March 4, 2008

1. Climate Prediction Center Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with Partners Wayne Higgins and Mike Halpert NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center March 4, 2008 1

2. Outline • Message • Role in NOAA Climate Services • Operational Activities • Partnerships • “White Paper” • Climate Test Bed

3. Message • Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future success: • To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change • To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products • To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users • CPC has a framework to develop climate products with partners: • Climate Forecast Product Teams • Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R2O and O2R Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of climate forecast products that meet user needs.

4. Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services… Observe To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies… • Process • Assimilate • -Predict Products & Forecast Services Central Guidance Local Offices Respond & Feedback CPC NCEP Distribute IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Research, Development and Technology Infusion NCEP provides operational support.CPC delivers operational climate forecast products and services. CPO provides support for research and transition activities to accelerate improvements.

5. CPC Role in NOAA Climate Services • Focus: climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) that serve a diverse customer base • Official Productsfor the Nation • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs • Integral to NOAA Seamless Suite of Products “CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.” 2007/08

6. Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004) at NCEP • Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products • Increasesin the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks(20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool). (0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal)

7. Operational Activities • Monitoring Products • Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temp.) • Assessment Products How do we accelerate improvements in the above? • Outreach and Feedback • Partnerships • Applied Research • Transition Activities (R2O; O2R) 4

8. Climate Monitoring Products • Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...) • Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere) • Storm Tracks and Blocking • Monsoons • Oceanic Conditions (global) • Precipitation and Surface Temperature (global and US) • Drought (US, North America; NIDIS) Note: There has been a concerted effort to improve and expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response to user community requests.

9. Climate Outlook Products • Tropical Pacific SSTs • Seasonal and Monthly Outlooks for Precipitation & Temperature (3rd Thu. of the month; Monthly update) • Seasonal Drought Outlook (1st and 3rd Thu. of the month) • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in Aug.) • 6-10 Day (week-1) and 8-14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks (updated daily 3:00pm) • Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics) Note: We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in particular – more climate-weather type products, more variables. What are your needs?

10. Climate Assessment Products • Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web) • ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD) • Weekly ENSO / MJO updates (.ppt, PDF versions available on web) • Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web) • Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns, available on web) • Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS Bulletin) • Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, and Global Tropics) – Day 3-14 – Weather / Climate Connection Note: These products should connect climate to people’s lives. How should we expand and improve the current suite of products to do this?

11. Partnerships • Collaborative partnerships are a key element of CPCs future success: • to gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change • to accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products • to enhance the value of NOAA’s climate services • The partnership “landscape” is complex. • NOAA • Federal Labs and Programs • Academia • Federal Mission Agencies • Emergency Managers and Planners • Federal State and Local Governments • International • Industry • Media • Partners include both the providers and users of climate information. • Regional partnerships are increasingly important.

12. 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research & satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory 40 spaces for visiting scientists NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Predictionat the UMD Research Park (M-Square) Construction Schedule

13. CPC/CTB “White Paper” Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with Partners Table of Contents Executive Summary 2 1.0 Background and Purpose 3 2.0 Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support 4 3.0 Implementation Strategy 7 4.0 Future Priorities 10 5.0 Budget 10 APPENDIX A. Guidelines for Adding Models 11 APPENDIX B. CPC-RISA Workplans 12 APPENDIX C. Climate Products List 14 APPENDIX D. Collaborative Transition Projects 17 APPENDIX E. Strategic Challenges 18 APPENDIX F. Acronyms 21 APPENDIX G. Contact Information 22

14. CPC-RISA Program Goal: to meet RISA-customer needs for climate forecast products Activities: exchanges via CPC & RISA focal points; workplans tailored to customer needs.

15. Sample CPC-RISA Workplan: RISA: Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) CPC/CTB Contact:Jon Gottschalck • RISA Contacts: • Sarah Fleisher Trainor (Outreach Coordinator, ACCAP) • Area of Collaboration: • Development and improved use of storminess products • Aid Alaska’s drought and fire related challenges through better application of CPC official outlooks and new precipitation databases • Status: • Prioritized stakeholder feedback from July 2007 storminess related teleconference • Ongoing research towards improved storminess guidance at extended ranges (week 2 – seasonal) • Strategy being finalized to aid Alaska drought / fire related challenges SEE POSTERS

16. Conversion of CPC Monitoring and Forecast Products to GIS Format Viviane SilvaLloyd Thomas, Mike Halpert and Wayne Higgins BEFORE AFTER Interoperability & Zoom In The CPC conversion to GIS started at CPAS 2 years ago!

17. Climate Products List (Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on NOAA RISA Program input) General Comments: • Output and products geared to the regional level (most recurrent theme). • Access to all forecast elements, rather than just focusing on temperature and precipitation at the surface, including lower troposphere, planetary boundary layer properties, cloud cover information, daily and hourly temperature, time series, and wind speed and direction. • Model and forecast verification data. • Tropical cyclone and tropical storm predictions (from a few weeks to seasonal time scales). • Physical basis for / elucidation of / existence of / role of / properties of / all the “oscillations”: ENSO, PDO, NPO, AMO, SOI, AO, NAO, MJO • More detailed and sustained interaction, formal and informal, through workshops, seminars, and meetings.

18. Climate Products List (Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on input from NOAA RISA Program)

19. Framework for Developing Climate Products with Partners(“White Paper”) • A focusedClimate Forecast Tool Developmenteffort that builds on the success of the CTB and includes opportunities to develop new and improved tools; and • Climate Forecast Product Teamsthat builds on the success of the CPC-RISA program to work with partners to leverage the improved tools and accelerate the development and delivery of user-demanded climate forecast products.

20. Climate Forecast Tool Development Efforts to consolidate climate model forecasts have improved CPC’s official outlooks. Future tool development efforts will build on CPC’s consolidation: - use new models with independent skill; - provide objective verification of all models and official forecasts Develop guidelines to add a new model to CPC’s consolidation: - reproducibility on NCEP computer; - hindcast runs; - sufficient ensemble members and leads; key output variables; - available in real-time for dissemination. CTB (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb) competitive grants programprovides resources

21. Climate Forecast Product Teams • CPC wants to organize two teams that will serve as the functional core of the CPC strategy to accelerate development of climate products in collaboration with partners. • The “Climate Products Outreach Team” (CPOT) • The “Climate Products Implementation Team” (CPIT) • CPOT encourages and engages partnerships. The CPOT is partially mobilized (CPC-RISA program). • CPIT focuses on implementation. • While the two teams are charged to identify or implement climate forecast products, respectively, they also have complementary functions.A lot has been accomplished but additional resources are required.

22. Message • Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future success: • To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change • To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products • To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users • CPC has a framework to develop climate products with partners: • Climate Forecast Product Teams • Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R2O and O2R Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of climate forecast products that meet user needs.

23. NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed Climate Community Climate Test Bed Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission:To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

24. NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed • The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations • Bridge between research & operations • Embraces the R2O and O2R paradigms • The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities • CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR) • Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME) • Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS) • Competitive Grants Program • CTB-COLA Seminar Series • CPC-RISA Program • Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

25. Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the Research to Operations (R2O) & Operations to Research (O2R) paradigm • Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process • Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise (IMME and NMME strategy)

26. Challenges for CTB • CTB infrastructure • Computing and human support for accelerating R2O • O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training – to accelerate R2O • Multi-Model Ensembles • National Strategy • Computer resources for generating hindcasts • Concept of Operations • Memoranda of Agreement with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models & forecast data

27. Summary • CFS and CTB advancing nicely • NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater support for O2R. (Research and transition activities need to build off the operational infrastructure.) • New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction should help facilitate these.