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Mining Greenfield Project - Key Value Drivers. Due to high risk associated with early stage exploration projects – the key question in valuing projects is
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Mining Greenfield Project - Key Value Drivers Due to high risk associated with early stage exploration projects – the key question in valuing projects is • Whether this particular mining project under reasonable assumptions in current market environment will be implemented or not within a reasonable time frame – up to 5-15 years? The majority of the factors that influence the response of this question are the following most important value related questions: • Whether the final product/mineral is cyclic or defensive determines future price expectations of salable product • What is the market structure of a salable product? • Is this a end user product or this is intermediate product which requires huge CAPEX for the next processing stage(-s)? • What is the market consolidation? - Consolidated/Competetive • What is the market liquidity? - Liquid/non liquid • What are the current producers/potential Greenfield projects for relevant mineral and what are their position compared to our project?
Two Groups of Minerals • Cyclical minerals– lower value projects • Non-cyclical minerals – higher value projects
Cyclical Minerals • In the context of expected World recession (2-3 years), consider the key demand drivers for key minerals and there market structure • Iron ore (Fe 63-65% - lump, sinter feed, pellet feed)* • Highly cyclical – world steel demand is highly dependent on world steel growth rates • Iron ore world market is liquid and consolidated (only 3 main producers) which exert some support to the iron ore prices, all other things equal • Laterite nickel concentrate (~ 10-20% of Ni)** • Highly cyclical – ~70% of nickel is used in a steel alloying, the rest ~30% of nickel use is also somehow related to the growth • Laterite nickel concentrate market is illiquid: there are no many Nickel smelters that are not vertically integrated. In case of adverse price shocks, nickel concentrate production margin shrinks more than the metal nickel production margin • Vanadium sulphide concentrate (~ 25% of VS4)*** • Highly cyclical – 90% of Vanadium consumption is steel alloying. Lower growth rates means lower demand for steel in general and of V –alloyed steel in particular. Besides, to some extend V can be considered as a steel substitute – more V-alloying means less steel consumption requirement per unit of consumption • The market of vanadium concentrate is very illiquid, besides, there is a strong probability that this type of project will require deep processing facilities up to final product (V2O5/FeV) • Lithium - spodumene concentrate (~ 6% of Li2O)**** • Cyclical/moderately cyclical ~ mostly consumed in Li-batteries, ceramics – the key driver – Electric/hybrid car production growth will stagnate in 2009-2011 due to low oil prices • The market of spodumene concentrate is very illiquid – most of hard rock Li-producers are integrated * - this is the best choice of the salable product, since it is not likely to get fuel for pelletization at low prices, and in Brazil there is no coking coal for pig iron production ** - Ni concentrate is the best choice as a salable product, since the following Ni processing stages (to metal Ni) require huge capital investments (~ 1-3 billion $) *** - Vanadium sulphide concentrate is the best choice as a salable product, since the following V processing stages (to V2O5 / FeV) require huge capital investments **** - Li - spodumene concentrate is the best choice as a salable product, since the following Li processing stages require huge capital investments
Non-Cyclical Minerals • In the context of the following World recession in the future 2-3 years • Gold • Not cyclical/counter cyclical – the world gold demand is primary dependent on the uncertainty related to World currency fluctuation and US dollar positioning weakening as a World reserve currency: the demand for gold is primary driven by value preservation concerns • Gold world market is very liquid and transparent: negligible transportation cost and large market in any big city in the World • The Gold project on a stand along basis assumes production of the pure Gold – not intermediate products with quite reasonable capital expenditures • Current Au prices dynamics exhibits very strong counter cycle behavior • Phosphates (P2O5) • Not cyclical – used primary in fertilizers production for agricultural need – in any crisis the food is a basic need (the demand for basic food is very inelastic to disposable income) • World population growth rates is not very sensitive to the World crises, which determines additional demand growth for food and, consequently, fertilizers demand growth • There is a transparent and liquid market in Brazil – one of the biggest agro countries – Brazil imports huge amounts of phosphates • Currently phosphates (P2O5) prices exhibit also counter cyclical behavior
Greenfield Mining Project Value Drivers Tree Key Greenfield mining project value drivers are • Future pricing expectation of salable product • Exploration cost • Minable reserves estimate, ore grade, target production rate • Infrastructure CAPEX • Processing plant CAPEX • Processing cost per tonne of salable product