Weather and Emergencies Preparation, Response, Recovery

1. Weather and EmergenciesPreparation, Response, Recovery Northwest Response Forum Dryden, Ontario Geoff Coulson Warning Preparedness Meteorologist April 6, 2011

2. Contents • Severe Weather Watch/Warning Program • Warning Preparedness Meteorologist (WPM) Program • Risk Communication • Staying on Top of the Weather • Future Weather Trends

3. Ontario Storm Prediction Centre - Toronto

4. Special Weather Statements • Unusual weather (thunderstorms in January) • Large areas of dense fog • Approaching storm system still a few days away • Weather which will approach but not meet weather warning criteria • Summary of a recent weather system (i.e. snow amounts, tornado locations etc…)

5. Weather Watch vs. Weather Warning • Weather Watch means there is the potential for severe weather --- Be Alert • Weather Warning means that severe weather will soon occur or is occurring --- Take Action

6. Scale of a Summer Storm One storm covering part of a county

7. Snow Heavy Snow L Freezing Rain X Rain Showers Scale of a Winter Storm One storm covering thousands of square kilometres

8. Short-Fuse vs. Longer Lead Time Short-Fuse…perhaps minutes… Longer lead time…perhaps hours

9. Warning Preparedness Meteorologist (WPM) Program • WPM Motto • Take full credit when the forecast is right • Blame Weather Centre when the forecast is wrong

10. Geoff Coulson Peter Kimbell WPM’s – Environment Canada’s Face to Clients

11. Roles of the WPM… WPM’s Weather Centre Client/Media Requests

12. Roles of the WPM • Working with Emergency Management Organizations • Emergency Management Ontario • Municipalities/Townships/Regional Governments • Conservation Authorities • Provincial/National Parks • Provision of presentations • Summer/winter severe weather • Staying on top of the weather • Review of recent weather in different parts of the province • Explanation of various weather bulletins

13. Roles of the WPM – Emergency Exercises • Provision of mock weather bulletins for emergency exercises of both large scale (i.e. Nov. 2008 Trillium Response – Northwestern Ontario) and small scale (Town of Markham) • Weather bulletins to “set the tone” in pre-exercise package • Weather bulletins presented in chronological order during exercise • Mock bulletins provided for “weather-centric” emergencies as well as other types of emergencies that are complicated by weather

14. Roles of the WPM – Storm Damage Surveys • Tornado vs. Downburst • Rating of Damage on Fujita Damage Scale • Length/Width of Damage • Used to verify our Watches/Warnings • Used to learn more about severe spring • and summer storms

15. Roles of the WPM • WPM’s in contact with a variety of clients • Feedback to EC • What we are doing well • Client concerns • Help shape new products/services

16. CANWARN Storm Spotters and Ontario Provincial Police

17. CANWARN Training Northwestern Ontario Spring 2011 • Week of June 13th • June 13 Thunder Bay – 7 PM - McIntyre Building Rm. 195, Confederation College • June 14 Fort Frances/EMO • June 15 Kenora • June 16 Dryden • Training session about 3 hours long • No cost involved • Training includes • How thunderstorms form • Severe vs. non-severe storms • Reporting Procedures • Safety

18. Targeted Weather Info • Emergency Managers and Responders have live access to the Weather Centre 24/7 to access updated weather information related to emergencies caused by weather or complicated by weather • Unlisted number to access Weather Centre 416 739-4420 • Warning Preparedness Meteorologists (WPM’s) • Geoff Coulson Toronto – 416 739-4466 – geoff.coulson@ec.gc.ca • Peter Kimbell Ottawa – 613 949-8284 – peter.kimbell@ec.gc.ca

19. Risk Communication

20. Risk Communication Challenges • Storms with little or no warning or occurring overnight • How bad will this storm really be? • Proper descriptive words • Historical context (i.e. worst storm in 5 years…) • How best to describe potential impacts • Series of canned phrases • Phrases attuned to given situation • Public’s perception of a given storm • May not match with EC warning criteria • Can differ greatly from community to community • Social media means EVERYONE can (and does) comment

21. Risk Communication Challenges • Weather Centre may not have full appreciation of significance of a given event • Very localized • Difficult to get precipitation amount estimates • Example – March 6 to 8 2011 Snowfall in Thunder Bay area • Official Snow Totals for March 6, 7 and 8 in Thunder Bay between 20 and 25 cm • Unofficial Snow Totals from surrounding area (Kakabeka Falls, Pearl etc..) on the order of 40 cm or more Images Courtesy of the WeatherNetwork

22. Need to Tap into Social Media • Twitter • Facebook • Blogs • Discussion Lists • Web Cams • Explosion of information available to be used in real-time by the Weather Centre to better comprehend weather impacts in local communities • Need to develop more efficient/effective ways to find, quality assure weather comments and factor them into current and forecast conditions

23. Weather Centre of the Future • Public Desk • Marine Desk • Severe Weather Desk • Social Media Desk? • Information from clients • Information to clients

24. 2010 Tornado Event – June 6 Leamington • 4 tornadoes confirmed in the Harrow, Leamington area of Essex county • 1 F2, 2 F1, 1 F0 • Tornadoes occurred around 3 AM • Public concerns about notification for nocturnal storms

25. Leamington Tornadoes – Public Alerting If the warnings go out at 2:30 AM…how do I hear about them?

26. 2010 Tornado Event – June 23 Midland • Event Occurred between 6:15 and 6:30 PM • No lead time on Warnings • First warning issued around 6:40 PM • Hits Trailer Park at south end of Town • Rated F2 (peak winds 180 to 240 km/h)

27. Impacts: Snow Squalls Dec 5 to 9 2010 December 7, 2010 West Lorne From theweathernetwork.com

28. Impacts: Snow Squalls Dec 5 to 9 2010 December 8, 2010 London From Twitter

29. “402 Snow Squall Event” – Dec 12 to 15 2010 • Multi-day event • Long-lived whiteout conditions…snow accumulation not the main issue • Plows had to be pulled off the highway • Many people used to hearing Snow Squall Warnings • Most Snow Squall warnings mention whiteouts, blowing snow, large accumulations resulting in dangerous driving conditions

30. “402 Event” • Difficult to impart in the warnings how “out of the ordinary” and particularly dangerous the “402” Event was even as it unfolded • 1 in 30 year event? • Full scope of event not understood/ignored by some • Road barriers moved by motorists so they could continue their trip • Failure to understand or failure to communicate?

31. Groundhog Day Storm – Wed Feb 2 2011 • Not quite what was forecast for much of Southwestern & Southcentral Ontario • Wiarton, Hamilton, portions of Eastern Ontario had significant snowfall and blowing snow • But worst was over in many areas before 6 AM Feb 2 • Many cancellations based on storm lasting longer • Difficult to “pull back” once initial statements out (starting Sunday) • The words “near-blizzard” and “blizzard” very rare/evocative

32. Warning Program Re-engineering • Warning Re-Engineering Program Underway • Total overhaul to warning system • Bulletin preparation – content - significance • Bulletin dissemination • Want to differentiate level of severity of a given storm to key clients and the public • Vigilance Map…tiered approach to warnings… • Green - OK • Yellow - Warning • Orange – Significant Warning • Red – Rare, Particularly Dangerous Warning

33. Warning Impact Statements • Link impact statements to level of message • Strong tornadoes could cause serious injury or death • Intense snow squalls causing zero visibilities and extremely dangerous driving conditions • Freezing Rain/High Winds resulting in widespread power failures • Snow resulting in potential office/school closures • Short duration, high intensity rainfall could produce… • difficulty driving/hydroplaning • Localized flooding

34. Warning Program Re-engineering • This is a multi-year project • Will be looking to engage key clients in this process • Client feedback will be important in assessing/understanding weather impacts and building a database of what type of weather constitute the various weather warning tiers (i.e. green, yellow, orange, red) • In the tiered warning system the “402” Event would likely have constituted a level red given its relative rarity and severity

35. Staying on top of the Weather

36. Internet Access to Weather Info • Weatheroffice.gc.ca • current watches, warnings, advisories, special weather statements • current conditions, 24 hour trends, 7 day forecasts • Radar imagery • Much more…

37. WarningBattleboard Page automatically refreshes every 10 minutes

38. Weatheradio • Continuous broadcast of weather info • Line of sight broadcast…trees, hills may disrupt signal • Standby mode  Tone Alert when Warnings issued • Specific Area MEessaging – SAME - Get the Warnings for YOUR area • Special frequencies…so require a special receiver • Geoff.Coulson@ec.gc.ca

39. E-mails of Svr Wx Watches/Warnings • E-mail of watches/warnings available from Environment Canada for key decision-makers • Geoff.Coulson@ec.gc.ca

40. Future Weather Trends

41. Ontario – 4 Full Seasons of Weather

43. More Severe Weather? • More awareness by the public • 24 Hr news cycle • Numerous shows about severe weather • More reports • Cameras everywhere • Plus YouTube, blogging, tweeting etc… • More people in various parts of the province • More infrastructure (some of it aging…) • “Perhaps in recent years we are finally getting a better understanding of the amount of summer severe weather that actually occurs in Ontario”

44. Climate Change Impacts in the Great Lakes Basin • Research continues to better understand what changes will occur in the coming decades

45. Precipitation • Increase in intensity and frequency of heavy rainfalls • Increase in frequency and severity of drought • More precipitation in the form of rain/freezing rain as opposed to snow during the winter • Greater chance of “ice storm” type events

46. Temperature • Increase in annual/seasonal temperature • Increase in number of hot days (T >= 32 Deg C) and heat waves • Increase in number of heat-related mortalities • Decrease in number of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperatures

47. Great Lakes • Increase in water temperatures (increase in lake effect snow?) • Decline in water levels

48. More Extremes? • Thunderstorms? • Tornadoes? • Snowstorms?