"Unraveling the package of climate change" VAROTSOS Costas covar@phys.uoa.gr covar@atmos.umd

1. "Unraveling the package of climate change"VAROTSOS Costas covar@phys.uoa.grcovar@atmos.umd.edu

2. Temporal evolution – 4 regimes

3. Climate variability: from 2 to 3 types of - regimes ? Dichotomy ? ΔT = <ϕ> Δt HTrichotomy Climate (10‐30yrsto50,000yrs) H ≈ 0.4: Fluctuations Growing Macroweather (10daysto10‐30yrs) H ≈ -0.4: Fluctuations Decreasing Weather (upto10days) H ≈ 0.4: Fluctuations Growing

4. Nambu-formulation:forweather forecasting and climate simulations Question:to find out an atmospheric basic equation set suitable for globalweather forecasting and climate simulations Sub-question: How to come to this? The primary demand is tostart from most general equations, that is the nonhydrostaticcompressible system with the rich physical content of a turbulentmulti-component system, including dry air, water vapour, liquid water and theice phase. Answer:The first main result is to demonstrate on that level amodel equation setwithneat conservation of mass, total energy ( with a reasonably closed energy budgetinvolving mechanical and internal energy ) and Ertel's vector vorticity. Based on this result we are in the following strongly interested into applya Nambu-formulation of our model equation set. Starting point is Nevir's (1998).

5. The “dishpan” experiment (The open annulus is topologically equivalent to the open cylinder) For the troposphereScale: Leddy~Lρ(Rossby radius) ~700kmTime-scale: Teddy ~1 day heated from below Rayleigh-Benard convection β: Rossby parameter Prandtl number (kin. visc./ther. diffus.) EdwardLorenz (1956)

6. “Newton's bucket”(May 12, 2006, Phys. Rev. Lett.96 174502) wavy vortex flows in the "Couette-Taylor" system and classical "Kelvin-Helmhotz-Rayleigh" shears. A new class of travelling-wave solutions to the Navier-Stokes equation that exist for Re >1200. (Reynolds nr = Lu/ν) v: kinematic viscosity (visc/dens) The dissipativeterms control the instability threshold

7. New look for "Newton's bucket"May 12 (Phys. Rev. Lett. 96 174502). What happens when you rapidly rotate the bottom plate of an otherwise stationary cylinder filled with water? According to new work by physicists in Denmark, you produce rotating polygons with up to six corners on the water's surface. This new and spectacular type of "instability" could be used to study a wide variety of complex systems in physics, including rotating flows on Earth, hydraulic machinery in industry, vortices and tornadoes

8. Varotsos C, et al.,: The long-term coupling between column ozone and tropopause properties. J Climate 17 (19): 3843-3854, 2004. Mpemba effect

9. AN EXTREME EVENT IN OZONE HOLE ---------------------------------------------------- MAJOR SSW AND THE ANTARCTIC OZONE HOLE SPLITVarotsos C.: The southern hemisphere ozone hole split in 2002. ESPR - Environ Sci & Pollut Res., 9 (6), 375-376, 2002. A transient phenomenon AIM: To identify the time when ozone hole (being a dynamic system) exhibits behavior similar to a phase change First Highlightin United Nations Environ. Programme

10. EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ENVISAT)J-C. Lambert, et al:First ground based validation of SCIAMACHY V5.01 ozone column. ESA’s ACVE-2 Proceedings of SCIAMACHY Validation Workshop, Proc. 2nd Workshop on the atmospheric chemistry validation of Envisat ESA-ESRIN, Frascati, Italy, 3-7 May 2004. Varotsos, C.: The Extraordinary Events of the Major, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, the Diminutive Antarctic Ozone Hole, and its Split in 2002. Environ Sci & Pollut Res, 11 No.6, 405-411, 2004(Invited Review Article)

13. H απώλεια όζοντος έχει δυναμικά ή ανθρωπογενή αίτια? MATCH METHOD Naval Research Lab. Wash. DC Leibniz Institute of Atmos. Physics Service d’Aeronomie, CNRS U of Athens, Dept of Applied Phys NOAA, Boulder, Colorado U of Tokyo Cambridge Univ. NASA, GSFC Alfred Wegener Institute Atmos. Env. Service Canada Section “News” (NATURE 435, p6, 5 MAY 2005)

14. Conclusion[Ο3]Β- [Ο3]Α= L ts + D tdL: depletion rate with solar radiationD:depletion rate without solar radiationt :the corresponding timesL>>D(L=-7 ± 1.5 ppbv/hr, D=-0.5 ± 0.4 ppbv/hr)

15. Radiative Transfer in the Atmosphere Varotsos, C. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D09202, 2005. Varotsos, C.: Geophys. Res. Lett., 21(17), 1787-1790, 1994. Ziemke, J., S. Chandra, J. Herman and C. Varotsos: Erythemally weighted UV trends over northern latitudes derived from Nimbus 7 TOMS measurements. J. Geophys. Res. 105(6), 7373-7382, 2000 "SUVR and Ozone Content as Indicators of Environmental Quality"(EU)

16. Rex, M. et al : Prolonged stratospheric ozone loss in the 1995–96 Arctic winterNATURE,389, 835-838, 1997 Rex, M. et al : In-situ measurements of stratospheric ozone depletion rates in the Arctic Winter 1991/92: A Lagrangian Approach. J.Geoph.Res. 103, 5843-5853, 1998.Schulz, A., et al: Match observations in the Arctic winter 1996/97: High stratospheric ozone loss rates correlate with low temperatures deep inside the polar vortex. Geoph.Res.Let, 27, 205-208, 2000.Schulz A., et al: Arctic ozone loss in threshold conditions:Match observations in 97/98 and 98/99.J.Geoph.Res. 106: 7495-7503, 2001. von der Gathen P., et al : Observational evidence for chemical ozone depletion over the Arctic in winter 1991-92. NATURE, Vol. 375, 131-134, 1995. ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTERS: Anthropogenic and Natural K. Kondratyev, A. A. Grigoryev, C. A. Varotsos, SPRINGER -Praxis, 528 pages, 2002.

19. CORROSION:The decreasing sulphur dioxide levels and increasing vehicle emissions in most parts of Europe has created a new multi-pollutant situation, with effects on materials influenced by NOx, PM, O3 and SO2 impacts. Ferm M, De Santis F, Varotsos C.: Nitric acid measurements in connection with corrosion studies. Atmos. Environ. 39 (35): 6664-6672 2005. ATHENS Université Paris XII, University of Athens Norwegian Institute for Air Research Swiss Federal Labs. for Materials Testing and Research Swedish Environmental Research Institute (IVL)

22. Question:What is the standard paradigm of natural climate variability(up to millennial time scales)? Answer:The red-noise (stochastic field) hypothesis has replaced an olderwhite-noise assumption after the suggestion [Allen and Robertson 1996] that climate variability behaves as a first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) process (obeys an exponential autocorrelation function). Pink (orflicker)noise: spectral density S(f) → 1 / f (Bak et al. 1987) Brown (Brownian motion-Wiener process) or red orrandom walk noise:power spectral density: S(f) → 1 / f2 Long-range memory-process (More slow dacay) The global temperature exhibits a “pinkish”character(months to decades) [e.g., Pelletier & Turcotte, 1999; Varotsos & Kirk-Davidoff, 2006; Varotsos et al. 2012, 2013]. If −1 < β < 1: process isfractionalGaussian noise-fGn; If β = 0: process is Gaussian white-noise (flat power spectrum); if β = 1 a transition from a stationary noise to a nonstationarymotion occurs;If 1 < β < 3 the nonstationary process is a fractional Brownianmotion (fBm), where β = 2 corresponds to a Brownian motion.

23. PART II:Slow and fast climate changes It has long been recognised that despite the slowand gradual climate variability, rapidclimate changes mightbe expected, since the climate system is in an unstable equilibrium(Brooks 1925; Humphreys 1932; Budyko 1962; IPCC, 2007: climate "surprises“). In the climate temporalevolution a small, even random, forcing could trigger rapid and irreversible changes (so-called "tipping points“. Therefore, a small change in initial conditionswould spark a self-sustaining transition between climatestates, which might be abrupt, i.e., with jumps between climateregimes. A compelling example is the melting of Siberian permafrostwhich has beenidentified as one of the tipping points (“methane bomb in the permafrost”: sudden release of Methane from the Arctic tundra due to a thawing of permafrost). A recent example: Belolipetsky PV, Bartsev SI, Degermendzhi AG, Hsu HH, Varotsos CA (2013) Empirical evidence for a double step climate change in twentieth century.http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1303/1303.1581.pdf

24. MAIN RESULTS from Varotsos et al., TAAC 112 (3-4) 2013 • The increase in SST over 30 °S–60 °N during 1900–2012 did not occur slowly and gradually, but abruptly in 1925/1026 and 1987/1988 with time-separated events by 62 years, i.e., an interval reminiscent of the well established quasi-60 year natural cycle. • Apart from these shifts, most of the remaining SST variability can be explained by the ENSO and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). • (2) Before and after the two shifts in SST, the intrinsic properties of the SST time series is unaffected by the modulation of these two shifts. Hence, the plausible forcing that resulted in the SST shifts did not alter the nature of the SST and ENSO variability. • (3)The SST fluctuations exhibit 1/f-type behaviour, which can be established only in the time period between the two SST shifts. • (4) Our results suggest that the SST shifts are an intrinsic property of the climate system.

27. Conclusions

31. Time series of minimum total ozone (Dobson units) over the polar cap, (a)March in the Arctic, and (b) October in the Antarctic, calculated as the minimum ofdaily average column ozone poleward of 63◦ equivalent latitude.

32. Varotsos,C.: et al.: Aircraft observations of the solar ultraviolet irradiance throughout the troposphere.J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D14): 14843-14854, 2001.Varotsos C.: Airborne measurements of aerosol, ozone, and solar ultraviolet irradiance in the troposphere.J. Geophys. Res.110 (D9): art. no. D09202 2005 UV instrument of UoA

33. The blue dots denoting the years with the maximumvalues of VPSC during 5-year intervals and the red dots denoting the years with winters whenmajor sudden stratospheric warming in December–February occurred. Conclusions