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Two Key Questions

Two Key Questions. Why do some organizations and individuals choose terrorism as a strategy to further their political agendas? Who joins terrorist organizations and why?. Why Do Organizations Choose Terrorism?. Strategic or Instrumental Model Realist Model The Democracy Factor

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Two Key Questions

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  1. Two Key Questions • Why do some organizations and individuals choose terrorism as a strategy to further their political agendas? • Who joins terrorist organizations and why?

  2. Why Do Organizations Choose Terrorism? • Strategic or Instrumental Model • Realist Model • The Democracy Factor • Ethno-nationalism • Expectations-Frustration-Aggression • Resource Mobilization Theory

  3. 1. Strategic or Instrumental Model Cost Benefit Analysis

  4. Israel Pre-1967 Israel Post-1967 PLO Argument?

  5. 2. Realist Model • Power matters • The powerful ignore the weak • Demonstrating your power makes you a player

  6. Demonstrating your power For a nation-state For a non-state actor Sept. 11, 2001 • North Korea ballistic missile test 2009

  7. 3. Democracy as a factor? • As target • Nationality of Terrorists • Negotiations? Gerry Adams, MP Velupillai Prabhakaran of Sinn Fein of the LTTE

  8. Palestine Flag Independent Tamil state? 4. Ethno-nationalism

  9. Ethno-nationalism

  10. 5. Expectations-Frustration-Aggression • Davies J-Curve Q U Expectations A L I Expectation Gap T Y O reality F L I F TIME E

  11. Arafat with Soviet Foreign Minister Gromyko, 1978 Hizbullah Chief Hassan Nasrullah with Iranian Pres. Ahmadenijad 6. Resource Mobilization Theory

  12. FARC rebels loading cocaine shipment Taliban cultivating opium Narco-terrorism

  13. Who Becomes a Terrorist and Why • Leaders vs. members • Full Time vs. Part Time OBL OBL Driver Salim Hamdan $200/month

  14. 1. Poverty and lack of Education? World’s Poorest Nations • Burundi ... $90 • Ethiopia ... $110 • Democratic Republic of Congo ... $110 • Liberia ... $110 • Malawi ... $160 • Guinea-Bissau ... $160 • Eritrea ... $190 • Niger ... $210 • Sierra Leone ... $210 • Rwanda ... $210From: World Bank data http://internationaltrade.suite101.com/article.cfm/world_s_poorest_countries#ixzz0PxjgeGro

  15. Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri al-Jihad, al-Qaeda Prof. Abimael Guzman, Shining Path Education?

  16. 2. Demographic Profile? • Age: 20-29 • Unmarried, except Salafists • Drop outs • Urban vs. Rural terrorists • Left vs. Right • Male vs. female

  17. 3. Ideology Left Right Religious Ulrike Meinhof, Timothy Ramzi Yousef, RAF McVeigh WTC, 1993

  18. 4. Economic Factors • Unemployment and Underemployment? • From: WTRG Economics, Oil Price History and Analysis, http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm

  19. 5. Transitions • From Council on Foreign Relations, http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2008/04/28/120-oil-and-the-rise-of-the-gulf/

  20. Transitions • Signing of Civil Rights Act, July 2, 1964

  21. 6. Alienation, Humiliation, Identity • Aum Shinrikyo’s Asahara Shoko and followers

  22. Uncle Khaled Sheiikh Mohammed Nephew Ramzi Yousef 7. Social Networks

  23. 8. Prison, Torture, Revenge Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (Ahmed al-Khalayleh), imprisoned in Jordan 1992-1997 AQ in Iraq, leader until 2006 9. Money FARC-controlled areas

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