N. SCOTT URQUHART RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

1. CSU’s EPA-FUNDEDPROGRAM ON“APPLYING SPATIAL AND TEMPORTAL MODELING OF STATISTICAL SURVEYS TO AQUATIC RESOURCES” N. SCOTT URQUHART RESEARCH SCIENTIST DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY

2. > Indicatator Development - Statistical Perspecitves • > EMAP Site Selection • > The EPA STAR Programs in Statistics (CSU and OrSU) • > Data Management - Importance of Meta Data • > - Value of Analysis from a Common Data Base

3. FIRST - A NAME • THE PROGRAM UNDER DISCUSSION WILL BE CALLED: • “SPACE-TIME AQUATIC RESOURCES MODELING AND ANALYSIS PROGRAM” • CONSEQUENCE: EASY ACRONYM = STARMAP

4. OVERVIEW OF THIS TALK • WHO IS INVOLVED • EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS (“RFA”) • RESPONSES FROM • CSU - Major Participants • Oregon State University • WHAT IS EMAP • IN PARTICULAR, EMAP-TYPE DATA

5. WHO IS INVOLVED? • Jay Breidt • Richard Davis • Jennifer Hoeting • Hari Iyer • Scott Urquhart • Dave Theobald - Natural Resources Ecology Lab • Robin Reich - Forest Science • Jim Loftis - Bioresources Engineering • Collaborators at OSU, SCCWRP, WQTI

6. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) • CONTENT REQUIREMENTS • RESEARCH IN STATISTICS • MANY OF US WOULD CALL THE REQUESTED “RESEARCH” ADAPTATION or DEVELOPMENT • TRAINING OF “FUTURE GENERATIONS” OF ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICIANS • OUTREACH TO THE STATES and TRIBES • ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS

7. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) - continued • MAJOR ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENT • “… EACH OF THE TWO PROGRAMS ESTABLISHED WILL INVOLVE COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH AT MULTIPLE, GEOGRAPHICALLY DIVERSE SITES.” • CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN TWO PROGRAMS • SPECIFICALLY TO AVOID DUPLICATION OF EFFORT • ===> JOINT ANNUAL MEETING ++

8. EPA’s REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS(RFA) - continued III • FUNDING LEVEL: $750K/YEAR/PROGRAM • THE TWO PROGRAMS: • DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED SURVEY METHODOLOGY - @ OSU • SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING, INCORPORATING HIERARCHICAL SURVEY DESIGN, DATA ANALYSIS, MODELING - @ CSU • CHECK ON THE RFA @ • http://es.epa.gov/ncerqa/rfa/aquastat01.html

9. RESPONSE to RFA from CSU • INSTITUTIONS: • COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY • STATISTICS • NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB • FOREST SCIENCE • BIORESOURCE AND AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING • OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY (PROGRAM 1, too) • SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATER RESEARCH PROJECT • WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY, INC

10. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENT • 1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA • 2. LOCAL INFERENCE • 3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS • 4. OUTREACH • 5. ADMINISTRATION/COORDINATION

11. CSU PROPOSAL - APPROACH • TAKE EXISTING SETS OF • PROBABILITY & • NON-PROBABILITY DATA • START WORKING WITH THE DATA WITH A PERSPECTIVE OF DRAWING INFERENCES • IDENTIFY ISSUES WE DON’T KNOW HOW TO HANDLE • HAVE POST-DOCS AND PRE-DOCTORAL STUDENTS CONDUCT RESEARCH ON THESE TOPICS

12. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED • 1. COMBINING ENVIRONMENTAL DATA • FROM SURVEYS TO REMOTELY SENSED • POSSIBLY INCLUDING INFORMATION FROM “HAND-PICKED”SITES • JENNIFER HOETING • DAVIS, BREIDT, REICH, STEVENS (OSU), WEISBERG (SCCWRP), LEECASTER (INL)

13. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED • 2. LOCAL INFERENCE • SMALL AREA EST’M + DECONVOLUTION • JAY BREIDT • DAVIS, HOETING, GITELMAN (OSU)

14. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED II • 3. DEVELOPING AQUATIC INDICATORS • DEVELOPING DATA TO USE IN SPATIAL ANALYSES • LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY • REGIONAL TAXONOMIC RICHNESS • DAVE THEOBALD, NATURAL RESOURCES ECOLOGY LAB • URQUHART, RITTER (SCCWRP)

15. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED III • 4. OUTREACH • “PROPOSALS SHOULD SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS THE EXTENSION OF EXPERTISE ON DESIGN AND ANALYSIS TO STATES AND TRIBES” • HARI IYER & NSU PREPARED THIS PART OF THE CSU RESPONSE • DAVIS, REICH, • JIM LOFTIS (BIORESOURCES ENGINEERING), • STEPHEN JOHNSON (WATER QUALITY TECHNOLOGY)

16. CSU PROPOSAL - CONTENTCONTINUED III • 5. ADMINISTRATION • INTEGRATION AND COORDINATION • URQUHART & DAVIS • STEVENS (OSU) • AQUATIC SUPPORT: HERLIHY & HUGHES (OSU) • GET ALL SORT OF REPORTS TO EPA IN A TIMELY MANNER

17. CSU PROPOSAL - FUNDED ACTIVITIES • POST DOCTORAL FELLOWS • DOCTORAL STUDENTS • FACULTY TIME • OTHER • SUBCONTRACT TO OSU • COMPUTING EQUIPMENT • SUPPORT/TRAVEL

18. OSU COMPANION PROPOSAL • SIMILARILY STRUCTURED • MAJOR DIFFERENCE = FOCUS • DESIGN-BASED/MODEL ASSISTED • OSU SUBCONTRACT TO CSU THE SAME SCALE AS CSU SUBCONTRACT TO OSU • BOTH PROGRAMS HAVE OTHER SUBCONTRACTORS THE FIRST YEAR

19. WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT“AQUATIC RESOURCES”? • THEY ARE THINGS LIKE • STREAMS • RIVERS • WETLANDS • LAKES & PONDS • ESTUARIES • PRAIRIE POTHOLES • NEAR COASTAL OCEANIC WATERS

20. WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?CONTINUED • FOR MOST AQUATIC RESOURCES, • THERE ARE MANY “SMALL” ONES • PROGRESSIVELY FEWER AS THEY GET BIGGER • INTEREST, BIOLOGICAL & SOCIETAL, TENDS TO STAY CONSTANT OR EVEN INCREASE WITH SIZE • SIMPLE RANDOM SAMPLING WOULD SELECT MOSTLY “SMALL” ONES, FEW “BIG” ONES. • IMPLICATION: • UNEQUAL PROBABILITY SAMPLING

21. WHAT IS DISTINCTIVE ABOUT’“AQUATIC RESOURCES”?CONTINUED II • SPATIAL STATISTICS TENDS TO FOCUS ON TWO-DIMENSIONAL SPACE • STREAMS AND RIVERS ESSENTIALLY AMOUNT TO ONE-DIMENSIONAL OBJECTS IN TWO-SPACE • BUT MUCH LANDSCAPE INFORMATION IS COMPLETE COVERAGE IN TWO-SPACE • CHALLENGE: • MERGE THESE PERSPECTIVES

22. WHAT IS EMAP - THE DATA SOURCE? • EPA HAS AN OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT (ORD) • THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING ANDASSESSMENT PROGRAM IS ONE OF ORD’s “FLAGSHIP RESEARCH PROGRAMS” • EVOLVED FROM A GROUP OF RELATED SURVEYS OF STREAM AND LAKE CHEMISTRY DONE BY EPA IN EARLY TO MID 1980’s.

23. EMAP WAS(1989 - 1994) • CONCEIVED TO PROVIDE AN INDICATION OF THE STATUS AND TRENDS IN A VARIETY OF ECOSYSTEMS • STATISTICALLY DEFENSIBLE • FOR “ALL” ECOSYSTEMS • SURFACE WATERS, WETLANDS, ESTUATIES & NEAR COASTAL • FORESTS, AGRICULTURAL, ARID LANDS • INTENDED TO COOPERATE WITH OTHER AGENCIES

24. EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITH • MOST EPA REGIONS • NE (1 & 2) IN MAJOR SURVEY OF LAKES • MIDATLANTIC (3) ON EXTENSIVE SURVEY OF STREAMS • WESTERN RIVER AND STREAM PILOT (8, 9 & 10) - IN PROGRESS • MANY STATES • OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES • NEXT PAGE

25. EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHCONTINUED • OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES • USDA • FOREST SERVICE ===> MAJOR CHANGES IN THEIR SURVEY PERSPECTIVES • NASS (NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICAL SERVICE) MAINLY LED TO CHANGES IN RESPONSES EVALUATED • INTERIOR • NATIONAL PARK SERVICE • GEOLOGICAL SURVEY (USGS) • BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES (FORMERLY PART OF FISH & WILDLIFE) • SOME STREAM SURVEYS

26. EMAP HAS COOPERATED WITHCONTINUED II • OTHER FEDERAL AGENCIES • ... • INTERIOR • … • BUREAU OF RECLAMATION • NATIONAL WETLANDS INVENTORY • COMMERCE • NOAA (NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION) - COAST WATCH PROGRAM • NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE ( A BIT)

27. EMAP HAS CHANGED GREATLY • CHANGED FROM A MONITORING PROGRAM • TO A PROGRAM ON RESEARCH ON MONITORING • EMPHASIS REDUCED TO • SURFACE WATERS • LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY

28. DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVE • DEFINE THE POPULATION OF INTEREST • CONDUCT A PROBABILITY SURVEY OF IT • CAREFULLY DEFINE THE SAMPLING FRAME • VARIABLE PROBABILITY SELECTION OF SITES, BUT WITH SPATIAL BALANCE • CAREFULLY DEFINE RESPONSES TO BE EVALUATED • TRAIN FIELD CREWS WELL • MANAGE DATA WITH CARE AND AN “AUDIT TRAIL” • LEARN FROM PAST MISTAKES, THROUGHOUT • SEE A FEW ILLUSTRATIONS

29. AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKES • LAKES in EPA REGIONS 1 & 2 = NY + NJ + NEW ENGLAND • EMAP = ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING and ASSESSMENT PROGRAM • TIME = TEMPORALLY INTEGRATED MONITORING of ECOSYSTEMS • EFFECT OF ACID RAIN IN MOUNTAINOUS NE • EVALUATED ONLY WATER CHEMISTRY

30. AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLING MODEL - DISCRETE • TWO STEP SELECTION PROCESS • FIRST STEP = SPATIALLY SYSTEMATIC • EMAP = 1/64 EACH YEAR • FOUR YEARS ===> 1/16 AREA SAMPLE • SECOND STEP = PROBABILITY • INCLUSION PROB VARIED BY LAKE SIZE CLASS • SPATIAL RESTRICTION - MILD • CAN BE DESCRIBED FOR INTERESTED PEOPLE • TIME IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME, EXCEPT AN ADDITIONAL 2/64 EXTRACTION WAS DONE • ONLY IN ITS AREAS OF INTEREST

31. MAP OF SITES VISITED

32. AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLE SIZES: EMAP UNIQUE ----- REVISITS ----- SITES SAME YEAR NEXT YR 1991 65 25 0 1992 77 15 7 1993 85 7 7 1994 79 6 6 1995 52 6 6 TOTAL 306 53 20

33. AN EMAP STUDY: NORTHEAST LAKESSAMPLE SIZES: EMAP + TIME UNIQUE ----- REVISITS ----- SITES SAME YEAR NEXT YR 1991 93 25 0 1992 124 15 7 1993 106 8 8 1994 107 9 8 1995 70 8 8 TOTAL 430 57 23

34. MIDATLANTIC HIGHLANDS ASSESSMENT(MAHA) of STREAMS • MOSTLY IN EPA REGION 3 • PA, VA, WV, MD, NY/NJ • MANY PARTICIPANTS • FUNDING = EMAP - OVER WHOLE STUDY REGION • TIME - UPLAND STREAMS FOR ACID DEPOSITION • REMAP = REGIONAL EMAP - REGION 3 • VALLEY STREAMS IN “RIDGE & VALLEY” AREA • STATE PERSONNEL VERY INVOLVED IN FIELD WORK

35. MAHA Study Design: Probability Survey

36. EMAP ILLUSTRATION: WESTERN STREAMS & RIVERS • EPA REGIONS 8, 9 & 10 • 8 = ND, SD, MT, WY, CO, UT • 9 = AZ, NV, CA • 10 = WA, OR, ID • ACTUALLY TWO INDEPENDENT STUDIES • “BLUE LINES” LABELED AS “NONPERENNIAL” BY USGS IN DIGITIZED 1:100,000 MAP FILES • FIELD VISITS TO POINTS LABELED “PERENNIAL”

38. EMAP ILLUSTRATION: WESTERN STREAMS & RIVERS • EMAP SAMPLE COVERS ENTIRE STUDY AREA • REGIONS, AS REMAP, INTENSIFIED SAMPLE IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS • REGION 8: MIDDLE MISSOURI & SD • REGION 9: MOUNTAINOUS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA & AN AREA IN NW CALIFORNIA • REGION 10: AN AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL WA AND NORTH CENTRAL OR

39. EMAP ILLUSTRATION: WESTERN STREAMS & RIVERS • SAMPLING MODEL • CONTINUOUS • USED ENTIRE RF3 ===> NATIONAL HYDROGRAPHY DATASET • NONPERENNIAL • PERENNIAL • AS SAMPLING FRAME • VARIED SAMPLING DENSITY DEPENDING ON • STREAM ORDER • or RIVER SIZE • WITH SPATIAL RESTRICTIONS • STRATIFICATION BY STATE

40. OREGON - WESTERN PILOT

41. OREGON WESTERN PILOT + DESCHUTES/JOHN DAY

42. SAMPLING THE CALIFORNIA BIGHTCONTINUOUS IN TWO DIMENSIONS • MANY LOCAL AND MULTI-COUNTY JURISTICTIONS • VARIED SAMPLING RATE BY OCEAN DEPTH • CONCENTRATED SAMPLING CLOSE TO SEWAGE “OUTFALLS” • NESTING OF VARIABLES EVALUATED INCLUDED IN SPATIAL CONTROL

43. SELECTING SITES - ILLUSTRATION

44. DISTINCTIVE EMAP PERSPECTIVECONTINUED • IF DISCIPLINES LACK TOOLS, SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THEM • STATISTICS INCLUDED • EXAMPLE: EXTEND CONCEPTS OF SAMPLING FROM FINITE POPULATION TO SPATIALLY CONTINUOUS POPULATIONS • NATIONAL RESEARCH CENTER FOR STATISTICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT (~ $1M/YEAR) • UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PAST 5 YEARS • NOW TO BE AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO • TWO PROGRAMS UNDER DISCUSSION HERE

45. FUTURE NEEDS - STATES & TRIBES • STATES AND TRIBES MUST REPORT ON THE CONDITION OF ALL “WATERS” UNDER THEIR JURISTICTION • A REQUIREMENT OF SECTION 305b OF THE CLEAN WATER ACT • RESULTS IN BIANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS • STARTING IN 2004 THE RECOMMENDED STANDARDS WILL CHANGE TO BEING BASED ON PROBABILITY SAMPLING • OUTREACH PROJECT OPPORTUNITY!