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Drought

National Integrated Drought Information System National HIC Conference July 31, 2008 Victor Murphy SRH Climate Svc Program Manager. Drought. A normal, recurrent feature of climate. Occurs in virtually all climatic zones.

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Drought

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  1. National Integrated Drought Information SystemNational HIC ConferenceJuly 31, 2008Victor Murphy SRH Climate Svc Program Manager

  2. Drought • A normal, recurrent feature of climate. • Occurs in virtually all climatic zones. • Originates from an extended period of time with a deficiency of precipitation. • This deficiency results in a water shortage for some activity, group, or environmental sector. • Its impacts often result from the demand people place on water supply. • Humans often exacerbate drought impact.

  3. A Normal Recurrent Feature of Climate • Late 1910s saw south TX receive record low rainfall amounts (mainly 1917-1918). • Dust Bowl of 1930s devastated the Central Plains and exacerbated the Depression of that decade. • Drought of record in Texas and Oklahoma occurred in the 1950s and resulted in numerous societal changes (i.e. construction of many lakes in north Texas for conservation and drinking water).

  4. Billion Dollar Climate and Weather Disasters Since 1980 11 different heat or drought events…$145B in damage..28% of total monetary damage.

  5. Federal Reaction to Droughts and Drought Policy • GAO study in 1979 recommended a national drought plan due to the aftermath of the mid 1970s drought. • Immediate offshoot is an integrated climate monitoring system and a national drought center. The National Drought Mitigation Center in Lincoln, NB is now funded by the USDA.

  6. Federal Reaction to Droughts and Drought Policy • After a 2003 WGA/NOAA/NDMC meeting, the concept of NIDIS emerges. • The NIDIS final report is presented at the WGA annual meeting in 2004 and adopted. • It consists of 5 different key sections, with an emphasis on monitoring, mitigation, outreach, education, and forecasts.

  7. NIDIS • Primary sponsors are Rep. Mark Udall of CO and Ralph Hall of TX in the House, and Sen. Nelson of NE and Sen. Domenici of NM in the Senate. • NOAA Designated as Lead Agency when NIDIS Act of 2006 introduced in Congress.

  8. Public Law 109-430 passes Congress in 2006. • “The National Integrated Drought Information System Act of 2006.” • NOAA establishes a NIDIS Program Office in Boulder, CO. • Roger Pulwarty named as Director.

  9. NIDIS Vision • “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.”Public Law 109-430 (2006)

  10. Now, toss in some climatechange • As per the Findings and Summary of the US Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment: • Precip is likely to be less frequent but more intense, and extremes are likely to increase. • Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions. These regions include the US southwest.

  11. Drought Information: NIDIS Early Warning (sub)Systems • Monitoring and forecasting National, regional and local levels: Existing, gaps, emerging needs • Risk assessment Coordinated Federal information should enable resources and disaster management authorities to generate their own risk and impact scenarios, trigger and tools development • Communication and Preparedness Inform actions required to reduce the loss and damage expected from an impending event and for post-event planning U.S. Drought Portal

  12. NIDIS VISION and GOALS • “A dynamic and accessible drought information system that provides users with the ability to determine the potential impacts of drought and the associated risks they bring, and the decision support tools needed to better prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought.” • Implementation requires: • Coordinate a national drought monitoring and forecasting system • Creating a drought early warning system • Providing an interactive drought information delivery system for products and services—including an internet portal and standardized products (databases, forecasts, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), maps, etc) • Designing mechanisms for improved interaction with public (education materials, etc)

  13. NOAA Western Governors Association USGS Dept. of Interior (BoR) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USDA (NRCS, ARS, CSREES) NASA Indigenous Waters Network Regional Climate Centers National Drought Mitigation Center Association of State Climatologists Cornell University New Mexico State University Rutgers University South Dakota State University University of Oklahoma University of South Carolina University of Washington The Weather Channel NIDIS Implementation Team Partners (to date): New: Duke Power U. Georgia Others? www.drought.gov

  14. Governance Structure for NIDIS Implementation NIDIS Executive Council Co-chairs: Director, NOAA Climate Program Office (or designee) Director, National Drought Mitigation Center (or designee) NIDIS Program Implementation Team (NPIT) Working-Level Partner Representatives Coordinate and develop evaluation criteria for all NIDIS activities including pilot project selection Chair: NPO Director • NIDIS Program Office • (NPO Director) • Coordinate NIDIS-relevant cross-NOAA • and Interagency drought-related activities • Develop a national presence for NIDIS • (e.g. formal links to National Governors • Ass’n) • Participate in GEOSS / IEOS NIDIS Technical Working Groups Federal, Regional, State, Tribal and Local Partner Leads Embedded in national and regional, and local NIDIS Activities Develop pilot implementation and transferability criteria Co-Chairs selected by NPIT Public Awareness And Education U.S. Drought Portal Engaging Preparedness Communities Interdisciplinary Research and Applications Integrated Monitoring and Forecasting National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning System Design, Pilots, and Implementation

  15. www.drought.gov 2. 3. 1. Key Themes 1.) Current Drought 2.) Forecasting 3.) Impacts 4.) Planning 5.) Education 6.) Research Showcase Portlets: 1.) U.S. Drought Monitor (NOAA, USDA, NDMC) 2.) Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Forecast (NOAA) 3.) Drought Impacts Reporter (NDMC)

  16. National Staples in Drought Portal

  17. National Staples in Drought Portal

  18. RFC Products in Drought Portal Others?

  19. NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers International Research Institute RISA – Pacific Northwest High Plains RCC University of Nebraska Midwestern RCC Illinois State Water Survey RISA – Western Water RISA – NewHampshire Northeast RCC Cornell University Western RCC Desert Research Institute Climate Prediction Center, Climate Services Division Physical Sciences Division National Climatic Data Center RISA – California National Center Regional Center Southeast RCC S.C. Dept. of Natural Resources Pacific ENSO Applications Center States Participating In Two Regions Southern RCC Louisiana State University RISA’s RISA – Florida NWS RHQ RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS

  20. Percent Change in Total Population, 1990-2000 5 1 4 3 2 Source: U.S. Geological Survey, National Atlas of the United States

  21. Multiple competing valuesMultiple, competing objectives Hydropower Ecosystems health Recreation Consumptiveuse Flood control Agriculture

  22. NIDIS Process Model:Implementing NIDIS Pilots Coordinating federal, state, and local drought-related activities (e.g., within watersheds and states) Engaging research, management and planning communities: Stakeholder defined measures of drought and triggers for decision making Monitoring Prediction Risk Assessments Integrating Tools:e.g. Drought Portal Identifying and diffusing innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness Engaging the preparedness communities ImprovedAdaptation? ImpactMitigation ProactivePlanning

  23. RFCs are uniquely suited both in spatial coverage of HSA area and unique knowledge of local customer needs to deliver key products and services to meet the needs of water users and decision makers within the ambit of NIDIS.

  24. Large Parts of the country rely on groundwater Recharge intermittent in many locations USGS C. 1186 • Very little is known about how groundwater will change • Data lacking yet critical for management and modeling • Aquifer Storage and Recovery an old technique with potential to assist with storage issues

  25. Proposed NIDIS Drought Early Warning Systems Southeast

  26. Southeast US NIDIS Drought Workshop April 20-30, 2008 in Peachtree City, GA Focused on the ACF/ATC Basins and coastal plains of AL/GA/FL Over 60 attendees from Government and Industry

  27. Atlanta Journal Constitution Oct. 2007

  28. NWS River Forecast Centers are providing ongoing regional and state drought information.

  29. Tri-State Water Briefing January 22, 2008

  30. Opportunities A ConsistentlyDeepening and Expanding Drought

  31. NIDIS Opportunities • Funding provided to OHD to begin new low flow initiatives. • Targets of Opportunity. • ACT/ATC Basin • Upper Colorado Basin

  32. Who manages the watershed? Environment States Feds Industry-Power/Ag Cities

  33. Thank you! Victor Murphy 817-978-2652 x 130 Roger Pulwarty Roger.Pulwarty@noaa.gov 303-497-4425

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