Evaluation of FMI ’s New Forecast Model of Surface Friction - Preliminary results/discussion…

1. Evaluation of FMI’s New Forecast Model of Surface Friction - Preliminary results/discussion… Pertti Nurmi Marjo Hippi, Ilkka Juga pertti.nurmi@fmi.fiwww.fmi.fi

2. Background • Research funded by EU_FP7_ROADIDEA project • WP3: Method and model development  Friction model • WP6: Pilot services  Testing the methods in practice • WP8: Validation and evaluation ! • WP9: Dissemination  ”spread the message” • Follow-up to SIRWEC_ROADIDEA paper by Hippi et al.  ID-15 • Closely associated with : • EU_COST Action TU0702 ID-45 (SIRWEC, Thu 5.2.10, 17:15) • EUREKA/Celtic Project WiSafeCar SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

3. Driving atmospheric NWP model Model resolution ECMWF HIRLAM Global ……….. ..……. Regional . . . 10 km . . . . . . Driving atmospheric NWP model Road Weather Model Road Weather SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

4. Wind speed • Temperature • road temperature • air temperature • air dew point Temperature Temperature (road) Temperature (air) Wind Dew point (air) snow icy partly icy frost wet snow wet damp dry Road index • Road index • primary • secondary ooooooo Traffic idx : INTENSITY : water (mm);snow (cm) water (mm/h);snow (cm/h) : SUM | STOR x 10 • Precipitation and storages • water prec. mm/h (), mm ( ) • water storage (- -) • snow prec. mm/h ( ), mm ( ) • snow storage (--) • ice storages (-o- ; --) Precipitation short wave (W/m2) long wave (W/m2) Radiation • Incoming radiation • long wave • short wave Road Weather ModelOutput : SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

5. Ice / snow Water Dry surf Statistical Modelfor Friction : … based on friction as observed by the DSC111 sensor … utilizing road weather model output as predictor variables for the regression equations: SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

6. Statistical Modelfor Friction : Station: Anjala Independent data, winter 2008-09 Station: Anjala Relationship, winter 2007-08 SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

7. Statistical Modelfor Friction : Station: Utti Independent data, winter 2008-09 Station: Utti Relationship, winter 2007-08 SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

8. Road WeatherClassification : 0.15 0.30 Source: Finnish Road Administration SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

9. (ref. D. Stephenson, C. Ferro) (ref. Hogan et al.) Categorical ModelValidation Trad. Scores SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

10. Categorical ModelValidation SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

11. 0.15 0.30 Friction forecasts Categorical ModelValidation Station: Anjala SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

12. 0.15 0.30 Friction forecasts Categorical ModelValidation Station: Utti SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

13. 0.15 0.15 0.30 0.30 Friction forecasts Categorical ModelValidation Station: Anjala Station: Utti SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

14. Novelty Applications Pulp Friction …remember the movie? SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

15. http://pilot.roadidea.eu/mobilefriction/Default.aspx Novelty Applications SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

16. … within the Celtic /WiSafeCar Project • Wireless traffic service platform • Wireless data transfer • Hybrid networking • Mobile application validation • Vehicle vs. mobile data • Service updating • Friction forecasts • Road weather • Incident warnings Potential piloting Driving route TSBS TSBS Road weather station SIRWEC (ID-21) Quebec City 5-7 February 2010

17. Further information : • http://www.roadidea.eu • http://wisafecar.gforge.uni.lu/ • http://tu0702.inrets.fr/ Thank You forYour Attention !