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Aksa Enerji. The leading IPP in Turkey. Q4 2013 Earnings Presentation February, 2014 . Disclaimer.
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Aksa Enerji The leading IPP in Turkey Q4 2013 Earnings Presentation February, 2014
Disclaimer • AksaEnerjiÜretim A.Ş. ("AksaEnerji") has prepared this presentation material (the “Document”) for the sole purposes of providing information which includes opinions and estimates and certain forward looking projections and statements relating to AksaEnerji, the Turkish electricity market and other subjects (the “Information”). The Information has been compiled or arrived at in good faith from sources believed to be reliable as of the date of this Document, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The forward looking projections and statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties which may cause actual results to differ materially due to factors outside the control of AksaEnerji, which undertake no duty to update or revise any such projections or statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Neither the Document nor the Information can construe any investment advise, or an offer to buy or sell AksaEnerji shares. AksaEnerji expressly disclaims any and all liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this Document or the Information or for any omissions from Information or any other written or oral communication transmitted or made available. This Document and/or the Information cannot be copied, disclosed, reproduced or distributed for any purpose.
Contents • Q4 2013 Operational & Financial Results • 1 Executive Summary • 2 Quarter Highlights • 3 Operational Indicators • 4 Recent Developments • 5 Financial Performance • Appendix 1 Turkish power market • 2AksaEnerji overview
Executive Summary Sales volumes include sales derived from TEIAŞ’s Load Rejection Order (YAT: Yük Atma Talimatı) CUR includes capacity sales for frequency controls
We are the second largest IPP in Turkey with 2,066MW installed capacity IPPs by Installed Capacity (MW) Source: Information obtained from each IPP’s annual report or website. Publicly listedcompanies Share of Aksa Enerji in Installed Capacity of Turkey (MW) Share of Aksa Enerji in Annual Generation of Turkey (MWh) Share of Aksa Enerji in Annual Generation of IPPs (MWh) Source: TEİAŞ, company information. Aksa Enerji is one of the leading IPPsin Turkey with 11% market share in total generation of IPPs
Market Highlights • Electricity production in Turkey increased by 5% in 4Q13 compared to 4Q12. • In 2013 as a whole however, Turkey’s electricity consumption has increased by a mere 1.4% compared to 2012, which is short of Treasury’s expected GDP growth rate of 3.6%, a rare occasion in the last few years. Reasons for low growth rate are: • Favorable weather conditions • Gas shortage in December • Decrease in consumption of some of the heavy industrial users
Market Highlights • Although the demand has increased by 1.4%, the production of electricity has remained flat in 2013 compared to 2012 due to the decrease in exports and increase in imports. (Imports have increased by 1.6TWh, while exports have decreased by 1.7TWh.) • In 2013, 7,000MW new capacity came into the market. The slow down in consumption and continuing increase in supply have been reflected on electricity prices in the spot market. • Despite the gas shortage in December, the weighted average spot market electricity price was flat at 155TL/MWh in 2013, compared to 156TL/MWh in 2012.
Turkish power market Supply dynamics Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type and ownership (December 31, 2013) This Chart has been created in Excel. FILE NAME: 11aLD0423.xls SHEET NUMBER: 5, 6, 7, 8 DO NOT DOUBLE-CLICK andDO NOT UNGROUP To edit: Go to Excel, make the edits and then re-paste the chart to PowerPoint. Total installed capacity: 64.0 GW Breakdown of generation by fuel type and ownership (December 31, 2013) 2013 Generation: 239.3 TWh Natural gas is the dominant fuel type Share of the state is decreasing Source: TEIAS
Company Highlights • Although slightly overshadowed by lower than expected demand and spot prices, major operational indicators recorded a pleasing performance in Q4 2013. • Amongst the planned acquisitions of 3 operational power plants from Kazancı Holding, the acquisition of Kapıdağ wind farm has been completed. The other two power plants are awaiting EMRA approval. • Financing regarding the remaining turbine equipments for the 3 WEPP projectshas beenfinalized with leasing companies.
Company Highlights • 4MW of Belen / Atik 30MW wind farmproject has been commissioned and taken into commercial operation; bringing up the number of total operating power plants to 16, total installed capacity to 2,052MW in 2013 and additionally the second phase of this project, 14MW, has also been operational this month, increasing our current installed capacity to 2,066MW and total renewable capacity to 217MW. • Constructions of the 2 windfarms with a total installed capacity of 57MW will be operational this year step by step starting from April. • The construction of Bolu/Göynük lignite fired power plant, which started on 13 July 2012, continues as planned. This plant will have an installed capacity of 270MW and the first phase, 135MW, is expected to be operational in December 2014. The second phase, 135MW, is planned to become operational in 1Q 2015. As this plant will have an annual production volume of 2bn kwh, it will make a very significant addition to our EBITDA in 2015.
Capacity and Production Increases in Renewables and Local Fuel % of total installed capacity Wind Hydro Lignite Estimated Generation (GWh) • WEPP to be commissioned in 2014 2013 Capacity Increases Under Construction Acquisitions • 35 MW Kapıdağ WEPP (completed in June 2013, 24MW in commercial operation) • 13.4MW Akköy HPP • 24MW Siirt HFO 87MW WEPP • Belen 30MW, greenfield(4MW in commercial operation since Sep 2013 & 14 MW since Feb 2014) • Kıyıköy 27MW, greenfield • Sebenoba 30MW, extension • 147 MW HPP • Kozbükü, 62MW, greenfield (2016) • Sansa, 85MW, greenfield (2017) • 270 MW Lignite Fired PP (2x135MW) • Bolu-Göynük, greenfield (2014-2015) • Annual production volume: 2bn kwh
Customer Mix and SalesMore diversified and well balanced customer mix Customer Mix 2012 Total Sales Volume: 9.8 Twh 2013 Total Sales Volume: 9.1 Twh • Share of bilateral sales has increased from 40% to 60% in 2013, replacing exports. • Including Northern Cyprus and Affiliated Retail sales, total contracted sales reached 70% of total sales volume in 2013 vs 48% in 2012 * Sales volume includes sales derived from TEIAŞ’s Load Rejection Order (YAT: YükAtmaTalimatı)
Our sales mix is getting more diversified and secure, increasing our capacity utilization Capacity Utilization 44% 56% TWh 9TWh Sales to BSM 29% BSM 2.6 4.2 TWh Total ContractedSales 6.5 71% Contracted 86% 3.6 BSM 3.6 14% Contracted 0.6 0.6 2010 - Contracted Sales 2013 Average Sales Price (TL/MWh) 2013 - Contracted Sales • 245 bilateral customers(1) • 592 GWhcontracted sales • out of which 186 GWh is bilateral • 14% of total sales • 24,987 bilateral customers(1) • 6,5GWh contracted sales • 71% of total sales Total Contracted Average: 186 Total BSM Average: 178 • Bilateral customers are contracted by the affiliates of Kazancı Group. AksaEnerji has contracts with the affiliates of Kazancı Group.
At the same time, we are shifting bilateral mix towards more profitable commercial clients Evolution of Eligibility Limit # of Bilateral Customers (2) Increasing Contracted Volume Supported by Affiliated Distribution Regions 1,275 245 610 % of CommercialCustomers (3) 36% 64% 98% 81% 19.6x Further Room for Growth in Affiliated Regions (5) GWh 2003 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2005 2004 2013 2014 2015 24,987 Eligibility Threshold (MWh/Year) 9,000 5 4.5 0 25 5,996 64% 23% 77% Market Openness (1) 3,782 1,141% 2,303 Tariffs and Aksa Bilateral Sales Price (TL/MWh) 186 Electricity distribution regions of Kazancı Holding (4) 1.9m 5.6TWh ÇORUH AksaEnerji FIRAT Potential • Consumption of eligible customers divided by total consumption. • Bilateral customers are contracted by the affiliates of Kazancı Group. Aksa Enerji has contracts with the affiliates of Kazancı Group. • Commercial and household clients. (4) Includes actual contracted and sold till the end of November 2013 and an estimate for December. (5) Aksa Enerji figures based on latest numbersof customers and 2013 contracted volume while the figures of affiliated distribution regions are based on 2012. Total bilateral sales volume Industrial volume Commercial volume
Financial highlightsConsolidated income statement Net sales & EBITDA (TL mn) Operating income & Net income (TL mn) Source: IFRS financial statements
Financial highlights Net financial debt and repayment schedule Net financial debt (TL mn) Repayment schedule of short and long term notes (TL mn) Source: IFRS financial statements
Consolidated income statement * Source: IFRS financial statements
Consolidated balance sheet (TL mn) Source: IFRS financial statements
Consolidated statement of cash flows Source: IFRS financial statements
Operational Assets Installed capacity Power plant Licensed owner Fuel type MW (Current) Mardin 1Aksa Energy Fuel-oil 30.00 Mardin 2 Rasa Elektrik Fuel-oil 35.10 Northern Cyprus Aksa Cyprus Fuel-oil 120.00 İdilİdilİki Energy Fuel-oil 24.00 Total fuel-oil fired power plants 209.10 Antalya NGCC Aksa Energy Natural gas 1,150.00 Manisa NGCC Aksa Energy Natural gas 115.26 VanNGCC Rasa Energy Natural gas 114.88 Samsun Aksa Energy Fuel-oil conversion to natural gas 131.34 Ş.Urfa NGCC Rasa Energy Natural Gas 128.62 Total natural gas fired power plants 1,640.10 BalıkesirŞamlıBaki Wind 114.00 HataySebenoba Deniz Wind 30.00 ManisaKarakurt Deniz Wind 10.80 Ayvacık Ayres Wind 5.00 KapıdağKapıdağ Energy Wind 24.00 Belen / Atik Aksa Energy Wind 18.00 Total wind power plants 201.80 Çorum İncesuAksa Energy Hydro 15.00 Total hydro electric power plants 15.00 Total power plants 2,066
Ongoing Investments and Revised Licence Portfolio • Planned acquisitions from Kazancı Holding • Siirt24 MW operating fuel-oil PP • Datça 12 MW wind farm licence • Akköy 13 MW operating hydroelectricalPP • Construction work is in progress for one lignite fired PP and fourrenewable projects • 270 MW local lignite fired PP • 57MW wind farm • 147 MW hydroelectrical PP • 1,141MW of licencedprojects • 438MW of projects in exclusive negotiations to obtain licence post 2017