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Audit Judgment Confidence

Audit Judgment Confidence. Karen Pincus Discussant: Colin Onita. Purpose of study. Replication study Properly categorize confidence construct as IV or DV (outcome or process variable) Resolve inconsistencies in previous literature

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Audit Judgment Confidence

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  1. Audit Judgment Confidence Karen Pincus Discussant: Colin Onita

  2. Purpose of study • Replication study • Properly categorize confidence construct as IV or DV (outcome or process variable) • Resolve inconsistencies in previous literature • Provide further insight into relationship between individual characteristics and confidence

  3. Confidence as output variable • Logic inconsistencies between accuracy and confidence • Theoretical and literature support lacking • Strawman argument

  4. Confidence as process • Stopping rules • Confidence threshold • No expected relation between accuracy and confidence • Additional stopping rules (not considered) • Social norms – follow the leader, follow the crowd • Task structure • Cognitive representational strategy

  5. Theory • Task structure -the degree to which the necessary inputs, operations on those inputs, and outputs are known and recognizable to the decision maker (Byström and Järvelin1995; March and Simon 1958; Simon 1973, 1981; Vakkari 1999; see also Rowley 2000) • Task representation - the strategy the decision maker adopts to represent the task • Decompositional or holistic (Morera and Budescu 1998; Simon 1981; Smith 1998; Srivastava and Raghubir 2002)

  6. Theory

  7. Impact of individual differences on Confidence • Experience (+) • Ambiguity tolerance (+) - Or maybe (-) • Risk Taking propensity (+) – Similar to AT • Prior expectations (if result similar) (+) – confirmation effect • Not considered • Need for closure • Personality types (Jung) • Others

  8. Data Analysis • Sample size adequate • If data split on correct and incorrect – still adequate? • Power Analysis? • Reliabilities of instruments used ? • Generalizability?

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