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WIOA Local Plan Modification / Update Workforce Alliance (5/18)

WIOA Local Plan Modification / Update Workforce Alliance (5/18)

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WIOA Local Plan Modification / Update Workforce Alliance (5/18)

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  1. WIOA Local Plan Modification/Update Workforce Alliance(5/18) NOTE: An update to tlte Environmental Scan is included following tltis page. It provides most recent information (as of 5/1/18) and servesto reinforce tlte original strategiesaddressedintlteoriginalplan.Toviewtlteoriginalplan,pleasegototlte Workforce Alliance website,www.workforcealliance.biz ModificationRequirements Provide tlte current status of MOUs and IFAsand development plans for post Jun e 30, 2018; Master MOU' s are completed and are on file with the Office for Workforce Competitiveness. We expect that all Infrastructure Cost Agreements will embedded in newly executed MOU's (as required by law), by June 30,2018. Provide a brief descriptionof tlte one-stop certification, process,and identification of certified one-stops. Identify recommendations to be implemented or pursued going forward based on tlte certificationreview,· Attached. Identify current career patltways and career pathways strategies supported by tltelocal Board and future planning activitiesto be pursued;and Attached. Provide acurrent matrix of WDB members. Attached. Additionally, this modification contains an updatedlisting of the region'sChief Electe dOfficials.

  2. Updated EnvironmentalScan

  3. Workforce Alliance 2016 WIOA LocalPlan 2018Update II. ENVIRONMENTALSCAN 1. Provide an analysis of the local area's economic conditions, including information on existing and emerging in-demand industry sectors andoccupations. INTRODUCTION The South Central Workforce Investment Area, encompassing 30 towns in South Central Connecticut, and the New Haven Labor Market Area (NHLMA), hasexperiencedastrongrecoveryfromtheeffectsofthegreatrecession, surpassingthat of the stateof Connecticut asa whole. As of March 2016, the region had recovered90.6% of the jobs lost as a result of the great recession, higher than the state'srecovery Table1:SouthCentral CTJobErosion vs.JobRecovery(March2016) ' WorkforceAllianceDataQuarterly,DataCorePartners LLCMarch2016 rateof76.7%butbelowthenationalrateof 161.4%.From2000to2016,the region's population fell from 736,392 to 730,652, a decline of0.8%. Connecticut's population declined by 0.1 % during the same timeperiod.1 TheSouthCentralregion'sunemploymentratehasfallen overthelastfiveyears from a high of 9.2% in 2010 to 5.0% in 2016. While this shows a substantial recovery, the unemployment rate remains higher than it waspre-recession (4.6 % in 2007).2 However,the number and rate of job openings are higher than pre-recession levels, and the overall labor force has increased by 1.8% since 2007.3 Table2showsthat,accordingtoa March 2016 report by Monster Government Solutions, total job postings in the region rose from the final quarter of 2014 to the finalquarterof2015by15,024(or Table 2: Job Postings bySub-Region: SouthCentral CT 2014-2015 2014 2015 %Change 58,767 60,782 3.4% 59,499 69,333 16.5% 17,506 20,681 18.1% New Haven GreaterNew Haven Rest of South Cent ral TOTAL 11.1% 135,772150,796 Key Labor Market Trends: MonsterGovernment Solution s,2016 11%) to 150,796 postings - an all-time high. The City of New Ha ven,which 1 U. S. Census Bureau, Popu lation Division. 2 In form ation for Workforce Inv estm en t Planning (archi ves). CT DOL Office of Research. 3 In forma tion forWorkforceInvestm ent Planning (archiv es). CT DOL Office ofResearch.

  4. represents40% oftheSouthCentralregion'sjobpostingvolume,experienced a3% increase in job postings from 2014 to 2015.4The region has also seen growth in the number of business establishments compared to pre-recession levels, reaching an all-time high of 21,100 in 2013 (an increase of 225 establishments since2008).5 The followingsections discuss economic and employment informa tion and trends, as well as demographic information relevant to Workforce Alliance's planning efforts to educateand train residents of South Central Connecticut in search ofemployment. EXISTING AND EMERGING IN-DEMAND INDUSTRYSECTORS Every two years economists at the Connecticut Department of Labor (CTDOL) Office of Research create ten-year industry and occupat ional employment forecasts. The most recent forecasts at the time of this document's publishing utilize2014dataasthebaseyear,andprojectemploymenttrendsouttotheyear 2024. The purpose of these forecasts are to assist students, schools, train ing programs, businesses, and governments to make informed planningdecisions. Industry Forecasts. The latest CTDOL forecasts project the highest growing industrysectorin theregiontobeHealthCareandSocialAssistance(aten-year growth of 7,273 new jobs), followed by Educa tional Services (5,312 jobs), Administrative, Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services (2,153 jobs), and Construction (2,144 jobs). Table 3, below, shows the topfive industriespredictedtogrowby thelargestnumberofjobsoverthenextten years. Table3:TopFiveGrowingIndustrySectors2014-2024 IndustrySector Cange Health and Socia lAssistance Educat ional Services Admin., Sup., Waste M an., Serv . Construction Accommodation & FoodServices CTDOL 2014-2024 Workforce Development Area EmploymentProjections Occupational Forecasts. The latest CTDOL forecasts projectEducation, Training, and Library Services to be the highest-growing occupationalcategory over the next ten years, growing by 3,257 jobs or 9.6%. The next highest occupational growth categories are Personal Care and Service occupations (3,022jobs,16.9%)andHealthcarePractitioners andTechnicians(2,422, 4 Key Labor M ark et Trends: Real-Time Labor Intelligence Resea rch for South Centr al CT. M onster Government Solutions, M arch2016. 5 Economic and Demographic Profile of the Workforce Allian ce Region. CERC2015.

  5. 9.0%).6 Table 4 shows the top five occupational categories predicted togrow by the largest number of jobs over the next tenyears. From 2010 to 2014, one of the occupational sectors predicted to grow the most by 2024 also experienced a significant positive aggregate dollar shift. The Health Care and Social Assistance occupational sector saw a $154.6 million shift during this time period.7 Aggregate dollar shifts signal growth (a positive shift) or decline (a negative shift) in a particular sector, and are calculated by multiplying job losses/gains by the average annualsalary. Table4:TopFiveGrowingOccupationalCategories2014-2024 CTDOL 2014-2024 Workforce Development Area EmploymentProjections 2. Provide an analysis of the employment needs of employers in those industry sectors andoccupations. Health and Personal Care Sector. Factors such as the passage of the Affordable Care Act, an aging population, as well as other demographic and workforce shifts have and will continue to fuel growth in the health and personal care sectors. As more Americans become insured, access to medical care will increase, leading to a more fiscally healthy health care system.8 Hospitals are the single largest employer within the health and personal care sector. The South Central region is home to the largest hospital network in the state of Connecticut, Yale New Haven Health. Additionally, rapid growth of rehabilitation services in traditional nursing homes is driving a need for ongoing specialized training within the healthcare sector. For instance, an increasing number of CNAs currently trained in caring for the elderly are in need of additional training in rehabilitation therapyservices. 6 CT DOL 2014-2024 Workforce Development Area EmploymentProjections 7 WorkforceAllianceDataQuarterly,September2015.DataCorePartners,LLC 8 U.S.Dept.ofHealthandHumanServices.http://www.hhs.gov/healthcare/facts-and-features/fact-sheets/aca­ is-working/index.html 3

  6. Relative to the state, the region's concentration of Health Care and Social Assista nce employment is1.15 times higher. Relative to thenation, Table5:JobPostings,SouthCentralCT2013-2015 Employer 2013 2014 2015 Yale-NH Hospital 4,388 3,157 3,490 Genesis Healthcare concentration of employment as well as high growth projections, WFA identifies Health Care andSocial 428438 427 MonsterGovernmentSolution sReport Assistanceasaprioritysectorintheregion.From2013to2015,fourofthetop fifteen hirin g employers in the region were in the Health Care and Social Assistancesector: Yale-New Haven Hospital (2nd most hires), Anthem, Inc. (3rd most),Medtronic(4th),andGenesisHealthcare(11th)(Table5). Educational Services. The South Central region' s concentr ation of employment in the educational services sector is 2.34 times higher than that of the rest of the state, and 4.10 times higher than nation al averages.10 This is due in large partto Yale University, the single largest employer in the region, which posted roughly 4,000 jobs annua lly from 2013-20151.1 As mentioned on page 2, CTDOL forecasts the educational servicessector to see the second-highest job growth in theregion.Theeducationaloccupationprojectedtogrowbythelargestnumber of jobs by 2024 are Postseconda ry Teachers. This occupation is predicted to add 2,360 jobs (16.6% growth) by 2024. Projected growth in this occupation is greater than the projected job growth for all other educational services occupations combined. While many occupations in the educational services sector havesignificant educational requirem ents, a large portion do not such as: information technology,financialservicesandbilling,andbuildinggroundsandmaintenance workers. Thesesuppor t occupation s will grow alon gside others inthe educational sector. WFA plans to partn er with communit y colleges to match employment needs with trainin g for thesesuppor t occupations. Thispartnership has the potential to create a two-genera tional solution, as the children of communit y collegeemplo yees may attend the collegetuition fr ee - paving the way for the next generation'ssuccess. STEM-related occupations remain amon g the hardest occupations tofill including: computer and mathematical, architecture, andengineering occupations. Connecticut employers' difficulty filling STEM-relatedoccupations mirro rs a nationwide issue. Accordin g to a 2014 report from the Brookings Institution,employersarespendingtwiceaslongrecruitingforSTEMpositions 9 CT DOL Office of Research analysis of Qu arterly Census o f Empl oyment and Wages (QCEW)data 1°CTDOLOfficeofResearchanalysisofQuarterlyCensusofEmploymentandWages(QCEW)data 11KeyLaborMarketTrends:Real-TimeLaborIntelligenceResearchforSouthCentralCT.MonsterGovernment Solutions, M arch2016. 4

  7. as compared to non-STEM positions. Among the 100 largest metropolitan areas intheUnitedStates,theNewHaven-Milford,CTmetro-arearanks21st(arank of 1 indicates the largest number of days) in the number of days it takes to fill a STEM-related job advertisement (39.9 days), 41st in the percentage of job advertisementsrequiringSTEMskills(39.8%),and14thintheshareofads requiring STEM skills and a sub-bachelor'slevel of education (14.7%).12 With some STEM skills training, these jobs represent potential employment for the portion of the population lacking a bachelor's degree. Employment in STEM fields continues to grow. For example, According to the U.S. Department of Commerce Economics & Statistics Administration, "Employment in STEM occupations grew much faster than employment in non-STEM occupations [from 2004 to 2014] (24.4 percent versus 4.0 percent, respectively), and STEM occupations are projected to grow by 8.9 percent from 2014 to 2024,compared to 6.4 percent growth for non- STEM occupations."13 Despite these opportunities and relatively higher salaries, the supply of workers with specific high-value skills needed by employers common to STEM occupations remains insufficient. Information Technology (IT) Sector. Information Technology represents one of theSouthCentralregion'ssuper-sectors.Withinthissector,ComputerSystems Design and Related Services occupations are projected to grow by a staggering 37.4% or 928jobs by 2024. Among low and mid-skill IT occupations, employers in the SC region posted 1,700 job ads in 2015, an increase of 152 ads (or 10%) over 2014.Colleges, universities, and professional schools represented the highest shareof job advertisements in2015. Table 7 shows the top five low to mid-level skill IT occupations in the SC region. Of note is the number of job advertisements forweb Table7:LowandMid-skillLevelITJobPostings, South Central2015 Occupation Share(%) Computer User Support Spec. WebDevelopers ComputerOperators Computer Network SupportSpec. Desktop Publishers 62% 36% 1% 1% 1% Monster GovernmentSolutionsReport developers decreased by 14% from 2014 to2015. Manufacturing Sector. The manufacturing sector faces two importantchallenges that also represent potential opportunities for the region: 1) manu facturers have unfilled positions due to current job-skills mismatches; and 2) manu facturers forecast future openings due to large-scale, long-ter m growth at Connecticut's flagship manufacturers (Electric Boat, Pratty & Whitney, Sikorsky) and their supply chains, as well as an aging and retiring workforce. At a 2016 WFA Manufacturing Focus Group, local manufacturers reported significant growth and signaled a need for skilled labor. Virtually all focus group attendees indicated that the lack of sk illed workers is inhibitin g their ability togrow. 12 Still Searching: Job Vacanciesand STEM Skills. Rothw ell, Jonathan. Brookings In stit ution, 2014. 13 STEM Jobs: 2017 Update. Economics & Statistics Administrati on of theU.S.Department of Commerce. 5

  8. Nearly every manufacturer surveyed for the 2017 Survey of Connecticut Manufacturing Workforce Needs expects to grow their workforce between2017 and 2019, as 98% of respondents expected to hire full-time employees by the end of 2019. Survey results indicate that manufacturers will have a demandfor 13,601skilled workersbytheendof2018.14WFAsupportsa range ofinitiatives to match jobseekers and manufacturers in need of skilled workers, including a partnership with the Eastern Connecticut Manufacturing Pipeline Initiative under which unemployed and underemployed residents of South Central Connecticut receive free, short-term, customized training that qualifies them for immediate placement in manufacturingemployment. 3. Provide an analysis of the knowledge and skills needed to meet the employment needs of the employers in the region, including employment needs in in-demand industry sectors andoccupations. Health-related Knowledge and Skills. The Health Care sector offers career pathway opportunities to residents, as entry-level jobs within the sector may lead to higher-paying careers. For instance, within the Personal Care and Service occupations category (projected to grow by 16.9% and 3,022 jobs by 2024), 56% (1,706) of those jobs are projected to be Personal Care Aides (PCA).15 PCAs, and a host of other health-related entry level positions (e.g. Personal Care Technicians, Home Health Aids, Nursing Assistants) offer workers opportunities to pursue careers rather than just a job. For example, a worker with experience as a Personal Care Aid could, through on-the-job training and further experience, progress to a role as a nur sing assistant or even a licensed practical or vocationalnurse. Many of these in-demand positions within the health and personal care sectors (e.g. Personal Care Aids, Nursing Assistants, Patient Care Technicians, and Community Health Workers) appeared on the Health and Human Services list of "Promising Occupations Achievable through Short-term Education or Training for Low-Income Families."16 Often times these occupations do not require a post-secondary degree. Instead, many of these occupations require only a post-secondary certificate (and only a high school diploma or equivalent as pre-requisites), making them ideal positions for which to train unemployed or underemployed workers. Providing assistance to doctors and nurses, these occupations play an increasingly important role in successful healthcare delivery. Through a grant from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, WFA leads regional implementation of the Health Careers Advancement Project (Health CAP), which provides opportunities to TANF recipients and otherlow- 14 2017 Survey of Connecticut Manufacturing Workforce Needs. CBIA in coll aboration with the NSF Regional Center for Next Generation Manufacturing, Connecticut Stat e Colleges and Universit ies,2017. 15 CT DOL 2014 -2024 Workforce Development Area Empl oy ment Projections. 16 http://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/opre/tanf_sectors_region_1_020216_b508.pdf 6

  9. incomeindividualstoenterandadvancealongcareerpathwaysinpatientcare and nursing, emergency medicine, community health and patient navigation, and health informationmanagement. Educational Knowledge and Skills. Within the Educational sector, the occupation with far-and-away the largest projected growth is postsecondary teachers adding 2,360 jobs (16.6% growth) by 2024.17 Nearly all education­ related jobs, especially public ones, require at least a bachelor's degree, while the majority of post-secondary teaching occupations require a doctor's degree. The educational requirements of this sector present a significant barrier for a large portion of those seeking employment, and for the majority of WFAclients. STEM-related Knowledge and Skills (Including IT). Similar to the educational sector, occupations requiring STEM-related knowledge and skills including information technology, computer and mathematical, and professional and technical occupations, require a bachelor's degree. However certain "middle skill" occupations require only an associate's degree, including Computer Network Support Specialists (which is not predicted to grow within the region), and Web Developers (predicted to grow by 29.4%, adding 83jobs by 2024).18 Manufacturing Knowledge and Skills. Manufacturing occupations, including machinists and welders (two occupational categories projected to grow), require a range of skills including: analytical, mechanical, and technical skills. WFA aims to provide much of the necessary core education and skills training through its AJCs, partnerships with local community colleges, technical high schools, four-year colleges and universities, and neighboring workforce boards, as well coordinated on-the-job training and apprenticeship programs at many local and regional manufacturingcompanies. 4. Provide an analysis of the workforce in the region, including current labor force employment and unemployment data, information on labor market trends, and the educational and skill levels of the workforce in the region, including individ uals with ba1Ti e rs to e mployment. Employment & Unemployment Data. The South Central region has seen a strongrecovery fromthenegativeeffectsoftheGreatRecession.Since2007,the number of employed persons within the region has increased by 1.4% or 5,300 workers. While the region's 2016 unemployment percentage (5.0 %) remains slightly above its pre-recession level (4.7% in 2007), it has steadily declined since its high of 9.2 % in 2010. From 2007 to 2016, the region's labor force grewby 1.8 % or 7,100 workers .19 Table 8 summarizes the region's employment and unemployment information from 2007 to2016. 17 CT DOL 2014 -2024 Workforce Development Area Em ploym ent Proj ections. 18 CT DOL 2014 -2024 Workfor ce Development Area Em pl oym ent Pro jections. 19 Information for Workforce Investment Planning ( archi ves). CT DOL Office ofResearch. 7

  10. Table8:SouthCentralCurrentandHistoricalEmploymentInformation 20162010 1 Current2010 6-Vear/l Employed Unemployed Unemployment rate(%) 379,700 20,000 5.0% 367,176 37,080 9.2% +12,524 -17,080 -4.2% 371,100 18,100 4.7% +8,600 +1,900 +0.3% Information for Workforce Investment Planning (archives). CT DOL Office ofResearch. Local Wage Information. Although annual average wages in the SouthCentral regionhaveremainedbelowstateaveragesfrom2006-2016,theregion'swages have consistently ranked thirdamong the five Connecticut workforce development areas throughout that period. In 2016,the average annualwage in the regionwas $56,195,nearly $10,000 less than Connecticut's average wage(which is skewed upwardby . -----------..--.------·-· Figure 1: Annual Average Wage2006-2016 • S90,000 $80,000 S70,000 560,000 SS,0000 540,000 S30,000 20!!6 :ID07 200& 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -.- North Central Southwest --- sca:ewide -.- Eall:em --- Northwest -- SO<A:hCentral-- Information for Workforce In vestment Planning. CTDOL Off ice of Research. dramatically higher wages in the Southwest region, where average wages are nearly $89,000). Wages throughout the region and state have been trending upward since 2006, increasing by 21.5% in the region and 20.1% statewide. Wage growth in the region and state from 2006 to 2016 lags the U.S. wage growth rate of 27.3%.20 Figure 1 shows regional and statewide wage trends from2006 to 2016. Table 9 shows average and entry level annual hourly wages for the five occupational groups projected to grow by the largest number of jobs over the next ten years, revealing a range of high- and low-wage occupations as the fastest-growing. 20 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development. 8

  11. Table9:Ql2017WageDataforTopFiveGrowing Occupational Categories2014-2024 SouthCentralWorkforceDevelopment Area·OccupationalEmploymentandWages,1'1Quarter2017.CT DOLOfficeofResearch Educatio nal and Skill Levels of Workforce. The South Central region has an educated workforce. At the time of the 2010 Census, 37% of the region's residents held a bachelor's degree or higher,21 in line with 2016 estimates for Connecticut (39%) and higher than 2016 estimates for the nation (31%).22 The region's four-year high school graduation rate of 88.1%23 mirrors that of the state as a whole (87.4%).24 The percentage of the region's residents lacking a highschooldiplomaorGEDat9.8%is0.7%lowerthan thestate(10.5%),and 3.9% lower than the national average of13.7%.25 Employed vs. Unemployed Demographic lnformation2.6 Stark differences in the region's employed and unemployed were revealed in a 2015 DataHaven Community Wellbeing Survey of nearly 17,000 Connecticut residents, including 2,872 South Central workforce development arearesidents. Forty three percent (43%) of unemployed residents in the region felt they needed more training and/or education in order to"get ahead in their career," compared to 27% of employedresidents. Figure2showsthepercentageof I residents who indicated thatthey needed additional trainingand/or education in order to get ahead in their career by age. Unemployed residentsages18-34were1.7times as likely to feel theyneeded Figure2:PercentofWorkersWhoNeed AdditionalTraining/Education(Age) 80% 60% 60% 44%43% III 36% 40% 27% 26% 20% 0% 18-3435-4950-64All • Employed Unemployed 2015 DataHaven Community WellbeingSurvey additional training/education compared to employed residents age18-34. 21 American Communi ty Survey, DecennialCensus. 222016AmericanCommunitySurvey1-YearEstimates,U.S.CensusBureau. 23 Analysis by CT DOL Office of Research staff membersconducted for Workforce Alliance in May2018. 24 Information for Workforce Investment Planning. CT DOL Office ofResearch. 25UnitedStatesCensusBureau,2010-2014.http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/tabl e/PST045215/09,00 26 2015 DataHaven Community WellbeingSurvey 9

  12. Figures 3 shows that Transportation,specifically access to a car when needed, poses another common barrier to employment. Twenty-four percent (24%) ofunemployed residents reported that they often do not have access to a car when needed. The unemployed were almost 3.5 times as likely to report lack of access to a car compared to employedresidents Figure 3: Percent Who Often Lack Access toa Car(Age) 60% 48% 40% 24% •- - 13% 12% 20% • 7% 4% 4% 0% 18-34 35-4950-64 All • Employed •Unemployed • 2015 DataHaven Community WellbeingSurvey (7%). Black and African American respondents reported the greatestdisparity between employed and unemployed residents of any demographic group, with 48% of unemployed Black respondents reporting they often do not have access to a car when needed, compared to only 13% among employed Black respondents. In regard to potential health barriers to employment, a higher percentage of unemployed residents reported suffering from a variety of physical and mental health conditions as compared to employed residents, including: anxiety (33% vs.26%),depression(28%vs.7%),diabetes(10%vs.5%),obesity (40%vs. 25%).Figure4compareshealthcharacteristicsamongemployedand unemployed survey respondents in theregion. Figure4:HealthCharacteristicsofEmployedvs.UnemployedWorkers 50% 40% 40% 33% 30% 0% I II 12%13% 28% 26% 25% 20% 10% • 10% 7% 5% Anxiety Depression DiabetesAsthma Obesity (som ewh at or mor e) (fair ly or very often) • EmployedUnemployed 2015 DataHaven Community WellbeingSurvey Underemployment. When accounting for part-time workers who would prefer to work full-time, as well as workers who may not have been actively looking for work in the past 30 days, the actual underemployment rate is at least double the official unemployment rate. The 2015 DataHaven Community Wellbeing Survey, for example, found underemployment rates of 14% statewide, 20% in New Haven, and 27% in Meriden. DataHaven and its partners arecurrently mobilizing to complete the 2018 DataHaven Community WellbeingSurvey. 10

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