Association of State Floodplain Managers San Antonio, Texas May 22, 2012

1. Large Scale Nonstructural Programs - Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast – 2012 Update • Association of State Floodplain Managers • San Antonio, Texas • May 22, 2012

2. Why Should We be Concerned with Louisiana? • The problem is big, immediate and of national significance • 90% of nation’s outer continental oil and gas • 20% of nation’s waterborne commerce • 26% (by weight) of commercial fisheries • 5 million migratory waterfowl’s winter habitat • The solution is first of its kind and comprehensive • We can all learn from the process

3. Coastal Louisiana is Facing a Crisis – Land Loss Over 1,800 square miles lost since the 1930’s Over 1,700 square miles lost in next 50 years

4. Coastal Louisiana is Facing a Crisis – Storm Damage • Recent Storms • Katrina (Aug 2005) • Rita (Sept 2005) • Gustav (Aug 2008) • Ike (Sept 2008) • Future Risk (50 years) Estimated Annual Damages between $7.7B and $23.4B • Some communities targeted for 100 year protection could experience an increase of up to four feet of flooding in a 100 year event by Year 50 under the moderate scenario. Storm Tracks in the Gulf of Mexico Gulf of Mexico - Historical Storm Tracks

5. Response: Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

6. The Plan Builds on Other Efforts

7. 2012 Master Plan Update Provides New Elements • Detailed assessment of the future if we take no new action • Expanded portfolio of solutions available to coastal residents through nonstructural protection measures • Evaluation of hundreds of candidate project ideas • Use of innovative tools to identify the best projects and the most effective use of dollars • Large scale solutions that address the root causes of land loss and reduce flooding risk for coastal communities • Additional guiding objective that reflects the importance of Louisiana’s working coast

8. Seven Predictive Models

9. 2012 Master Plan Development CPRA Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Master Plan Senior Decision Team Master Plan Delivery Team Science & Engineering Board (MP-SEB) Planning Tool Technical Advisory Committee Framework Development Team (FDT) Project Effects Models Technical Advisory Committee Modeling Workgroups (7) Stakeholders

10. Looking 50 Years Out… • Flood Protection: Reduce economic losses from storm surge… • Natural Processes: Promote a sustainable coastal ecosystem… • Coastal Habitats: Provide an array of habitats... • Cultural Heritage: Sustain the unique cultural heritage… • Working Coast: Promote a viable working coast …

11. Identifying Projects • Developed projects from existing concept plans • 1500 projects reviewed • 418 projects evaluated • 145 projects in the draft plan • Nonstructural concepts had to be developed

12. Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects • First, establish risk reduction targets • Identify project areas and attributes • Develop conceptual projects • Evaluate the projects and scenarios

13. Flood Risk Reduction Across the Coast • Risk reduction targets established for each coastal community to guide investments 500-year protection 100-year protection 50-year protection • Focus on economic losses due to flooding of built infrastructure and crops

14. Risk Reduction Targets • Determine population density of census blocks • < 1,000 people per square mile = 50 year • > 1,000 people per square mile = consider total population • Expand census blocks to community limits • Determine total population • < 3,500 people = 50 year (rural parish area) • > 3,500 people and < 75,000 people = 100 year (urbanized area) • > 75,000 people = 500 year (metropolitan area) • No guarantee that the level of risk reduction will be achieved.

16. Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects • First, establish risk reduction targets • Identify project areas and attributes • Develop conceptual projects • Evaluate the projects and scenarios

17. Project Areas • Each Parish and Community across the coast • Projects are typically implemented at local level • Each parish and community can be broken down into census blocks for evaluation

18. Nonstructural Project Attributes • Flood mitigation elevation (how high to floodproof or elevate and when to acquire) • Structure classification • 4 classes of residential • 4 classes of nonresidential • Participation rate • Project costs • Unit cost by class, square footage, and elevation • Duration of implementation • Uncertainty estimates on attributes

19. Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects • First, establish risk reduction targets • Identify project areas and attributes • Develop conceptual projects • Evaluate the projects and scenarios

20. FEMA Flood Depth FEMA Base Flood Elevation (FBFE) Census Block Centroid FEMA flood depth Ground elevation from DEM Census Block Centroid NOTE: Base Flood Elevations obtained from current effective FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps

21. Based on FEMA Flood Depth • Nonstructural projects consist of: • Nonresidential flood proofing (0 – 3 feet) • Residential flood proofing (0 – 3 feet) • Elevation of residential structures (3 – 18 feet) • Acquisition of residential structures (> 18 feet) • Each project has two versions • Elevate homes to BFE + 1 feet • Elevate homes to BFE + 4 feet

22. Project Concept • One mitigation technique per census block • Multiple census blocks per community

23. Evaluation of Nonstructural Projects • First, establish risk reduction targets • Identify project areas and attributes • Develop conceptual projects • Evaluate the projects and scenarios

24. Models Used to Estimate Annual Damage • Various landscape conditions • Wide range of possible storms (720 storms) • Surge and Wave models (ADCIRC): • Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment (CLARA) model

25. Compare Results to Targets • Nonstructural implementation costs and residual damages calculated at census block level • Reported for communities and parishes • Nonstructural projects compared with other protection projects • Which project or combination of projects achieves greatest progress towards target Elevated Residential House Being Constructed in Gentilly, Build Now NOLA

26. Progress towards Risk Reduction Target

27. EAD Reduction vs. Project Cost

30. Nonstructural Programmatic Measures • Programmatic measures not evaluated in planning tool, but included in Master Plan • Nonstructural program coordination and communication • Regulatory actions • Funding and support initiatives • Education and training programs Do not recreate the problem…. Levee Failure in New Orleans, USACE

31. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

32. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

33. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

34. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

35. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

36. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

37. Lessons Learned to Date: • High participation is critical for effective large scale nonstructural projects • Large nonstructural projects can have profound impact on sense of community • Care has to be taken to avoid environmental justice issues • More freeboard provides more protection, but not always necessary • Communication is critical and terminology is important (nonstructural confusion & implications of protection) • More data is needed • Costs (especially floodproofing) • Social impacts (especially for acquisition and relocation) • Effectiveness of programmatic measures • Impact on historic structures • Local Hazard Mitigation Plans need more detail • You have to know where you want to go in order to draw a map of how to get there….

38. Where is CPRA in the process? • Draft 2012 Master Plan Timeline • Early January:  Draft 2012 Coastal Master Plan posted on-line, hard copies available upon request • January 23 - 25:  Public meeting • February 25:  Public comment period ends • March 21:  Meeting of the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority to review and approve final plan • Early April:  2012 Master Plan submitted to Louisiana Legislature www.coastalmasterplan.la.gov

39. Questions Michèle Deshotels, Coastal Resource Scientist Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority michele.deshotels@la.gov (225) 342-3051 Harold E. Clarkson, PE, CFM Brown and Caldwell hclarkson@brwncald.com (803) 873-9708