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Bullish! Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc. - Predictive Trading with 40,000+ Markets | Fall 2000 Launch

Learn about Bullish! Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc., a profitable prediction trading platform with 40,000+ markets. Explore their business models, revenue streams, and popular corporate applications. Discover their focus on accuracy, community, liquidity, incentives, and user-friendly design.

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Bullish! Emile Servan-Schreiber NewsFutures, Inc. - Predictive Trading with 40,000+ Markets | Fall 2000 Launch

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  1. Bullish!Emile Servan-SchreiberNewsFutures, Inc

  2. NewsFutures, Inc • Founded in 2000 • Auto financed; Profitable • Nine employees • Two public exchanges (40,000+ markets) • Corporate clients in US, Europe and Asia

  3. Business Models Prediction Trader Panels Corporate Markets Public Markets Technology Licensing

  4. Launch: Fall 2000 36,000 registered traders

  5. Launch: Fall 2004 10,000 registered traders

  6. Customers in Various Industries Pharmaceuticals Automobile Insurance Food Advertising Publishing Consumer Appliances Cable Ten Fortune 1000 clients

  7. Revenue Streams

  8. Popular Corporate Applications • Sales forecasting • Price forecasting • Project / Product prioritization • Product / Feature selection • Regulatory monitoring Prediction & Decision markets

  9. What we are learningalong the way

  10. It’s not only about accuracy It’s not only about: It’s also (mostly?) about: Accuracy Community - Dialogue Liquidity Being heard - Listening Money Focus – Getting on board Incentives Knowledge – Business Value Software User-friendly design Trading (Job security)

  11. It’s not only about accuracy It’s not only about: It’s also (mostly?) about: Accuracy Community - Dialogue Liquidity Being heard - Listening Money Focus – Getting on board incentives Knowledge – Business Value Software User-friendly design Trading (Job security) Experimental Economics Psychology

  12. Markets as Brains Intelligence Accuracy • In both cases • Intelligence emerges from interaction of many relatively dumb parts • Learning by reinforcement & pruning improves performance

  13. What can we do together? • Commercial / Non-commercial software licenses • Scientific collaborations • Experiments • Public or corporate data analysis • New, business-relevant research questions • Trader psychological profiles (real money / play money) • Incentives (short term – long term) • Trader Motivations • Trading styles • Longitudial studies – market as learning system

  14. Contact us!

  15. 0-100 Markets

  16. Multiple-Outcome Marketswith automatic arbitrage (Patent Pending)

  17. Pharmaceutical IndustryTrends 2003Markets sponsored by eLilly

  18. Operational Details • Participants were several hundred people recruited form the general population of NewsFutures.com traders. • Markets operated with virtual money, but with a $10,000 cash prize to split among the 10 most successful traders.

  19. Will a law be passed allowingdrug re-importation? President Bush says that he wants a bill on his desk by Jul 4th. Result = No

  20. Will a new drug benefit be introducedunder Medicare? President Bush says that he wants a bill on his desk by Jul 4th. Late night “arm twisting” as the House of Representative votes on the Medicare bill… Result = Yes

  21. By how much will access to physiciansincrease or decrease (2002 vs 2003)? By how much will access to physiciansincrease or decrease (2002 vs 2003)? Result = +7.4% (sales force headcount increase for top-10 pharma companies)

  22. How many New Molecular Entitieswill be approved by the FDA in 2003? Result = 21

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