The 1997 1998 Asian Financial Crisis Spill over effect on the United States

1. The 1997 � 1998 Asian Financial CrisisSpill over effect on the United States Nguyen Manh Linh Vietnam Sukkasem Lomathmanyvong Laos Wang Xiang China Andi Riza Indonesia

2. Objectives THE MAJOR CAUSES OF THE CRISIS SPILL OVER EFFECT ON SPECIFIC COUNTRY: United State of America

3. General Overview The most important effects of the Asian crisis on the US economy worked through international trade: In 1996, US trade with East Asia accounted for 30% of export, and 40% of import of goods In 1997 export of good and service to East Asia represented 11.9% of U.S. GDP (only 4.8% in 1960) Capital transfer, Investments Asian financial crisis exerted mixed effects on US employment and economic activities, depressed some sectors and stimulated other sectors Reduced export ( by 12% in 1998 !) Increased Import Domestic demand boosted (lower commodities price)! Lower interest and inflation rates !

4. Access to financing in Asia Companies in Asia tend to rely more on bank borrowing than on issuing bonds or stocks Government preferred development financial baking system with banks => can control and regulate who access to loan. Well-connected with bank and government tend to have best access to financing

5. Private sector debt and poor loan quality Borrowed short-term loan for long term projects like infrastructure and real estate development. Type of borrower has shifted away from the government and central banks to banks and non-bank private sector Exchange rate fluctuate only within narrow band and has been aligned with dollar

6. Maturity Distribution

7. Causes of the crisis (1) Inadequately development financial services sector Lack of control and sufficient regulations in capital market Close alignment between the local currency and US dollar

8. Causes of the crisis (2) Weakening Economic performance and balance of payment difficulties Currency speculation Technological changes financial market Lack of confidence in the ability of the governments in questions to resolve their problems successfully.

9. Why United State ? American is major investor in the region Financial market is interlink and U.S financial market is most efficient one The currency turmoil effect the U.S. imports, exports and value of US dollar US activities in IMF: Funding and legislative issues in operation

10. Spill over mechanism (1) Macroeconomic level Economic growth Flows of trade Capital flows Exchange and interest rates

11. Spill over mechanism (2) Microeconomic level on each industry Competition Price Demand Business opportunities Revenues and profits of firms

12. MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

13. Macro Economic performance indicators GDP growth rate Export/Import Capital flows Inflation/Consumer price index Interest rates Exchange rates

14. Devaluation of currencies

15. Devaluation of currencies

16.

17. Current Account Asian countries group is third trade partner of United States after EU and Japan

18. Trade deficit betweenUSA- Asia

19. Why steady deficit �? Slowdown of Asia economies => Less demand for export Drop in value of Asia currencies and appreciation of U.S. Dollar => raise cost and price for export and decrease those of import. High unemployment rate in many Asia countries => Very low wage for many labor intensive export Surplus in capital account implied an rise in the deficit in current account

20. FDI in United States (Millions $)

21. Interest Rate

22. Interest rate Less demand for lending abroad Shift liquid capital from troubled Asia to invest in United states Encourage domestic borrowing Steady grow of domestic home construction and vehicle sale (deposit selling) Positive effect for economic growth !!!

23. Consumer Price Index

24. Lower inflation Low price of goods as result of competion between domestic and export one Low price of oil because of falling demand in Asia of oil and other commodities Higher purchasing power

25. Inflation Rate

26. Oil Price at Crisis Period Fallen 30% to end of 1997

27. United States Personal Income( Per Capita )

28. Blessing� or Curse�(1) Forecaste U.S. Economic grown with slowdown pace from 3.8% in 1997 to 2,5% in 1998: Losess in loan and financial intrument in troubled Asia Steady deficit in balace of trade Bad status of U.S. subsidiaries and direct investment projects in Asia Contribution of the States to IMF to deal with the crisis (1.8 billion of U.S. Dollar)

29. Real Growth Rate of GDP

30. Blessing� or Curse�(2) In fact, there is positive effect. The grown rate up to 4.2% in 1997 from 3.6% in 1996 and continuosly raised to 4.3% in 1998: Increase capital inflow Eased the upward pressure on U.S. interest rate Encourage domestic business grow Economies of Asia countries are more open Opportunities to takeover companies with bad financial condition in Asia

31. S & P 500 Index

32. MICROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

33. Major sectors affected (1) Creditors and investors in Asia suffered loses: U.S. bank, pension funds, and investors suffered loses Exporters to Asia faced declining demand: U.S. makers of major export items (heavy equipment, aircraft, manufacturing machinery and agricultural commodities) Producers of commodities used in the manufacture of products in Asia: e.g. chemicals, cotton,copper, and rubber Businesses competing with import from Asia faced increasing competition and downward pressure on prices: e.g. automobiles, apparel, consumer electronics, steel, etc.

34. Major sectors affected ( 2 ) Labor engaged in manufacturing competing products hurt by Asian depreciation Businesses that sell import from Asia gained opportunities: distributors and retailers of products from trouble Asian economies (e.g. Korean automobile dealers) U.S. MNCs seeking market access in Asia, particularly in financial sectors gain opportunities: lessened entry barriers acquisition of existing firms that needed restructuring and recapitalization at relatively low prices

35. Major sectors affected ( 3 ) U.S. MNCs with manufacturing subsidiaries in Asia faced difficulties and stagnation: 60% of their output is sold in the region, local sales stagnated excess capacity rising costs of import in countries with depreciated currencies falling price of finished export to U.S. and other hard currency markets Industries that use components from Asia benefit on lower costs of production

36. Implication of The Asian crisis for the U.S Economic Sectors Sectors reviewed: Financial Agriculture High-tech Textile Steel Paper

37. Claims on Asian Countries by United States

38. Financial sector Citicorp: Net income dropped from $224 m in 1996 to 218 m in 1997 J.P. Morgan: Reported NPL of $587 m of its total $5.4 billion in loan, swaps, and debt investment in Indonesia, Thailand and S. Korea Considered about 60% of its allowance for creditr losses of $1.08billion to be related to exposures in these three countries

39. Hi-Tech industry (1) Financial crisis caused U.S. high-tech exports to decline nearly 3%, or $3.6 billion, in the first nine months of 1998 (Source: American Electronics Association, AEA) Export activity was slowest in the third quarter, contrasted against the first half of the year, when exports were down only 0.5%. Compared to the third quarter of 1997, exports were off 8%, the AEA said. U.S. high-tech merchandise exports decline first time in this decade (William T. Archey, AEA president and chief executive)

40. Hi-tech industry ( 2 ) For the first nine months of 1998: Electronics exports to Mexico grew nearly 10%, or 1.2 billion, the largest dollar gain. China bought 40% more electronics goods from the U.S., an increase of $612 million. Exports to Europe and Canada, two major U.S. high-tech export destinations, grew 2.5% and 1.8% respectively. Electronics exports to Brazil, the United States' largest South American trading partners, were down nearly $500 million in the first nine months. Exports to South America as a whole increased 1% during the period. U.S. high-tech exports to Asia, excluding China, were off nearly 15% for the nine-month period. Electronics exports were down 70% to Indonesia; 33% to Korea; 26% to Thailand; and 13% to Japan.

41. AGRICULTURE (1) Why the Asian Crisis influence on U.S. Agriculture ? Changes in exchange rates of currencies relative to the U.S. dollar made U.S. agricultural products more expansive Dramatically slower income growth and actual drops in income lowered the purchasing power of Asian consumers The international financial bailouts of some Asian countries required change in trade policies Economic problems in Asia are a drag on economic growth elsewhere. this affects demand for farm goods in all markets, not just in Asia

42. AGRICULTURE (2) There are two effects in the U.S. agriculture : - First, quantities shipped to Asia decline - Second, the dollar prices of agricultural commodities are lower than they would have been in all markets In 1998, exports from U.S. to Canada and Mexico actually increased over this period, however, in Asian markets we see the dramatic impacts of income losses and exchange rate declines

44. TEXTILE INDUSTRY (1) Prior to Asian crisis, the U.S. textile industry has proven itself a global competitor, developed innovative new products and dramatically expanded its export base In 1997-1998, the currencies of almost all the major textile exporting countries in Asia collapsed, causing a shock wave of artificially low priced textile products to hit the U.S. The results is U.S. textile products have plummeted since 1997, U.S textile profits have evaporated, and last year, turned sharply negative Textile fiber consumption is down almost 30% since the Asian crisis began

45. TEXTILE INDUSTRY ( 2 ) Over the last 12 months, the U.S. textile crisis has intensified as Asian currencies have continued to fall : - over 100 textile plants in the U.S. have been closed - textile industry employment was down nearly 60,000 , or more than ten percent of the U.S. textile workforce - In year 2000 was the first annual loss for the textile industry in the more than 50 years

46. STEEL INDUSTRY (1) One of the most productive and cost effective in the world: invested more than $35 billion in new plant and equipment since 1995 � far more than any other nation. Labor productivity has increased by 174% since 1980.� During the same time period, real wages (adjusted for inflation) for American steelworkers have remained stagnant Steel is still the backbone of industrial America: Nearly 2 million Americans are directly and indirectly employed by the steel industry. Key steel-consuming industries employ 6 million U.S. workers, representing nearly 15% of the GNP.

47. STEEL INDUSTRY ( 2 ) 14 steel companies have filed for bankruptcy since the crisis began in 1997. By the end of 1998, the industry was operating at less than 65% of its capacity � the lowest operating level in more than 14 years. Steel imports, which totaled less than 16 million tons in 1991, more than doubled in 10 years to an annual total of nearly 39 million tons in 2000. Prices for steel products have fallen below their low point during the Asian crisis. More than 15,000 steelworker jobs have been lost since January 1998 � 8,400 in the last six months. Wall Street has abandoned the U.S. steel industry, driving stock values so low that 40% of our steelmaking capacity could be purchased for just over $700 million � less than 10% of the cost of building new capacity.

48. PAPER INDUSTRY In 1996, Harnischfeger Industries Inc, a paper making equipment, agreed to sell $600 million of papermaking equipment to Asia Pulp and Paper Company Ltd, as part of that company�s broad expansion plan But as the Asian Financial crisis swelled, Asia Pulp and Paper has paid for only two of those machines. And the other two units are not proceeding Harnishfeger has lost its sales because of Asian Financial crisis

49. CONCLUSIONS Both positive and negative impacts on United State economy Wider effect on specific industries at microeconomic level Impact was minor on macroeconomic level International trade and capital market tied the world together

50. Sources of Information ? IMF, WB, WTO, ADB websites CRS Report for Congress Countries Reports www.thaieconwatch.com www.house.gov www.stern.nyu.edu www.census.gov www.usitc.com www.mof.go.jp www.harvard.edu ���...