SACN Seminar on sustainable PT

1. SACN Seminar on sustainable PT SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN SUSTAINABLE MEGA PUBLIC TRANSPORT PROJECTS Rapid rail project in Gauteng Romano Del Mistro

2. Downside The “Apartheid” train? Versus Soweto line? Passengers and mode Long distance travel Upside Civil engineering Communication Political will The improved image of PT The capacity The project Background SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN • In a 100 years time? • What would we have done without the Gautrain? • What will the Gautrain be doing without energy?

3. The Gautrain project Sustainability Comparison of alternatives Improving sustainability The real issue Background: Presentation SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

4. Pretoria – Johannesburg 62 km 7 stations 45 000 one way daily passengers (??) (120 000 passengers per day by 2010 ) 11 km of tunnel 7,5 km of bridges R7 billion at 2001 values. 160 km/hr (40min Pta- Jhb) Marlboro – Oliver Tambo International Airport 13 km 3 stations The Gautrain project: Route SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

5. GGP An increase of between 0,4% and 0,5% in the GGP. Operation and maintenance expenditure of R325 million per year R4 billion (60% of budget)to be spent on infrastructure (2002) Jobs 43 000 jobs being created during the construction phase To date … ……more than 6 700 local direct jobs and an estimated total of more than 36 200 direct, indirect and induced jobs. 40 000 jobs could be created as a result of the economic activity related to the Gautrain The Gautrain project: Socio economics: GGP and Jobs SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

6. Ekurhuleni plant to build Gautrain carriages 29 July 2008 Gautrain's 81 carriages will be assembled UCW plant in Nigel Investing about R15 million in their Nigel assembly plant More than R5 million of that in training," Plant would employ 85 people, 17 of whom are currently in Derby Gpg.gov.za The Gautrain project: Socio economics: Jobs and training SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

7. The Gautrain project:Feeder services SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

8. The Gautrain project:The project SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

9. The Gautrain project:The project SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

10. The Gautrain project:The project SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

11. The Gautrain project:The project SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

12. Comparison Generic and Gautrain Total cost Capital cost Ongoing costs Job creation Energy Improving sustainability Passenger volume Creating more jobs Energy Sustainability SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

13. Gautrain Feeder 10km Distributor 5km “Direct” Direct 40 + 2km Sustainability:Gautrain specific SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

14. For feeders and distributors to Gautrain Sustainability: Gautrain specificPeak hour boardings and alightings SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

15. For direct services of alternatives Sustainability: Gautrain specificPeak OD matrix SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

16. Ever increasing costs of mega projects Sustainability: Gautrain specificCapital cost SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN • Capital cost / trip • R30 000 000 000 • @ 12% for 20 years • = R4 billion/yr • For 100 000 pax/day • over 300 days/yr • = R133,88/trip • 44 trips = R5891/month • @ 8% for 200 000/day • = R51.93/trip (R2240/month) actual cpi

17. Gautrain much more costly Sustainability: Gautrain specificCapital cost SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

18. Sustainability: Generic line haulTotal cost / passenger SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

19. Sustainability: Generic line haulTotal cost / passenger – excluding way capital SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

20. Gautrain system is 3 times more costly Sustainability: Gautrain specificTotal annual cost SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

21. Sustainability: Generic line haul“Operating” cost / passenger SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

22. Gautrain system 13% less costly Sustainability: Gautrain specific“Operating” cost SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

23. Sustainability: Generic line haulEnergy consumption / passenger SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

24. Gautrain system uses 5% less energy Sustainability: Gautrain specificEnergy consumption SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

25. More congestion Petrol price Land use policy Shorten trips More passengers; less vehicles Increase passengers Improving Sustainability:Passenger volumes SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN • Gauteng road network • R55 billion?

26. Proposed fleet 210 minibuses = + 672 jobs @3.2/veh) Proposed fleet 97 35-seater buses; 21 55-seater buses; 7 articulated buses. 125 buses in total = + 400 jobs @ 3.2/veh) Improving Sustainability:Creating more jobs- Feeder services SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

27. Affordable energy? ½ of peak supply? Oil future: 2025 • Coal future: 2100 • Uranium future: 2070 Improving Sustainability:Energy Future SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN

28. What is the saving in cost from reducing travel? What is the benefit that is lost: To the individual? To the employer? To the country? Restructuring land use Inducing the private sector “Benefit” Access to choice Cost Access to choice Improving Sustainability:Reducing travel SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN Preparing to be competitive when energy costs are very high ?

29. Fait accompli A civil engineering feat Public transport image Political will Environmental benefits Competitive after sunk costs Best use of R30 billion? Opportunity costs Improve sustainability Increase passengers Reduce cost Reduce trip length?? Effect of fuel price More freeways? Create more jobs Recap minibuses as feeders Restructure land use Induce private sector Conclusions: The Gautrain project SACN PT Sustainability GAUTRAIN But we must also prepare for very high energy costs!