Validation of €uro-Star Replacement Index.

1. Validation of €uro-Star Replacement Index.

2. Key Questions? • Does the Replacement Index work? • If I bought/selected a breeding heifer based on her parent average replacement index, how would she subsequently perform relative to an average animal? • Will genomics help improve the accuracy of the €uro-Star Replacement Index. • What additional value can the genotype data bring to the accuracy of purchase/selection, above information on parent average and owne performance data?

3. Replacement Index. Emphasis: Cow traits 71% Calf traits 29%

4. Data + Analysis. • 162,363 females that were born in 2011 and subsequently entered the suckler herd as female replacements. • Analysis of average performance of these females. • Compared performance of 5 star females, relative to this average. • Replacement Index roofs taken from; • December 2012 (parent average proof, “new” replacement index recalculated). • April 16 (parent average + own performance data) • June 16 genomic (parent average + own performance data + animals genotype).

9. Proofs for animals could change by €100 with more data.

10. Change in Stars Dec 12 => Apr 16

11. Extent of changes are less with genomics.

12. Change in Stars Apr 16 => June 16

13. Summary • The €uro-Star Replacement Index is an accurate predictor of future performance. • Use of genomics will add significantly to the accuracy of this prediction in the future. • Proofs for individual animals will continue to change. This is exactly in line with expectations, based on reliability. • Analysis supports moving to official genomic evaluations, from August 2016.

14. BDGP - Key Time-lines.

15. G€N€ IR€ AI Sires (n=73)

16. Beef Genomic Evaluations.

17. Update since last meeting • Survival trait given priority • Solution found based on a 2 step process similar to dairy genomic evaluations called SNP BLUP • Involves developing a “genomic key” based on informative breeding values • Given the progress with survival the same process was then applied to all 16 traits in the Replacement index

18. Update since last meeting 2 • New phenotypic data and pedigree up to middle of May 16 • 512k genotyped animals in database at start of May included of which 418k were beef genotypes • Evaluations were loaded to database last week • Test proofs for AI sires circulated

19. Process • Run single trait analysis for each trait (16 traits) • Removes any bias in ebvs derived from predictor traits • Use these uni-variateebvs to derive a “genomic key” for each trait • Apply that genomic key to all genotyped animals • Use a blending approach to combine with the non genomic evaluations

20. Training datasets by trait Criteria Genotyped animals with non genomic reliability > heritability from a single trait evaluation

21. Results • Run single trait analysis for each trait (16 traits) • Removes any ebvs derived from predictor traits • Using these univariateebvs to derive a “genomic key” for each trait • Apply that genomic key to all genotyped animals • Use a blending approach to combine with the non genomic evaluations

22. All genotyped AI sires >90% rel official (247)

23. All genotyped AI sires <50% rel official (422)

24. Experience from dairy • Average PTA (reliabilities in brackets) N=244

28. Next Steps. • Some young AI bulls not in file, new file to be circulated • Investigations necessary for some traits: • Mortality increase with genomics • cow liveweight increase with genomics • Update of new data, pedigree, genotypes • Validation of genomics where possible • Final set of proofs for end of July meeting