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AP STATISTICS LESSON 5 - 3

AP STATISTICS LESSON 5 - 3. SIMULATING EXPERIMENTS. ESSENTIAL QUESTION: How can simulation be used to solve problems involving chance?. Objectives: To simulate problems of chance with the help of a random number table. To simulate problems of chance using the calculator.

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AP STATISTICS LESSON 5 - 3

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  1. AP STATISTICSLESSON 5 - 3 SIMULATING EXPERIMENTS

  2. ESSENTIAL QUESTION: How can simulation be used to solve problems involving chance? Objectives: • To simulate problems of chance with the help of a random number table. • To simulate problems of chance using the calculator.

  3. Three methods of simulation to answer questions involving chance. • Try to estimate the likelihood of a result by actually carrying out the experiment. • Develop a probability model and use it to calculate a theoretical answer. • Start with a model that, in some fashion, reflects the truth about the experiment, and then develop a procedure for simulating of repetitions of the experiment.

  4. Simulation The imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that accurately reflects the experiment under consideration, is called a simulation. Independent (trials) – One event has no effect or influence over the next (e.g. coin tosses).

  5. Simulation Steps Step 1: State the problem or describe the experiment. Step 2: State the assumptions. Step 3: Assign digits to represent outcomes. Step 4: Simulate many repetitions. Step 5: State your conclusions.

  6. Assigning DigitsExample A Choose a person at random from a group of which 70% are employed. One digit simulates one person. For example: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = employed 7, 8, 9 = not employed Note: Other numeric assignments may be used but always try to use the most efficient set.

  7. Assigning DigitsExample B Choose one person at random from a group of 73% are employed. Now two digits simulate one person: For example: 00, 01, 02, . . . . , 72 = employed 73, 74, 75, . . . . , 99 = not employed

  8. Assigning DigitsExample C Choose one person at random form a group of which 50% are employed, 20% are unemployed, and 30% are not in the labor force. There are now three possible outcomes, but the principle is the same. One digit simulates one person: For example: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 = employed 5, 6 = unemployed 7, 8, 9 = not in the labor force

  9. Simulation with the calculator Step 1: Press “Math” button Step 2: Press right arrow “” twice and highlight Prob. Step 3: Press “5” randint Step 4: Press first digit of series, hit comma, then hit number in population, hit the comma button and finally place the number at a time that you want. Close parenthesis.

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