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Enabling Businesses To Evaluate the Role of Habitats in Hurricane Risk Mitigation. Sheila Walsh Reddy The Nature Conservancy. Growing business risk…. Climate Change Energy & Fuel Material Resource Scarcity Water Scarcity Population Growth Urbanization Wealth Food Security
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Enabling Businesses To Evaluate the Role of Habitats in Hurricane Risk Mitigation Sheila Walsh Reddy The Nature Conservancy
Growing business risk…. Climate Change Energy & Fuel Material Resource Scarcity Water Scarcity Population Growth Urbanization Wealth Food Security Ecosystem Decline Deforestation (KPMG 2011)
…..and business opportunities. Sustainably managing ecosystems makes economic sense. (MEA 2005) Hurricane Katrina $14 billion restoration2 $110 billion relief fund 1 Sources: 1. U.S. Congress, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Bills – HR 4939, PL 109-234 and HR 3673, PL 109-62 (2005), 2. Draft Comprehensive Coast-wide Ecosystem Restoration Study, Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, October 2003
Need Tools To Measure Missing Assets and Liabilities Natural Capital $ Human Capital Manufactured Capital (Photo credit: Jen Molnar, Wikicommons)
Growing conservation challenges….. TNC 1955
……global conservation needs partnerships. TNC 2013: priority areas TNC Lands (USA)
Nature Conservancy-Dow Collaboration To find ways for companies to incorporate the value of nature into business decisions. Jennifer Molnar
TNC-Dow Pilot site analyses Freeport, Texas • Air quality via reforestation • Coastal protection • Freshwater supply Santa Vitória, Brazil • Agricultural supply chain Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar
Freeport: Hurricane Risk Mitigation Hypothesis: Understanding the role of coastal habitats in storm protection will improve levee design and reduce costs, especially in the face of sea level rise Globe: http://www.worldmapsonline.com/earth_satellite_image_mural.htm; Photos: Jennifer Molnar
The Problem Global Losses from Natural Hazards are Increasing Billions US$
The Opportunity Ecosystems May Mitigate Losses
Natural and Built Infrastructure And? Or? Salt marsh Levee or Sea wall
Valuation for Corporate Coastal Hazard Mitigation Levees Natural Hazard Mitigation Economic Costs and Benefits to Business and Public Additional Benefits (e.g. Recreation) Habitat Biodiversity
Scenario Comparisons Coastal Habitat + Levee Designed for Coastal Habitat Coastal Habitat Levee
Methods: Overview • Model future land cover with sea level rise, development • Identify levee design for 100 yr storm • Analyze flood and damages from Cat 1-5 storms • Compare avoided damages • Assess other public and ecosystem benefits • Evaluate opportunities to enhance/protect values
Sea Level Rise and Decreasing Marsh Habitat 35% decrease in marsh 9% decrease in marsh Current 2050, 0.57 m sea level rise 2100, 1.29 m sea level rise
Sea Level Rise and Marsh Loss Increases Risk from a 100 yr Storm in 2050 0.6 m Sea Level Rise 12% Higher Floods 9% Higher Levee Costs Mitigating Effect of Habitat 1% Lower Floods 1% Lower Levee Costs
Small Private and Large Public Benefits from Habitat Additional Habitat Values: • Habitat for 12 Fisheries * • Carbon Sequestration • - Negative in long-term • Habitat for >200 Species *Chart not to scale
Restoration May Maintain/Improve Benefits Restored Dry Lands
Outcomes c The Value of Information for Risk Management Science: Link ecological change to business value Business method: Ability to value missing assets Inform Conservation/ Business Priorities: When do marshes have significant protective values?
Future Challenges: An Invitation Science: Link ecological change to business value
Future Challenges: An Invitation Business method: Ability to value missing assets
Future Challenges: An Invitation Inform Conservation/ Business Priorities: When do marshes have significant protective values?
Acknowledgments • TNC-Sustainability Science: Sheila Walsh (co-lead), Tim Boucher, Jon Fisher, Anthony Rogers, Alex Maas, Jen Molnar • Dow: Doug Whipple (co-lead), Daniel Ramirez, John DiMuro, Judy Gunderson • TNC-TX:Jorge Brenner, Michael Thompson • Natural Capital Project: Greg Guannel, Rob Griffin, Joe Faries, Joey Bernhardt, Greg Verutes, Spencer Wood, Jess Silver, Jodie Toft, Anne Guerry • TNC-Global Marine: Mike Beck, Chris Shepard • Warren Pinnacle Consulting: Jonathon Clough, Marco Propato, Amy Polaczyk • AIR: Akshay Gupta, Andrew Kao • Funding: Dow Chemical Company Foundation
Value of nature Company Public Ecosystems Jennifer Molnar
Hybrid and Levee Infrastructure Scenarios Provide Similar Levels of Private Protection