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HFIP TC EPS web

HFIP TC EPS web. Analysis of TC tracks from five ensemble prediction systems NCEP – GEFS CMC.ca – EPS ECMWF – EPS UKMO – MOGREPS ESRL – FIM8 (30 km) using on GFS T382 EnKF Gridded Products Hit or # of member positions in a 1deg box per forecast time (tau)

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HFIP TC EPS web

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  1. HFIP TC EPS web • Analysis of TC tracks from five ensemble prediction systems • NCEP – GEFS • CMC.ca – EPS • ECMWF – EPS • UKMO – MOGREPS • ESRL – FIM8 (30 km) using on GFS T382 EnKF • Gridded Products • Hit or # of member positions in a 1deg box per forecast time (tau) • Strike Probability – accumulated with tau

  2. http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps

  3. tcepsbuttonology… time / TC / model status zm++ to zoom in zm– to zoom out (for laptop displays model systems clicking on these buttons brings up all the base dtgs for this model base ‘dtg’ (date-time-group: YYYYMMDDHH) defined by model, 5 are displayed but clicking moves the dtgs… all TCs (3-char ATCF ids) for current DTG grey’ed out buttons means no products from that model available product buttons details in next slide

  4. tceps products buttonology… available forecast taus product type: HIT – count analysis StkP – strike probability AniGif – animated ..gif of all ‘taus’ (forecast times) VERI – display verifying best track

  5. Impact of Initial Conditions • strong signal that GFS-EnKF FIM9 (15 km) deterministic forecast are superior to GFS-GSI FIM9 • GFS-EnKF uses same model and observations as GFS-GSI, except for TC obs based on TCvitals • bug in EnKF assimilated only the central pressure from the TC obs

  6. Impact of Resolution effect of resolution on the deterministic track forecast is negligible number of cases is small, but because runs separated by 24 h, less serial correlation

  7. Impact of TC obs only used central pressure from TCvitals file… initial intensity bias cut by more than from -34 to -15 kt

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