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THE COUNTY IMPACT OF HOME BUILDING IN THE CITY OF ROSEBURG, OREGON

THE COUNTY IMPACT OF HOME BUILDING IN THE CITY OF ROSEBURG, OREGON. Presented by : Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D . October 2, 2009 Roseburg, OR. LOCAL ECONOMIC IMPACT. Construction phase Jobs Materials Local fees, taxes, contributions Ripple or feed-back from construction

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THE COUNTY IMPACT OF HOME BUILDING IN THE CITY OF ROSEBURG, OREGON

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  1. THE COUNTY IMPACT OF HOME BUILDING IN THE CITY OF ROSEBURG, OREGON Presented by: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. October 2, 2009 Roseburg, OR

  2. LOCAL ECONOMIC IMPACT • Construction phase • Jobs • Materials • Local fees, taxes, contributions • Ripple or feed-back from construction • Wages spent in local economy • Occupancy phase • Earnings spent in local economy

  3. The model does not say build housing to stimulate the local economy • Rather, it is job creation that results in increased demand for housing, but remember that….. HOUSING => JOBS

  4. CONSTRUCTION PHASE $$ VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION $$ SERVICES PROVIDED AT CLOSING PERMIT/HOOK-UP FEES $ $ $ $ $ (Obtained from Local Sources) INPUTS: MODEL OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY INCOME FOR LOCAL RESIDENTS & TAX/FEE REVENUE FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENTS OUTPUTS:

  5. RIPPLE PHASE LOCAL INCOME & TAXES FROM PHASE 1 INPUTS: SPENDING ON LOCAL GOODS & SERVICES Consumer Expenditure Survey (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics) MODEL OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY OUTPUTS: LOCAL INCOME & TAXES

  6. OCCUPANCY PHASE INCOME OF HOUSEHOLD OCCUPYING NEW HOUSING UNIT INPUTS: SPENDING ON LOCAL GOODS & SERVICES PROPERTY TAX PAYMENTS MODEL OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY OUTPUTS: LOCAL INCOME & TAXES

  7. Douglas County, OR

  8. The Douglas Co., OR Multiplier Only Captures Spending that Stays in the County Includes: Banking, Car Repair, Dry Cleaning, Day Care Services, Dental Services, Electricity, Landscaping, Legal Services, Manicures, Medical Services, Newspaper Delivery, Restaurants and Psychiatric Care. But Not: Auto Manufacturing, Beer Bottling, Mattress Manufacturing, Meat Packing, Movie Production, and Travel Agency Services

  9. History of the Model • Over 600 Economic Impact Analyses Performed • Users of the Model Include: • Boone County Kentucky • Habitat for Humanity, International • MI State Housing Development Authority • Michigan State University • Missouri Housing Development Commission • University of Florida • University of Massachusetts • University of Montana • West Virginia Housing Development Fund…

  10. Assumptions of the Model Inputs To ModelSingle Family Average house price: $268,882 Average raw lot cost: $7,735 Permits/Infrastructure: $8,545 Annual prop. taxes: $2,455

  11. Economic Impact of Single Family Home Building • 1st - Construction phase • 2nd - Ripple effect from construction phase • 3rd - Occupancy phase • 4th - Ten year total

  12. FIRST YEAR IMPACT: SF Construction Every 100 SF Homes INCLUDING: 184 Jobs in Construction 40 Jobs in Wholesale & Retail Trade 21 Jobs in Business and Professional Services

  13. FIRST YEAR IMPACT: SF Ripple INCLUDING: 36 Jobs in Wholesale and Retail Trade 22 Jobs in Health, Education & Social Services 18 Jobs in Eating and Drinking Places

  14. ONGOING SF ANNUAL EFFECT INCLUDING: 16 Jobs in Wholesale and Retail Trade 9 Jobs in Health, Education & Social Services 8 Jobs in Eating and Drinking Places

  15. Total SF Impact: First Ten Years Along with 401 temporary jobs And 59 permanent ones!

  16. Largest Local Private Employers Employer# of FT Jobs Roseburg Forest Products 2,500 Mercy Healthcare, Inc. 1,100 Seven Feathers Hotel & Casino Resort 735 Swanson Group, Inc. 429 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 281 New SF Residential Construction 266 First Call Resolution 237 Ingram Book Company 210 Orenco Systems, Inc. 207 Fred Meyer 186

  17. BUT NEW HOMES REQUIRE: INFRASTRUCTURE • Fire and police protection • Garbage collection • Parks and recreational opportunities • Roads • Correctional facilities • Primary and secondary education • Etc…

  18. Required Current Expenses per SF Unit

  19. Required Capital per SF Unit

  20. Now that we know: The benefits of construction & The costs of construction Does new construction pay for itself?

  21. Yes it does! For every 100 SF units-- • By the end of the 10th year the debt is fully paid off • By the 2nd year economic impacts offset fiscal costs • In the 10th year, net is $103,761 and is $105,517 thereafter

  22. Over 15 years, every 100 SF units generate a cumulative $8.2 million in revenue for local governments—but only $7.6 million in costs

  23. What does 10 years mean? • That is, should it be done faster, or is it O.K.? • Big purchases take time to pay off. • Car loans now last 5 years, and many lease! • How fast did you pay off your student loans? • How fast are your kids paying off theirs? • Did you pay off your home in 10 years?

  24. Almost done, just a bit more

  25. How Large Are Non Property Tax Revenues • Single family property taxes are $2,545/unit per year but, yearly revenue is $4,645/unit per year, which is 83% more. • Clearly, property taxes are not the whole story!

  26. A Closer Look at Primary and Secondary Education • 12.6% attend private schools nationally • 1.7% are Home schooled nationally • 0.4 school age children/MF unit nationally • 0.6 school age children/SF unit nationally • OR State aid is $112 million or 74% of budget

  27. ANY QUESTIONS? • Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. • Call: 202.266.8398 • Fax: 202.266.8426 • eeisenberg@nahb.com • 1201 15th Street NW • Washington, DC 20005-2800 • Thank you very much!

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