Is the cycle changing? Increased risks? Growing vulnerability? More disasters ?

1. WATER • Is the cycle changing? • Increased risks? • Growing vulnerability? • More disasters ? • Less water for people? • Crisis is looming? • What crisis? • Global or local?

2. U.S. Bureau of the Census Global change drivers: • Population growth, movement and age structures • Geo-political changes and realignments • Trade and subsidies • Technological changes • Climate change

3. World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 1950 Source:U.N. Population Division

4. World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 2015 Source:U.N. Population Division

5. Mackenzie et al (2002) Richards (1991), WRI (1990) Reid & Miller (1989) NOAA Vitousek (1994) Global change impacts • Global change is more than global climate variability/change • It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions • A constellation of changes, many global in domain For example, we see large changes in:

6. From: Steffen et al. 2004

7. The Earth System: Coupling the Physical, Biogeochemical and Human Components

8. 6 5 IPCC Projections for 2100 4 3 Global Temperature (°C) 2 Lower Risk for Instabilities 1 1 0.5 0 0 N.H. Temperature (°C) -0.5 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 High Risk for Instabilities

9. Flood Disaster in Pakistan (August, 2010)

10. Flood Disaster in Korea (September 21, 2010)

11. Flood Disaster in Australia (January, 2011)

13. Does the cycle accelerate?

14. Climate is changing…(for 4 billion years now) • There are many factors leading to changes in the rate of climate change • Whatever the main reason is, the climate variations prompt fordeveloping the water management strategies that take climate uncertainties into account •  the need for • More observation systems • Better predictive modelling tools • Methods to handle uncertainty • Changes in design and adaptive management practices • Changes in educational programmes at all levels

15. Climate change: What do we know? • Global Mean Temperature have increased • Greenhouse Gases play a role • Reducing Emissions alone will not avoid impacts

16. Major floods and droughts worldwide in 2002 China Germany Drought Flood Germany China Korea ドイツ Austria Czech USA Russia China France Afghanistan USA Korea Turkey Mexico Senegal Nepal Bangladesh Haiti/ Jamaica Philippines India Ethiopia Vietnam Sri Lanka Ecuador Indonesia Kenya Micronesia Peru Kenya Bolivia Uruguay There is pressing need to develop advanced risk management on water hazard in order to secure human life and ensure sustainable socio-economic development and poverty alleviation.

17. Physical Vulnerability to Weather-related Disaster and sea level rise (SLR) The map shows area of natural vulnerability to floods, storms, droughts and sea level rise; areas vulnerable to extreme temperature events are not shown. Source: Human Impacts Report, 2009

18. ADAPTATION OPTIONS: • MORE STORAGE • MORE HYDROPOWER • MORE GROUNDWATER USE • MORE INLAND NAVIGATION

19. WE WILL NEED MORE STORAGE STORAGE IS THE NEXUS BETWEEN WATER / FOOD / ENERGY

20. History of US Dam & Reservoir Construction 2000 1950 1900 1800 2000 • • 700% increase in water held by river systems • • Several years of residence time change in many basins • Tripling of river runoff travel times globally (from 20 up to 60 days) • Substantial impact on aquatic biodiversity • Interception of 30% of continental TSS flux Stored Runoff < 2%annual flow 2 10 25 50 100 >100 From: Vörösmarty et al. 2004, Eos-AGU Trans.

21. 7,000 6,150 6,000 4,729 5,000 4,000 3,255 2,486 3,000 2,000 1,406 1,287 746 1,000 43 0 Laos Brazil South China Africa Thailand Ethiopia Australia America North Infrastructure gap: Water storage [m3/person] Water storage per person (m3)

22. THE HYDROPOWER CHALLANGE

23. Water Stress Changes to 2025 (scenario) • •80% of future stress from • population • & development, • notclimate change! • Correct Priorities? • (E.g. 85% US global change • research funding to • climate and carbon) Vörösmarty et al. 2000

24. FLOOD LOSSES IN FUNCTION OF GDP

25. Second message: LOOMING WATER CRISES The time of easy water is over

26. WHAT DO WE HAVE TO RETHINK AFTER RIO+20?

27. Map of flood probability Flow of information in a Hydroinformatics system Data  Models  Knowledge  Decisions Earth observation, monitoring Numerical Weather Prediction Models Data modelling, integration with hydrologic and hydraulic models Access to modelling results Decision support (Source: D. Solomatine)

28. Modelling is the heart of Hydroinformatics • Technologies ensuring the whole information cycle, and integratesdata, models, and humans .

29. One-day-ahead forecasts of the KALMAN-filtered DLCM structural and AR(1) autoregressive (stochastic) combined model with the forecast error standard deviation (+/- σ) One-day-ahead forecast error sequence.

30. Remotely sensed data (Source: D. Solomatine)

31. High Technology Earth Systems Tools • Satellite data • Simulation models • Geospatial analysis tools • Huge progress but…

32. Fifth message: Our capacity to monitor remains limited

33. The data issue: a major source of risk and vulnerability • The case of Africa • Interconnectedness through data • Local data networks: The ethical choice vs. The global needs to mimimize bias • GEOSS: space and in situ observations • Will data secrecy be gone? • Will it be replaced by sharing? • What is the way out of trouble?

34. The big challenge we all have How to put water in the minds of people?

35. SIXTH MESSAGE: WATER EDUCATION, CAPACITY BUILDING, EFFECTIVE PARTNERSHIP

36. Future: Global Campus of Water Education and Research REFORM PROCESS

37. What does that mean for Water Education?