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Macroeconomic Analysis. Financial Market and Expectations. Contents. Financial system and its importance in the Economy Determination of Instalment payments Growth of funds and their present values Fisher Equation: Real and nominal interest rates
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Macroeconomic Analysis Financial Market and Expectations Lecture 10
Contents • Financial system and its importance in the Economy • Determination of Instalment payments • Growth of funds and their present values • Fisher Equation: Real and nominal interest rates • Bond market: Value of bonds and yield to maturity • Arbitrage condition • Stock market: value of stocks by the interest rate, risk premium and growth of dividends • Investment decision problem • Impact of changes in the interest rate in the price of assets Lecture 10
Link Between Financial System and the Economy Y= F(K,L) C T S Funds K FA Deposit Banks Pension Funds Treasury Bonds Profit Equity Lecture 10
Major Players in a Financial Market Savers Households, Corporations and Government G O V E R N M E N T & F S A C E N T R A L B A N K http://www.fsa.co.uk http://www.dmo.gov.uk/ Intermediaries Banks, Insurance Companies, Building Societies, Trusts, Stock and Bonk Markets Investors Small, Medium and Large Private, Public, Domestic and Foreign CATS Lecture 10 http://www.londonstockexchange.com/default.asp
Financing of an Investment Project Need for Capital Demand for output Financing an Investment Project Self Finance Bequests Bonds: Debt Finance Banks, Building Society, Insurance Equity Finance Stock Market (LSE) Maturity Instalment Method Repayment Method No Risk Risk High Risk Lecture 10
Calculations of Instalments on a Loan: Lower Interest Rate Reduces the Interest Payment Lecture 10
Numerical Example for the Instalment Calculations Lecture 10
Calculation of Instalment Payment on 20000 at 8.9 APR at 12 Instalments (from the spreadsheet) D =20000 i = 8.9 APR Lecture 10
Calculations of Instalments on a Loan for Multiple Years Lecture 10
Numerical Example for the Instalment Calculations Lecture 10
Calculation of Instalment Payment on 20000 at 8.9 APR for 5Years (from the spreadsheet) D =20000 i = 8.9 APR Lecture 10
Investment Questions • How much will amount grow if you invest £100 today at 10 percent interest rate in 100 years time? • What is the value of £100 that you will receive after 100 years if market interest rate is 10 percent? • What is the yield to maturity of a bond with face value £1000 which sells in the market for 100 and matures in 10 years time? • What is the yield to maturity if both face value and market prices are equal? • What is the value of a Share that has a face value of 1000 and promised to pay dividend growing at 3 percent and has a risk factor about 2 percent? Lecture 10
More Investment Questions • How do you finance a investment project? • Self finance • Bond Finance • Stock Market • What determines value of a bond? • What is the value of a stock that now pays £1000 as dividend and promises this to grow by 3 percent every year if the market interest rate is 5 percent and risk premium is 8 percent? • How to make a decision to invest or not to invest? Lecture 10
How does 100 invested today grows at different interest in 100 years Lecture 10
Investors Care about the Real not the Nominal Interest Rate: Approximation Rule (Fisher Equation) Lecture 10
Expectation and the financial market: Fisher equation Lecture 10
Market Price of a console Lecture 10
Value of Bonds and Maturity Lecture 10
Higher Long Run Interest Rates are Better for Investment Lecture 10
What is the Present Value of a Console that pays £100 every year for 100 years at various discount factors (interest rates) Lecture 10
What is the Present Value of a Console that pays £100 every year and matures at a given year at Various interest rates Lecture 10
Bond Market and Bond Prices Lecture 10
Yield to maturity depends upon expected bond prices and interest rates Lecture 10
Yield to maturity (Return on a bond that matures at year t) Lecture 10
Government Borrowing (Million £) Source: Bank of England Lecture 10
Stock Market and Stock Prices Lecture 10
AIM Lecture 10
Value of a Stock: An example Lecture 10
Value of a Stock: An example Lecture 10
Largest increases in equity market valuation - FTSE 100 Lecture 10
Observations From the above Analysis of Stock Markets Lecture 10
A Question on Investment Decision Lecture 10
Investment Decision Analysis Lecture 10
Exercises • Difference between real and nominal and short term and long term interest rates • Instalment payments • |Arbitrage conditions and Port-folio allocations in the financial markets • Value of a console • Market value of bonds and stocks • Life time income • Yield to maturity Lecture 10