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A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policies James Woodcock

A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policies James Woodcock University of Cambridge 24/01/2012. Where does modelling fit?. Where does modelling fit?. ITHIM. ITHIM. California Bay Area.

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A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policies James Woodcock

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  1. A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policies James Woodcock University of Cambridge 24/01/2012

  2. Where does modelling fit?

  3. Where does modelling fit?

  4. ITHIM

  5. ITHIM

  6. California Bay Area Maizlish N, Woodcock J, Co S, Ostro B,Fanai A, Farley D. Health Co-Benefits and Transportation-Related Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Bay Area: Technical Report. California Department of Public Health, November 2011.

  7. England & Wales Scenarios

  8. 2030: A Typical English Street?

  9. Physical Activity Exposure Modelling Baseline Vision 1 Median:9 min Median:14 min Vision 2 Vision 3 Median:30 min Median:19 min

  10. Dose Response Relationship: CVD Derived from Hamer et al Br J Sports Med 2008;42:238-243

  11. Road Traffic Injury Modelling Methods Striking Vehicle b pm c d h Bicycle b kbb kbp kbm kbc kbd kbbPedestrian p kpb kpp . . .. Motorbike m kmb kmp kmm . . . Car c kcb etc . . . . Bus d kdb. . . .. HGV h khb . . . . . NOV nkb . . . . . Injured party

  12. Methods development • Multiple health pathways • Physical activity: • Age specific distributions • Non-linear dose-response relationship • Morbidity not just mortality • Injuries: • Sensitivity to motor vehicle volume • Inclusion of speed

  13. England & Wales Results

  14. Impact

  15. Modelling Geographical Variation

  16. Modelling Policies

  17. Next Steps

  18. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This work was undertaken by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. In addition acknowledge support from the California Public Health Department and Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling Project (EPSRC funded)

  19. Dose Response ARR: Impact on CVD

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