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Dr . Ada Ignaciuk , Agricultural Policy Analyst ,

What are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable manner ?. Dr . Ada Ignaciuk , Agricultural Policy Analyst , Environmental Division of Trade and Agriculture Directorate , OECD Email: Ada.Ignaciuk@oecd.org.

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Dr . Ada Ignaciuk , Agricultural Policy Analyst ,

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  1. What are themostefficientmeasures of mitigation and adaptationto produce more in a sustainablemanner? Dr . Ada Ignaciuk, AgriculturalPolicyAnalyst, EnvironmentalDivision of Trade and AgricultureDirectorate, OECD Email: Ada.Ignaciuk@oecd.org

  2. Scenario analysis - socio-economicdevelopments - climate - technology projections 1) OECD’s short-medium term projections ‘OECD-FAO Outlook’2) OECD’s long term projections

  3. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Agricultural Outlook - a set of conditional projections published in an OECD-FAO annual report Comprehensive, dynamic partial equilibrium model Dedicated OECD-FAO web page: www.agri-outlook.org

  4. Involve member governments in global projection process to link expertise world wide and build consensus on emerging national and global issues Participate in annual world commodity projection Access to data, models, commodity experts Participate in analysis projects Access to capacity building – training Tap global expertise Co-operators Program

  5. Climate damages OECD (2010)

  6. Climate Change costs

  7. Market outlook: prices % change in average (real) prices 2002-11 to 2012-21 “2012-21 prices above last decade” OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate

  8. Prices

  9. Zooming into Mexican (irrigated) yields

  10. Land use

  11. Insurances Adaptation - different governance Adaptation -on field Diversify livelihood Provide information on e.g. weather and provide advisory services Autonomous adaptation e.g. changing cropping patterns, changing varieties R&D Improved water management Mitigation and adaptation plans Shift production Improved soil management More efficient management of inputs Adding legumes Changes in management practices e.g. no-till Changes in management of manure Agroforestry Biofuels Mitigation

  12. Conclusions • Climate change will affect agricultural production; but still many uncertainties • To align adaptation and mitigation policies now, across different governance levels • Holistic approach to climate policies to avoid maladaptation practices • Climate change may be a challenge for some, but opportunities for others

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