Medicare Beneficiaries’ Choice of Medicare + Choice Plans - A Choice-with-Screening Model

Medicare Beneficiaries’ Choice of Medicare + Choice Plans - A Choice-with-Screening Model Qian Li Economics Department Indiana University Committee chair: Dr. Pravin K. Trivedi Committee member: Dr. Rusty Tchernis

Outline: • Introduction • Model Specification and Estimation • Data • Result • Conclusion

Introduction:

Model Specification and Estimation: • Choice-with-Screening Model:

Model Specification and Estimation: • Modeling the 1st stage of the Decision Process:

Model Specification and Estimation: • Modeling the 2nd stage of the Decision Process:

Model Specification and Estimation: • Estimation Outline:

Data: • Medicare Background:

Data: • Datasets:

Data: • Variables:

Result:

Result Table 7: Coefficient Estimates for the 1st Stage in the Choice-with-Screening Model Bold indicates that more than 90% of the posterior draws have the same sign as the posterior mean. Likely screens: Premium, Prescription Drug Coverage ,Vision Service Coverage Unlikely screens: Non-network Doctor/hospital Service Coverage , Dental Service Coverage Low mean demand → slow convergence Not sure screens: Routine Physical Exam Coverage Data lack of variation

Result Table 8:Coefficient Estimates for the 2nd Stage in the Choice-with-Screening Model Bold indicates that more than 90% of the posterior draws have the same sign as the posterior mean.

Result Put two stages’ result together Average expected preference: Likely screens: insignificant and small Unlikely screens: significant, big and negative Not sure screens: significant, big and negative

Result Table 11:Coefficient Estimates for the Random Coefficient MNP Model Bold indicates that more than 90% of the posterior draws have the same sign as the posterior mean.

Result Compare two models Coefficient Estimates for the 2nd Stage in the Choice-with-Screening Model log marginal density of the data: -210.6577 Coefficient Estimates for the Random Coefficient MNP Model log marginal density of the data: -354.9882

Result Simulate the choice probability Table 13:Hypothetical Choice Sets in the Choice Probability Study Table 14:Probability of Choosing M+C Plan, Plan Attribute Effect Bold indicates that the difference between the Screening Model and the MNP Model is greater that 0.05.

Table 16: Probability of Choosing M+C Plan, Demographics Effect Bold indicates that the difference from the baseline is greater than 2%.

Table 17: Difference of Choice Prob. in Screening Model and in MNP Model Bold indicates that the difference from the baseline is greater than 2%.

Conclusion

Medicare Beneficiaries’ Choice of Medicare + Choice Plans - A Choice-with-Screening Model