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The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund. Cormac Sheedy – Director of Sales, Fidelity, Middle East Brian Boyd - Business Development Director, Fidelity MultiManager March 2008. 1. Natural Resources: Why invest now?. 2. Natural Resources: How to invest?. 3.
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The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund Cormac Sheedy – Director of Sales, Fidelity, Middle East Brian Boyd - Business Development Director, Fidelity MultiManager March 2008
1 Natural Resources: Why invest now? 2 Natural Resources: How to invest? 3 The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund 4 The Riyad Capital Product Offering Contents
Natural Resources Why invest now?
Natural Resources: why invest now?Economic growth of emerging countries 100,000 Norway Sweden Denmark Japan Ireland USA Canada Australia France Belgium UK Spain Italy Germany 10,000 Portugal Per Capita GDP (2003 US$) 1,000 China India 100 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Years of Economic Development Natural Resources should remain a strong sector, driven by demand from India & China, which are at the beginning of their economic growth cycle Source: A. Gary Shilling & Co. Bubbles depict population (2003); Fidelity. This slide is provided for illustrative purposes only and may not be representative of the current position.
Natural Resources: why invest now?Urbanization • Natural Resource requirements change as populations migrate to cities for higher wages • No longer self sufficient, these migrants must compete in the world markets for natural resources • Consumers in these regions are creating demands on agriculture commodities and soft commodities RURAL LIFESTYLE URBAN LIFESTYLE Wages in China have nearly doubled over the past four years, outpacing the rate of growth of the economy* Source: *Forbes, 7th February 2007.
Natural Resources: why invest now?Infrastructure demands Emerging market demand is driving investment in large scale infrastructure projects including spending on roads… …construction… …railways… …transportation… …pipelines… …and electricity $21,700,000,000,000 of investment is estimated to go into emerging market infrastructure* Source: Morgan Stanley Research Report - research estimates 2008-2017.*
Natural Resources How to invest?
600 GLOBAL EQUITIES 500 COMMODITIES NATURAL RESOURCE COMPANIES 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Investing in Natural Resources:Past investment performance Global Equity vs. Commodities and Natural Resources Companies US$ Commodities and Natural Resources Companies have outperformed Global Equities Source: Datastream as at 31.01.08, MSCI WORLD U$ - PRICE INDEX; DJ AIG-Spot Commodity Index – PRICE Index; 1/3 MSCI WORLD ENERGY + 2/3 HSBC GLOBAL MINING.
Natural resource companies are involved in the exploration and procurement and refinement of raw materials. How to invest in Natural Resources:Natural Resources Companies • These companies have benefited from an increase in global demand of raw materials. • Good investment opportunities continue to exist for these companies as commodity prices remain high. Was buying oil or investing in oil refinery equipment makers most profitable over the last 3 years?
110 100 Oil Oil refinery equipment makers 90 80 USD / Bbl 70 60 50 40 30 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 How to invest in Natural Resources:Which performed better? …oil refinery equipment makers! Source: Datastream from 31.12.04 –31.12.07; Msci Acwi Oil,Gas&C.Fuel$ - Tot Return Ind (rebased to oil price); Msci Acwi En Eq & Svs $ - Tot Return Ind (rebased to oil price); Crude Oil-Brent Dated Fob U$/Bbl.
How to invest in Natural Resources:Physical commodities ENERGY METALS Industrial metals / Precious metals SOFT COMMODITIES AGRICULTURE
An estimated 2 power stations are being built in China a week** China and India together account for 72 percent of the projected increase in world coal consumption from 2004 to 2030.+ Over the past year, we have paid an average of about 20% more for our steel… we've been able to pass most…price rises on to ourcustomers.^ China's leadership have planned construction of 300,000km of new rural roads between 2006 and 2010, an increase of nearly 50%.^^ Investing in physical commodities:Which should you own? China imported a total of 1.49 million tons of refined copper in 2007, soaring 80.6 percent from the previous year* Source: *Chinamining.org, 23.01.2008. **BBC, 19 June 2007. +EIA – International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007. ^FT, 26 February 2008. ^^Economist, “New Socialist Countryside”, 14 February 2008.
Corn Ethanol Investing in physical commodities:Future opportunities • The fund provides exposure to the long-term growth of alternative energy • Is food the new fuel? • Price of corn, wheat and soy are increasing. Biofuels take off^ Price of Corn vs. Ethanol 500 4 Corn Ethanol 3.5 400 300 3 Cents/Bushel $/GAL 2.5 200 Ethanol a long-term fuel, not a passing fad* 2 100 1.5 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Source: Corn No.2 Yellow Cents/Bushel [L H S] vs Ethanol,USG Contract Del. 200 $/GAL [R H S]. Datastream from 01.01.00 to 31.12.07. *FT, 04.02.2008. ^San Francisco Chronicle, 27 February 2008.
Commodity • Ethanol • Increased global demand • Government subsidies • 100% increases in price in 2007 • Farmers unwilling to rotate crops due to corn prices • China • Biofuels • Prices highest in 34 years • Feed price increase and shortage • Countries stockpiling • Inventories at lowest level in 30 years • Export bands and tariffs • Prices are forecast to rise sharply • Increased global demand • Cost of feed (corn & grain) Investing in physical commodities:The increasing cost of the food chain Result Demand Drivers Supply Constraints
The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund Fund highlights
How to capture the best opportunities?The Natural Resources Fund • 50/50 blend • Combines natural resources companies with physical commodities • Actively managed – always looking for the next opportunity • Benefits • Reduce the volatility of a ‘pure’ commodities fund • Effective hedge against inflation • Effective hedge against a weakening US Dollar • Profit from new/green energy exploration
Fund composition Energy Companies 17% Physical Commodities 50% Mining Companies 33% The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund:Fund composition – positioned for growth • Fund’s Benchmark • 50% Dow Jones Commodity Index • 50% Natural Resource Equities • 2/3 HSBC Global Mining, • 1/3 MSCI World Energy • Only 33% of the fund’s target allocation is energy (Oil and Gas) • The fund is actively managed so you are invested in commodities and stocks that have the best outlooks Source: Fidelity. Figures correct as at 31.12.07
The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund:Physical commodities – focused on emerging demands Metals exposure 30% Energy companies 17% Physical Commodities 50% Silver Energy exposure 33% Natural Gas Gold Nickel Mining Companies 33% Zinc Crude Oil Copper Aluminium Gasoline Heating Oil Coffee Cotton Sugar Soft commodity exposure 9% Agriculture exposure 28% Livestock Soybean Oil Wheat Soybeans Corn Source: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showAigWeightings, Dow Jones - AIG Commodity IndexSM 2008 Commodity Index Percentages, 31.01.08.
The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund:Searching for the best companies Energy companies 17% Physical Commodities 50% Mining Companies 33%
The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund:Accessing experts around the world • Fidelity selects the specialist natural resource investment managers • You benefit from a variety of investment approaches from the different managers • 3 focused managers for natural resources companies; 3 focused managers for physical commodities • Access to leading commodity traders and investment managers from around the world The best managers…blended by experts
41.3% cumulative growth since inception The Riyad Capital Natural Resources Fund:Performance of the Fidelity Fund Fidelity’s Natural Resources Fund Performance since inception 50 40 30 % 20 10 0 -10 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Sector: Morningstar Commodity and Natural Resources. Index: FF MM Natural Resources Composite. Figures quoted are from Fidelity and Morningstar for the period ending 31.12.07 You should be aware the past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of a fund can go down as well as up so you may get back less than you invested. Performance is quoted in US Dollar terms on a NAV to NAV basis with gross income reinvested. you may get back more or less than this as a result of currency fluctuations.
The Riyad Capital Product Offering:The global options available to you Overseas (mature) US / Europe / Japan / UK / Global / Telecoms / Technology Overseas (emerging) Future Fund / South East Asia Local Saudi Equity / Gulf Fund / Riyad Money Fund Other asset classes Global Property / Natural Resources / International Bond International Fund Global exposure
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