Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) Meteorology

1. Naval Oceanography: Excellence in (Tropical) Meteorology Rear Admiral Dave Titley Commander Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command Presented to 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference Charleston, SC 3 March 2008

2. Overview:Communications and Cooperation • The United States Navy is committed to excellence in operational meteorology • Unless we keep the Fleet safe, nothing else really matters • We are interdependent with our partners and stakeholders • Part of the nation’s weather infrastructure • The Future is bright – and very different from the past • Forecasters: Moving up the value chain • How we communicate our information • Ensembles  Risk management • Battlespace on Demand  Decision Superiority • Naval Oceanography – a great place to work! We are the Navy’s Operational Science Community

3. Warfighting Safety Shaping Naval Oceanography WARFIGHTING FOCUSED KNOWLEDGE-CENTRIC Anti-Submarine Warfare • Naval Oceanography • ~$600M operating budget • 12 ships • 1950 military, 1350 civilians Naval Special Warfare Mine Warfare ISR Navigation Precise Time and Astrometry • Teamwork • Technical Excellence • Clear Communications Fleet Operations Maritime Operations • Manage Risk • Measure Results • Continuous Improvement Aviation Operations FNMOC NAVO CUS USNO

4. Numerical Wx Prediction Maritime / Polar Aviation Tropical Cyclone Forecasts Fleet Operations Expeditionary Naval Meteorology

5. NHEM 500 mb Height AC Numerical Weather Prediction • Global • Regional / Relocatable • Aerosol / Dispersion • Tropical Cyclone • Coupled Wave and Ocean • Ensembles • Information Assurance • Tight R&D Ops Connection

6. Joint Typhoon Warning Center • 56 Tropical Cyclones warned on in 2007 26 TC’s 6 TC’s 24 TC’s • 35 – 40% decrease in track errors over past 10 years • 72 hour track error < 150 nm in 2007 • Used by NWS for Guam, Saipan

7. Communication • “Paradox of Accuracy” • Better warnings may not equate to less damage • How to best communicate probabilistic information? • The Weather Research Challenge • Track + Intensity + Structure + Coupling = Better Sea, Swell & Storm Surge Fcsts • The Communications Research Challenge • Storm vs. Tropical Storm, Gale vs. Tropical Gale, etc. • TC COR ambiguity - “Hazardous vs. • Destructive vs. • Hurricane Winds” “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.” -Albert Einstein 7

8. Safety Operations • Smart: • Sensing • Forecasting / Automation • Communications • Partnering • NWS • USAF • Other Countries $300B of Ships, A/C and Shore Assets OfficersChiefsJunior EnlistedCivilians Total 27 22 179 12 240

9. Partnerships • Navy values the partnerships and interdependence with NOAA, the USAF, academia and industry in meteorology – we can’t do this alone! • JTWC … A success story for over 50 years • USAF Satellite and forecasting expertise • National Weather Service forecasts are the backbone of the Navy’s installation resource protection program. • 5 Day TC forecasts • NWS investment in Advanced TC Forecaster (ATCF) • Participation in next generation national weather forecast model with NOAA and USAF • Navy contributes a key numerical forecast member to the Nation’s tropical cyclone forecast ensemble. • ATCF, Sat Viewer • International

10. The Future • Big Changes for NOGAPS in 2008/9 • Semi-Lagrangian (T239L30  T479L60) • 4DVAR (NAVDAS – AR) • Ensembles (NAEFS, migrate to EKTF, WW3 w/ NCEP) • WW3 Upgrades • CPU Upgrade at Monterey (1.4 TFLOPS  22 TFLOPS) • People • Contracting out observing functions at Naval Air Stations • B.S. Marine Meteorology for qualified Sailors • In-house forecasting training • Ensembles & Communication • Typhoon forecasts • Experiments • NRL Probabilistic Prediction Research Office (PRO)

11. People + Technology • Partnering with the Science, Technology, and Research and Development communities to: • Maximize operational impact • Minimize time to transition into our skilled workforce • Increased model skill – an opportunity to do our job differently • Automate first guess for enroute ship forecasts and routes • Automate environmental impact assessment – provides rapid situational awareness • Training and education of skilled 21st century weather forecasters • How to best use ensembles • How to best use forecast information to inform decision-makers • In combat • In risk-management • In civilian applications (e.g., Next-Gen)

12. Summary • Navy remains committed to excellence in meteorology • Increasing focus on leveraging partnerships with NOAA, USAF and international stakeholders • Participation in next generation national forecast model (NUOPC) • Ocean forecasting • Defining the role of the 21st century forecaster • Battlespace on Demand • Rapid transition advanced S&T discoveries into operations • We are hiring! • There is opportunity everywhere we look – in the tropical field!

13. Questions?