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R ationalising Bi odiversity Co nservation in D ynamic E cosystems ( RUBICODE ) Drivers of Ecosystem Service Provision For further information contact Mark Rounsevell (email: mark.rounsevell@ed.ac.uk). Funded under the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme
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Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems (RUBICODE) Drivers of Ecosystem Service Provision For further information contact Mark Rounsevell (email: mark.rounsevell@ed.ac.uk) Funded under the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme Contract Number: 036890
What are drivers? • Drivers (indirect drivers*) are the underlying causes of change in ecosystems. They are exogenous to the ecosystem and are described using narrative storylines. • Pressures (direct drivers*) are the variables that quantify the relevant drivers. They are endogenous to the ecosystem and are represented in scenarios. • For the purpose of this discussion we will consider both drivers and pressures. * Millenium Ecosystem Assessment terminology
Synthesised existing knowledge on drivers of environmental change in order to highlight commonalities, strengths and limitations. Demography is the most referenced and discussed indirect driver of environmental change. Land use and cover change, and climate variability and change are the most commonly referenced direct drivers. Natural, physical and biological phenomena, diseases and wars are the least discussed direct drivers. The majority of studies focus on one spatial scale exclusively. Confusion over differing definitions and terminology needs to be addressed to facilitate the rapid exchange of comparable information. Review of drivers Source: Anastasopoulou et al. (2007). http://www.rubicode.net/rubicode/RUBICODE_Review_on_Drivers.pdf
What are scenarios? • Explorations of possible or plausible futures, for which an underlying set of assumptions have been made. • They are used to demonstrate the drivers underpinning uncertain futures and in showing the consequences to policy-makers. • They are not predictions!!
Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3 After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310 (5752), 1333-1337
Change in European cropland areas for a range of scenario studies Global studies = 1, 2 (Image), 3, 4, 5 Regional studies = 6 (Ateam), 7 (Eururalis) Source: Busch, G. (2007). Future European agricultural landscapes - What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment
Qualitative storylines DRIVERS Quantitative Scenarios PRESSURES Feedback STATE Indicators Impact Assessment IMPACT Policy RESPONSE Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as used by the European Environment Agency Adaptation Frameworks for driver assessment: DPSIR
A simple representation of the relationships between drivers, socio-ecological systems and ecosystem services Social-ecological systems SES … SES 2 SES 1 Multiple Drivers Ecosystem Services People Service Providers Source: Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dawson, T.P. and Harrison, P.A. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation
Framework for the Ecosystem Service Provision (FESP) Social-Ecological System States Supporting system Service Providing Units (SPUs) Drivers e.g. Economy Demography Society Technology (exogenous) Baseline/Futures Ecosystem service beneficiaries (ESB) Ecosystem service providers (ESP) Impact on service provision Pressures e.g. Climate change Land use change Air pollution (endogenous) Adaptation Baseline/Futures Valuation of services and alternatives Responses Policy, strategic decisions and management strategies Mitigation Trade-offs
Ecosystem Service Beneficiaries • Services, as a concept, are only relevant within the context of service beneficiaries. • The attributes of the beneficiaries, as a component part of an ecosystem, are as important as the ecological attributes.
Step 1 Define ESBs, their attributes, conflicts and level of service demand Steps in implementing the FESP approach Step 2 Define services provided to ESBs and their spatio-temporal scale Step 3 Define ESPs, their service supply attributes and supporting systems Step 4 Define the drivers and pressures that affect the ESPs and ESBs Step 7 Assess responses (mitigation and adaptation) Step 5 Quantify impacts on services Step 6 Valuation of service provision and alternatives Source: Rounsevell et al. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation.
Source: Hougner et al. (2006). Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the Stockholm National Urban Park. Ecological Economics, 59: 364-374 An example: seed dispersal in the Stockholm National Urban Park
The acorn dispersal service 85 % of oaks in the park are estimated to result from natural regeneration by the European jay (Garrulus glandarius) How many pairs of jays does it take to provide this service? The answer is 12 jay pairs per year over 14 years
The Stockholm Urban Park (Socio-ecological system) States Oaks & Coniferous forest (Supporting) Drivers Macroeconomics, EU regulations/policies Global climate change Consumer trends Technology (exogenous) SPU threshold (12 breeding pairs) Scenarios Jays (ESP) Urban Population (ESB) Pressures Land cover changes Local climate, Local air, water, soil pollution Alien species, Increases/decreases in visitors (endogenous) Provision of cultural & aesthetic services Storylines Planting or seeding by humans = 16,800 €/jay pair Adaptation (application/ implementation) Valuation of alternatives Responses Protection policies Seeding/planting regimes Trade-offs Mitigation policy
Identifies the mechanisms of either mitigation or adaptation to the environmental change problem through the effect of response strategies on specific pressure or state variables. Mitigation seeks to reduce the severity of the pressures (e.g. use of irrigation to offset yield losses due to reduced precipitation). Adaptation addresses the capacity of the system to cope with changing pressures(e.g. changing crop planting dates to account for changing growing seasons). The social-ecological system is bounded hence responses cannot (normally) influence external drivers. However, society can choose to ‘internalise’ drivers (e.g. CAP maintains European food security by decoupling global markets (external) from agricultural prices). Adaptation & mitigation in FESP
Exogenous Endogenous Sustainable properties of dynamic systems
State State Time Time Cyclical stability STABILITY (steady state) Endogenous, pressures Constant stability Perturbation/driver RESILIENCE Exogenous perturbations or drivers New Steady State? Resistance Robustness Resilience
State Time Properties of Durability (endogenous) and Robustness (exogenous) arise from a systems response to a chronic or enduring pressure No Steady State Shifting trend Examples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous)
Promotion of consistency in the definition of system boundaries (and the associated exogenous drivers and endogenous pressures). Identification of those components of scenarios where uncertainty can be quantified and which variables have high or low uncertainty. Development of participatory approaches to scenario construction that builds on a range of stakeholder perspectives. Development of scenarios of drivers/pressures that effect ecosystem service beneficiaries. Development of conditional probabilistic futures. Development of shock or ‘wildcard’ scenarios. Research needs