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SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT

MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE. DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE CALIDAD Y EVALUACIÓN AMBIENTAL. WORK UNDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SPANISH MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND THE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MADRID (UPM). SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT. Dr. Julio Lumbreras jlumbreras@etsii.upm.es.

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SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT

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  1. MINISTERIO DE MEDIO AMBIENTE. DIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE CALIDAD Y EVALUACIÓN AMBIENTAL WORK UNDER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE SPANISH MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT AND THE TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MADRID (UPM) SPAIN’S EMISSION PROJECTIONS (SEP) PROJECT Dr. Julio Lumbreras jlumbreras@etsii.upm.es Geneve, 13th December 2006

  2. 1 - METHODOLOGY OUTLINE • 1.1. Aim of the project • 1.2. Activities and pollutants considered • 1.4. Projection methodology • 1.5. EmiPro • 1.6. Updating system • 2.1. Ex-post evaluation • 2.2. RAINS comparison • 2.3. Achievement of NOx Protocol • 2.4. Policies and Measures considered • 2.5. Possible causes for accomplishment delay • 3. CONCLUSIONS 2 - RESULTS

  3. 1.1.- Aim of the project Objectives • To develop a consistent methodology to evaluate Spain’s Emission Projections • To obtain the emission projections for the period 2001 – 2020 Critical aspects • A tool for decision making process • Projection vs. Prediction • - Activity projection vs. sectoral prospective • Integration of sectoral studies and activity projections • Full consistency with the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory (NEI) • Basis for national AQ modelling

  4. 1.2.- Activities Every activity under NEI using SNAP-97 nomenclature

  5. 1.3.- Pollutants Geneva Convention Sulphur oxides (SO2+SO3), measured as mass of SO2 Nitrogen oxides (NO+NO2), measured as mass of NO2 Ammonia (NH3) Volatile organic compounds (except methane) (NMVOC) Carbon monoxide (CO) Particulate Matter (as TSP, PM10 and PM2,5) Heavy metals: lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd) and mercury (Hg) Kyoto Protocol Carbon dioxide (CO2) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N2O) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) As mass of each individual compound In CO2 equivalent weighted according to its global warming potential

  6. 1.4.- Methodology - The projections are developed under EEA and US EPA framework • The usual projection level is national (SNAP activity) and in annual basis. • Macroeconomic variables are exogenous to the model • Projections are specifically calculated for each pollutant included in the activities considered. • Projections are associated to scenarios: • Starting considerations: • Technological • Socioeconomic • Statistical • Legislative • Hypothesis: • Activity rates • Emission factors • Emission trends = SCENARIO

  7. Business as usual: statistical methods are used to provide future emissions, activity rates and/or emission factors. The only information used are past data without taking into account possible effect of measures. It is a “reference” scenario and it has physical constrains. Equivalent to “without measures”. • Base: it includes every plan, policy or measure officially adopted that has any effect in atmospheric emissions. Equivalent to “with measures”. • Target: it incorporates additional measures aimed at achieving the targets included in both National Emissions Ceilings Directive and Kyoto Protocol. Equivalent to “with additional measures”. Scenarios

  8. Results CLRTAP Kyoto Protocol NEC Below threshold? Method for calculation Evaluated emissions Basic information Emission data (Inventory) Socioeconomic data Sectoral studies Legislation Technological aspects Target Hypotheses First Hypotheses - Activity Rate (A) - Emission factor (EF) - Emission (E) - Control & Growth Factors (CF & GF) - Activity Rate trend (A) - Emission factor trend (EF) - Emission trend (E) - Control Factor (CF) and Growth Factor (G) NO YES CONCLUSIONS Definition of a Target scenario SCENARIOS Base BAU SCENARIO Target

  9. Consistency criteria AR = activity rate SNAP 1 SNAP 2 SNAP ... AR 1 Σ Proj Group of related activities Hypothesis homogenization Proj 1 AR 2 Projection estimation Proj 2 Relationships, implications Macroscenario Proj ... Integration criteria • Development of ‘macroscenarios’ for coherence assurance • Once the relationship mapping has been clearly identified, it is only a matter of introducing consistency conditions into the hypothesis made under each scenario for a particular activity rate

  10. 1.5.- EmiPro • EmiPro (Emission Projections) is a software tool specifically developed to handle all the data and procedures involved in the SEP project. Last non-Beta version, currently v4.0 - Start screen -

  11. Design issues • Generally, projections are made on national basis • But, the setting of thresholds derived from CLRTAP and NEC Directive’s commitments must be done taking into account only a subset of the total national emissions Solution: • Implementation of a parallel database system inside EmiPro corresponding to the three different geographic and pollutant scopes. None of them stores NUTS-3 level information:

  12. SEP (1990-2000) Activity-rate historical datasets analysis and geographical disaggregation criteria CORINAIR DB 2004 General EMEP-Base Results • General: • National scope • All SEP’s project pollutants EmiPro (1990-2020) General EMEP - Parallel projection scheme and information stored in each database • EMEP-Base: • SNAP 11 (nature) emissions are excluded • NMVOC from SNAP 10 (agriculture) are excluded • Canary Islands, Ceuta and Melilla are not included • Domestic airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) and domestic cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are excluded • International airport traffic (LTO cycles<1000m) and international cruise traffic (h > 1000 m) emissions are included

  13. Main functionalities - Storage and recovery of past (history) emissions - Generation of projections from history data and algorithm factors - Storage and recovery of projected emissions - Reports generation

  14. Main functionalities Quality Assurance/Quality Check

  15. 1.6.- Updating system Projections 2001-2020 (NEI series 1990-year i-3) year i Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-2) Inclusion of new policies and measures 9-month delay Publication of new methodology (series 1990-year i-2) Projection update (NEI series 1990-year i-2) year i+1 Updated NEI (series 1990-year i-1) Inclusion of new policies and measures

  16. Conclusions from updating system • It is possible to obtain consistent emission projections 9 months after NEI publication • New policies and measures are included into emission projections as they appear vs. NEI annual updates Other updates • Base year intended to be changed every 5 years • Temporal scope is extended, if necessary, when the base year is updated • Historical data up to new base year are included • Previous projected series are kept

  17. 2.1.- Ex-post evaluation • Each 2 years: • Projection values are checked against official NEI estimates • Comparison at group and national level • Deviation analysis: • a) due to trend estimation (non-updated NEI) • b) due to methodological issues (updated NEI)

  18. 2.2.- RAINS comparison • Development of a 4-level hierarchy nomenclature (sub-SNAP = SEP) • Mapping RAINS-SEP (biunivocal correspondence) • Comparisons: • Activity rate • Technology penetration and emission factors • NEC emissions Fuel = F Technology =T Reduction measure =M 01/01/01/01 SNAP PP_EX_OTH-BC1-NOC SEP Power Plant (SNAP) Existing (T) Other boiler type (T) Brown Coal (F) No Control Measure (M)

  19. 2.3 NOx Protocol accomplishment Accomplishment in 2009-2010 NOx Emissions

  20. 2.4 Policies and measures included in base scenario

  21. Effect of Policies and Measures on NOx emissions

  22. Energy sector

  23. Industrial sector

  24. Transport sector

  25. Waste sector and agriculture sector

  26. 2.4 Possible causes for accomplishment delay * Amann et al. November 1999. “Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone in Europe”. Report number “Lucht & Energie 132” from the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, Department for Air and Energy. The Netherlands. • Most of the drivers were underestimated • Projected NOx emissions by PJ consumed in 2010 (153 t/PJ) will be lower than the value associated to 1999 negotiations (162 t/PJ) • SEP and IIASA estimates show a reasonable agreement

  27. * Total National ** Data from 2004

  28. 3.- Conclusions • Spain has a consistent methodology to evaluate emission projections • A tailored software tool (EmiPro) supports data management, quality checks and report generation • A specific nomenclature (SEP) has been developed based on a SEP-RAINS mapping • Spain’s projections have been compared against RAINS results using this mapping and the trends are very similar • NOx protocol could be accomplished between 2009-2010 (Base scenario) • Measures considered would reduce 600 kt in 2010 (2909 kt from 2001) • Difficulties in the achievement could be partly explained by unrealistic projection of driver trends during negotiation

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