THE firma PROJECT

1. THE firma PROJECT The Firma Project has been supported by the European Union’s Framework 5 Programme for Research and Development and by the European Commission as part of its Key Action on Sustainable Management and Quality of Water programme (contract EVK1-CT1999-00016)

2. FIRMA Initial Objectives MAIN OBJECTIVE: To improve water resource planning through the use of multi-agent models that integrate physical, hydrological, cognitive, social and economic aspects of water resource management SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES: 1. Promote co-operation between water resource decision makers and experts in water resource management and in agent-based social simulation. 2. Analyse hydrosocial issues of waste water treatment, water scarcity and integrated catchment planning in selected regions and assemble the data required for agent-based modelling. 3. Develop agent-based models for application to issues of water treatment, scarcity and planning. 4. Carry out participatory integrated assessments in five selected regions, involving stakeholders, scientists and agent-based modelling experts. 5. Compare the management of water and to develop methodology for the agent-based simulation of water resource issues in Europe based on experiences.

3. 3 main themes • Methodological development of agent models • Application of these models to water resource issues in five regions of Europe • Transfer of knowledge, experience and techniques, • between experts on agent-based modelling and experts on water resource management, and • between the project and the wider community of policy makers.

4. Traditional approaches • Lack of transparency for end users • Stakeholder behaviour fixed and exogenous • Aggregate relationships (e.g. aggregate demand) rather than individual behaviour • Constrained by the number of choices that can be represented in the model and conveyed to end users. • Detailed representations of hydrology and hydraulic systems but comparatively primitive representation of decision-making

5. FIRMA Partners • CEMAGREF (Centre National du Machinisme Agricole, du Genie Rural, des Eaux et Forets), FRANCE • CPM (Centre for Policy Modelling), Manchester Metropolitan University, UK • EAWAG (Eidgenoessische Anstalt Fuer Wasserversorgung, Abwasserreinigung und Gewaesserschutz), SWITZERLAND • STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE, UK • IP-CNR (Instituto di Psicologia, Consigilio Nazionale delle Richerche), ITALY • ICIS (International Centre for Integrative Studies), University of Maastricht, The NETHERLANDS • UNIVERSITA AUTÒNOMA de BARCELONA, SPAIN • UNIVERSITÄT KOBLENZ-LANDAU, GERMANY • UNIVERSITY OF SURREY, UK

6. 5 case study regions BARCELONA, SPAIN LIMBURG, THE NETHERLANDS ORB VALLEY, FRANCE THAMES, UK ZÜRICH, SWITZERLAND

7. Policy issues in the case study regions (these are the issues identified in the proposal)

8. Methods • Initial familiarisation • Identification of stakeholders • Outline of main policy issues • Collection of data • Construction of prototype models • Trials of models • Construction of scenarios • Discussion workshops with stakeholders Iterate….

9. FIRMA RESULTS

10. Deliverables • Training course syllabus • Regional application reports • Detailed reports about water resource policy issues in each case study area • Regional models • A range of models (software, role-playing games and documentation) • Using the models in participatory settings • Lessons from our experience • Synthesis of modelling methods • Guidelines for participatory agent-based integrated modelling

11. TRAINING COURSEOnline at: http://firma.cfpm.org/course/index.htm

12. FIRMA Models • Household Water Demand Models for Barcelona and Thames • Maaswerken Negotiation Models • Orb Consumption and Resource Evolution Model and Pollutant Diffusion Model • Pandora Conceptual Model • Zürich Water Games 1, 2 & 3

13. Publications • Asakawa, T and Gilbert, N. (forthcoming). Synthesising experiences: lessons to be learned from internet-mediated simulation games.Simulation and Gaming. • Barreteau, O., Cernesson, F., and Ferrand, N. (2001). Pluralité des références spatiales et sociales pour les acteurs d'un contrat de rivière.Montagnes MéditerranéennesNo.14. pp 47-56. • Conte, R. (2002). Emergent (Info )Institutions,Cognitive Systems Research Volume 2, Issue 2, May 2001, pp 97-110 • Conte, R., Dellarocas, C. (eds) (2001). Social Order in MAS Kluwer. • Conte, R., and Paolucci, M. (2002). Reputation in Artificial Societies Social Beliefs for Social Order Kluwer. • Conte, R. (forthcoming). Cognitive and Social Factors in Reputation in J. Pitt (ed.) Open Agent Societies: Normative Specifications in Multi-Agent Systems Wiley • Conte, R. and Fattori, R. (forthcoming) Cognitivi degli Artefatti Socio-Cultural Sistemi Intelligenti • Conte, R., and Paolucci, M. (forthcoming) Reputation in Partner SelectionRationality and Society • Conte, R., and Sichman, J.S. (forthcoming) Dependence Within And Between Groups Computational and Mathematical Organisation Theory • Downing, T. E., Moss, S. and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2000) Understanding Climate Policy • Using Participatory Agent-Based Social SimulationProceedings of Multi Agent Based Simulation (MABS), Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence Springer Verlag pp198-213. • Gilbert, N., Maltby, S. and Asakawa, T. (2002) Participatory simulations for developing scenarios in environmental resourcemanagement in C. Urban, (ed.) Third Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation. SCS Europe Bvba, Ghent. April 7-9 pp 67-72. • Hare, M., Deadman, P., and Lim, K. in Ghassemi, F. (eds.) (2001) Towards a taxonomy of agent-based simulation models in environmental management Integrating models for natural resources management across disciplines, issues and scales. MODSIM 10-13 December Canberra, Australia. Volume 3: Socioecnonomic systems pp1115-1122 • Hare, M., Gilbert, N., Maltby, S., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2002) An Internet-based Role Playing Game for Developing Stakeholders' Strategies for Sustainable Urban Water Management: Experiences and Comparisons with Face-to-Face GamingISEE, 2002, Sousse, Tunisia. • Hare, M, Gilbert, N., Medugno, D., Asakawa, T., Heeb, J. and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2001) The development of an internet forum for long-term participatory group learning about problems and solutions to sustainable urban water supply management in Hilty, L.M. & Gilgen, P.W. (eds) Sustainability in the Information Society, 15th International Symposium Informatics for Environmental Protection, Part 2: Methods/Workshop Papers Metropolis Verlag, Marburg. pp743-750. • Hare, M., Heeb, J., and Pahl-Wostl C. (2002.) The Symbiotic Relationship between Role Playing Games and Model Development: A case study in‘participatory model building and social learning for sustainable urban water managementISEE, 2002, Sousse, Tunisia. • Hare, M., Heeb, J., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (forthcoming). The Symbiotic Relationship between Role Playing Games and Model Development: A case study in participatory model building and social learning for sustainable urban water management’ ISEE, 2002, Sousse, Tunisia. • Hare, M., Letcher, P., and Jakeman, A.J. (2002). • Hare, H., Medugno, D., Heeb, J., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2002). An applied methodology for participatory model building of agent-based models for urban water management In C. Urban (ed.) Third Workshop on Agent-Based Simulation. SCS-Europe BVBA, April 7-9 pp 61-66. • Hare, M., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (2001). Model uncertainty derived from choice of agent rationality - a lesson for policy assessment modelling in N. Giambiasi and C. Frydman, (eds.) Simulation in Industry: 13th European Simulation Symposium. SCS Europe Bvba, Ghent. pp 854-859. • Hare, M., and Pahl-Wostl, C. (forthcoming). Stakeholder categorisation in processes of participatory integrated assessmentIntegrated Assessment. • Pahl-Wostl, C., and Hare, M. (2002) Participative and Stakeholder-based policy design, analysis and evaluation processes Integrated Assessment Volume 3 • pp 3-14. • Krywkow, J., Valkering, P., Rotmans, J., and van der Veen, A. (2002) Coupling an Agent-Based Model With an Integrated Assessment Model to Investigate Social Aspects of Water Management in C. Urban, (ed.) Workshop 2002: Agent-Based Simulation 3Proceedings, SCS-European Publishing House, Erlangen, Ghent 2002 • Krywkow, J. Valkering, P., Rotmans, J., and van der Veen, A. (2002). Agent-based and Integrated Assessment Modelling for Incorporating Social Dynamics in the Management of the Meuse in the Dutch Province of Limburg in A.E. Rizzoli, and A.J. Jakeman (eds.) Integrated Assessment and Decision SupportProceedings of the First Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society IEMSs, 24 -27 June, University of Lugano, Switzerland Volume 2, pp263- 268. • Möhring, M., and Troitzsch, K. (2001). Lake Anderson revisited by AgentsJournal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Volume 4, No.3 • Moss, S., Pahl Wostl, C. and Downing, T. E. (2001) Agent Based Integrated Assessment Modelling: The example of Climate Change. Integrated AssessmentVolume 2 pp17-30. • Moss, S. (2002) Challenges for Agent-Based Social Simulation of Multilateral Negotiation in K. Dautenhahn, et al. (eds.) Socially Intelligent Agents Kluwer Academic, pp251-258. • Moss, S. (2001) Policy Analysis from First Principles Invited paper for the Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium on Adaptive Agents, Intelligence and Emergent Human Organization: Capturing Complexity Through Agent-Based Modelling Oct 5- 6, 2001 • Moss, S. (2001). Policy Analysis from First PrinciplesProceedings of the US National Academy of Sciences Volume 99: suppl. 3, pp 7267-7274. • Pahl-Wostl, C. and Hare, M. (2002) Stakeholder categorization in participatory integrated assessment processesIntegrated Assessment Volume 3, pp 50-62. • Pedone, R., and Conte, R. (2001). Dynamics of Status Symbols and Social Complexity Social Science Computer Review Volume 19, No. 3, pp. 249-262. • Sauri, D. (forthcoming). El transvassament de l'Ebre: recursos hídrics i equilibri territorial (The Ebre water transfer: water resources and territorial equilibrum) in Nel. lo, O. (ed) Aquí no! ("Not here!"). Barcelona: Empúries • Sauri, D. (2002) Lights and shadows of urban water demand management: the case of the Metropolitan Region of BarcelonaEuropean Planning Studies • Sichman, J.S. and Conte, R. (2002) Multi-Agent Dependence by Dependence Graph in C. Castelfranchi, and W.L. Johnson (eds) Bringing People and Agents Together, Proceedings of Autonomous Agents & MAS Conference AAMAS 2002 ACM Press, Part I, 483-91. http://firma.cfpm.org/

14. Key Lessons Learned (i) • Agent-based approaches allow the involvement of stakeholders in the development of models. • Agent-based approaches aid policy development by supporting stakeholder learning about the complex dynamics of water resource management and other stakeholders’ viewpoints. • Agent-based approaches yield a richer base for policy-making than using traditional modelling approaches.

15. Key Lessons Learned (ii) • Many agent-based models rather than a single common model are needed because the effects of water policy implementation differ according to context and history. • There are many types of agent-based model and stakeholder participation so it is necessary to consider the most appropriate approach for a particular policy context. • There are some common building blocks from which a variety of agent-based models can be constructed

16. Key Lessons Learned (iii) To summarise, the Firma project has focussed on the ‘bottom up’ development of possible futures • Using agent-based modelling • In partnership with stakeholders • To develop shared representations of • Social and political structures • Natural conditions • That allow for clarifying and sharing perspectives • In order to develop a better understanding of what needs to be considered or controlled in order to influence behaviour We believe that the Firma approach will lead to a new way of using participatory processes and integrated assessment models

17. Other outputs The project has… • Raised the profile of participatory methods in resource management • Provided proof-of-concept for participatory agent-based models • Developed a strong network between the Firma partners which may lead to further collaborations

18. Next steps… • Continued work and interaction with stakeholders • e.g. formal feedback, model development, policy implications • Possible applications in other regions within and outside of the EU • Applications related to other resources besides freshwater

19. With thanks to • The European Commission • Our project officer • All our stakeholder representatives • Those who have provided us with data, answered our survey questionnaires, and taken us on guided tours • The 42 people who have worked on the project over the last three years