By 2008 - doubling of the horizontal resolution to 20 km and increased vertical resolution will improve the exploitation of data from the high resolution satellite-borne sounders such as IASI and AIRS and other high resolution data over land 9th ORAP Forum

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  19. Draft schedule for the next computer • December 2000: specifications decided by ECMWF’s Council • 2001: run Invitation To Tender (ITT) • December 2001: decision • 2002: installation, parallel run, move operations to new machine 9th ORAP Forum

  20. The preparation of the ITT • Facilitate competition: RAPS • RAPS6 to be issued this May (includes 4D-Var) • Vector / Scalar : open choice • code adaptation is being prepared 9th ORAP Forum

  21. Growth in the ECMWF archives Petabytes Storage growth in petabytes 9th ORAP Forum

  22. Conclusions • Exploitation of the current Earth System Modelling capabilities and of the full information content of new satellite data will require substantial computer resources - the benefit will vastly improved forecast from a few days to a few seasons ahead • The HPC could be acquired provided budgets are maintained in real-terms. • Managing petabyte archives will be a major challenge. 9th ORAP Forum

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