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The Harm that Engineers Do

The Harm that Engineers Do. Category 1: Unexpected, unintentional harm . Category 2: Expected, unintentional harm. Example: A new drug cures 90% of cancer cases. In 100% of cases, there are serious side-effects: hair loss and severe gastro-intestinal discomfort, often leading to ulcers.

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The Harm that Engineers Do

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  1. The Harm that Engineers Do • Category 1: Unexpected, unintentional harm. • Category 2: Expected, unintentional harm.

  2. Example: A new drug cures 90% of cancer cases. In 100% of cases, there are serious side-effects: hair loss and severe gastro-intestinal discomfort, often leading to ulcers. The 10% not cured suffer expected, unintended harm.

  3. Example: A new product has been developed that will make life easier and more convenient for people. Its side-effects will kill 50,000 North Americans every year. Should it be developed?

  4. Car A: List price $20,000

  5. Car B: List price $21,000

  6. Questions for Cost-Benefit Analysis Who pays the cost? Who gets the benefit? Who makes the decision? What is the responsibility of the individual engineer?

  7. Jettison heavy radio-isotope generator: Generator debris increases radiation deaths by 50 (total) worldwide over next 10 years 50% chance Shuttle survives Don’t jettison: No chance Shuttle survives, 50% chance generator stays intact.

  8. Cost-Benefit Analysis: Time Value of Money How much must I promise to pay you next September to get you to lend me $100 right now? (assuming your final grade is not affected either way)

  9. Time Value of Money Getting $M next September is as good as getting $M/(1+i) right now So getting $M in n years is as good as getting $M/(1+i)nright now

  10. Time Value of Money From the results just calculated, we can deduce that: Saving the lives of ten billion people in 3000 AD is worth 10 10 lives * 10 7 $/life ----------------------------- right now. (1.05)994

  11. Time Value of Money 10 10 lives * 10 7 $/life ----------------------------- = $0.06. (1.05)994

  12. You run a lab that develops cereal crops for the FAO. One of your genetic engineers has developed a strain of rice with very high yields, protein and vitamin content.

  13. On the way to the press conference, the engineer tells you that to create this rice, she has spliced segments of cow and pig DNA into the cereal genome.

  14. The rice could prevent malnutrition in many parts of the world. But if these genetic modifications become known, many people will refuse to eat it. So, the engineer suggests, no-one else needs to be told.

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