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United Mexican States

United Mexican States. Mexico. 1.9 million square miles Capital – Mexico City Climate – tropical to desert Per capita GDP 5,300 (101/week) National economy $557 billion Population – 97.5 million (2000 census) Almost 50% under age 20 Needs 1 million new jobs a year to keep up with demand.

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United Mexican States

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  1. United Mexican States

  2. Mexico • 1.9 million square miles • Capital – Mexico City • Climate – tropical to desert • Per capita GDP 5,300 (101/week) • National economy $557 billion • Population – 97.5 million (2000 census) • Almost 50% under age 20 • Needs 1 million new jobs a year to keep up with demand

  3. Mexico

  4. History • Olmecs, Mayas, Toltecs, and Aztecs • Well developed cultures existing long before Spanish conquest • Hernan Cortes conquered Mexico 1519-21 • Spanish colonization subsequent 300 years • Padre Miguel Hidalgo declared independence 1810 • 1821 independence treaty signed with Spain

  5. History: Post colonialism • 1822 after failure of a planned monarchy – Mexico declares itself a republic • War for independence led by local Mexicans: • Padre Jose Maria Morelos • Gen Augustin Iturbide (emperor 1822-23) • Gen Antonio Lopez de Santa Ana (1833-55)

  6. Post-colonialism: the struggle for power • 1836 Texas declares itself independent from Mexico • 1846-48 Mexico at war with United States • Napoleonic control of Spanish holding in 1864-67 • Strongman control 1877-1911 General Porfirio Diaz

  7. True Independence? • Mexican Revolution erupts • Severe social and economic problems lead to armed conflict among Mexicans from 1910-20 • 1917 constitution promulgated • What will become the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is formed in 1929 • Pancho Villa, Alvaro Obregon, Emiliano Zapata, Victoriano Huerta • PRI controls Mexican government until 2000 election (71 years).

  8. Results of Mexican Revolution • Undercuts the power of regional landowners • Destroys the power of the Catholic Church at the national level • Limits on the power of foreign investors were established • New political elite in power agreed to act via compromise not violence • New constitution and party lay basis for strong central government able to assert its power

  9. Single Party Dominance of Mexican politics: PRI 1917-2000 • Federal Republic • Separated institutions: • Executive (Felipe Calderón, PAN) • Legislative (22 political parties – 8 with important electoral followings) • Judicial • Balance of power with the executive • President • Executive-legislative balance of power is currently shifting • Congress is bicameral • Senate and Chamber of Deputies

  10. Mexican Presidency • Most dominant branch • Power to write and implement legislation • May also govern by executive decree in economic and financial areas • Universal election for one 6 year term • No vice-president • Succession: provisional presidents elected by Congress

  11. Mexican Congress • Senate • 6 year terms • 128 seats some directly elected/some proportionally elected • No re-election for either chamber • Chamber of Deputies • 3 year terms • 500 deputies • Direct election from single member districts – 300 • Modified form of proportional representation from five electoral regions – 200 (this benefits what groups?)

  12. Mexican Judiciary • Federal and State courts • Federal courts have jurisdiction over civil and felony crimes • Constitution mandates 1 year deadline for administration of justice • crimes carrying 2 + year sentences • Judiciary does not meet this requirement • Trials by judge not jury • Citizens have right to confront accusers, counsel, protection against self incrimination

  13. Politics of Development • 1934-40 Lazaro Cardenas • Attempted to implement goals of revolution • 17 million hectares of land redistributed • Encouraged formation of labor unions • Takes control of oil industry from GB and US • Institutionalizes pattern of succession • Campaigned even though not challenged (cultural characteristic)

  14. Politics of Development:1940-94 • Cardenas reforms do not continue • Succession of PRI leaders develop government into a huge system of patronage • Clientelism structures the political system • Development goals change from egalitarian goals of Cardenas to industrialization and accumulation of wealth • 1940s-1960s growth strong enough to keep citizens content

  15. Development and Oil 1960s-present • Economy slows and stagnates into mid-1970s • International oil crisis • Mexican oil reserves discovered in Gulf • Growth resumes – Mexico borrows against future oil profits • Price of oil collapses in 1981

  16. Mexico and Change • 1994 PRI Presidential candidate Colosio assassinated on campaign trail • Shocking – political violence absent since 1929 • Ernesto Zedillo selected by then president Gortari • El Dedazo • International investors concern about safety of DFI • Assassination gave rise to speculation about possible involvement of PRI, drug cartels, law enforcement, other party officials • Never solved • NAFTA protests out of Chiapas plus perceived political instability cause international bond ratings to collapse • 1994 economic crisis – bailed out by Clinton administration – paid back loans in fullearly!

  17. Mexico and Change • 1994 NAFTA ratified, Chiapas emerging as a serious conflict, Colosio assassinated • 1996 electoral reform plan (proportional representation in lower house –COD) • Mexican citizens were increasingly checking the ability of the PRI to dominate Mexican politics • Simultaneously: government introducing changes in the economy that coincided with economic crises • Recipe for citizen dissatisfaction

  18. Mexican Development • A country with an authoritarian tradition on a path to increased democratization • Economic development via government activism – a successful move to the free market? NAFTA!! • Country with severe economic inequalities – able to provide for the population?

  19. Chiapas – Zapatista National Liberation Front • Chiapas • January 1st 1994 movement seizes four towns in Chiapas • Land • Democratization • Indigenous rights • Repeal of NAFTA • Two different Mexicos • Those moving ahead • Those left behind • Chiapas • January 1st 1994 movement seizes four towns in Chiapas • Land • Democratization • Indigenous rights • Repeal of NAFTA • Two different Mexicos • Those moving ahead • Those left behind

  20. Chiapas • Unresolved sociopolitical conflict • Sporadic clashes since 1994 over unresolved land claims • Fox promised to renew dialogue with Zapatista Rebels • As president he has withdrawn significant military presence from the region • August 2001 peace accords ratified but may be amended in future

  21. NAFTA and Mexico • 85% of Mexico’s exports go to the USA • NAFTA phased in over 10 years • Reduction of tariffs • No influence on domestic subsidies • Impact on Mexican agriculture? • Impact on Mexican urbanization without job growth? • Macro economic evidence is good

  22. Economic Future • Mexico’s Challenges: • Workforce population today is 4 times what it was in 1940 • This is contemporary growth: 1970-end of 90s workforce tripled from 12.9-39.1 million • Agricultural dominance gave way to manufacturing, commerce and service • 1960 ag workers were 54% of the workforce; today they are 21% • Today the service sector is the largest sector of the economy

  23. Economic Future • Can the economy produce upward social mobility, increase the size of the middle class? • Austerity programs restrict the growth of wages. • DFI: 1988-94 quadrupled • US 59% of investments, followed by EU and Canada • 15.6 billion in 1993

  24. Privatization • Mexico in preparation for NAFTA began the process of privatizing its state held industries • 1987: 1,155 firms • 1992: 286 (80% drop) • Who are the new owners? • Post privatization – increased income inequality • 1984-2000

  25. Primary strategy: Privatization Neo-liberal economic reforms with austerity 9th largest economy in the world without an increase in employment Number of university educated is declining Pursued multiple strategies: Land reform Labor intensive exports Domestic saving Small-med sized enterprises Basic education Mexico compared to Taiwan

  26. Mexico and Taiwan • Income and education • 1,600/100,000 enroll in higher education • 3,000 in Costa Rica and 5,300 USA • Income related to education completion

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