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MURI Presentation

Explore challenges in Navy forecasting environment, visualize solutions, improve TAF workflow models, and enhance forecaster interactions at the Applied Physics Laboratory.

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MURI Presentation

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  1. MURI Presentation David Jones May 21, 2002 Applied Physics Laboratory

  2. Overview • The Navy forecaster environment • TAF Information • TAF Workflow Model • Preliminary Conclusions • Visualization improvements Applied Physics Laboratory

  3. The Work Conditions • The forecaster desk • Limited space • Multiple monitors and data sources Applied Physics Laboratory

  4. Forecaster Interactions • Customer service • Interruptions • Multiple tasks Applied Physics Laboratory

  5. Forecaster Support • The AG observer • Helps anchor the model predictions • Forecaster backup Applied Physics Laboratory

  6. Creating a TAF: Info Used Applied Physics Laboratory

  7. Time with Information Applied Physics Laboratory

  8. MM5 Breakdown Applied Physics Laboratory

  9. A TAF Workflow Model Review Satellite Review Num. Pred. SPIN-UP Check model initialization against satellite & obs Uncertainty Review local TAFS Confirm Check specific model fields Decisions Write TAF parameters Submit TAF Applied Physics Laboratory

  10. Preliminary Conclusions • Heavy reliance on UW MM5 web site • Small portion is used most: loops • EFS not used, yet • Verification of past forecasts not done • Concern with model initialization vs. sat & obs • Tools at hand does not make this easy • Biggest uncertainty for the TAF is whether to stick with model or offset it Applied Physics Laboratory

  11. Visualization Improvements • What we can’t do • Use the “New Paradigm” as a framework for vis. tools • Support where uncertainty is largest Applied Physics Laboratory

  12. Future Work • Analysis of current tapes • More CTA • NWS • Additional Navy forecast center • Based on CTA develop a prototype interface that includes the verification system & EFS • Test of multi-monitors & curved screen (Psych, APL & MS) Applied Physics Laboratory

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