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Probabilistic Assessment Study: 2020 Supply Analysis Results

Explore the comprehensive assessment results of the NERC Probabilistic Assessment Study for 2020, focusing on metrics like LOLH and EUE, with detailed simulations and load sensitivity studies. Assumptions, outage modeling, and future steps.

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Probabilistic Assessment Study: 2020 Supply Analysis Results

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  1. NERC 2016 Probabilistic Assessment Study Results Supply Analysis Working Group Meeting, 1/17/2017 Pete Warnken

  2. Study Background • NERC Probabilistic Assessment (ProbA) study conducted every two years • Purpose of ProbA study is to calculate annual and monthly probabilistic reliability metrics based on reported NERC 2016 Long Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) resources and loads • Evaluation or determination of target reserve margins is not within the study scope

  3. Study Background • Metrics include • Loss of Load Hours (LOLH) per year • Expected Unserved Energy (EUE) per year (MWhs) • EUE/Net Energy for Load • Simulations conducted for two study years: 2018 and 2020 • NERC requested both a base study and load sensitivity study

  4. Study Background • Load sensitivity study: • For 2018, peak load and energy scaled up by 2% • For 2020, peak load was scaled up by 4% and energy scaled up by 2% • Astrapé Consulting performed the 2016 study using their Strategic Energy & Risk Valuation Model • 2016 LTRA data closely matches May 2016 CDR

  5. Study Results - Annual • Results for 2018 simulation year • Results for 2020 simulation year

  6. Study Results - Monthly • Results for 2020 simulation year • Results for 2018 simulation year Occurrence of non-zero values in June driven by the 2012 weather year used to produce the load forecast; the second highest annual peak load from 2002 through 2014 occurred in June 2012.

  7. Assumptions & Methods • Transmission Topology • Demand Uncertainty • Modeled 13 historical load shapes (2002-2014) along with five economic load forecast error multipliers (range from 0.96 to 1.04) • Total of 65 full-year load scenarios modeled

  8. Assumptions & Methods • Outage Modeling • Astrapé developed generating unit Time-to-Fail and Time-to-Repair distributions using ERCOT-supplied outage data • Full and partial unit outages represented in the modeling • Monte Carlo draws resulted in the following aggregate EFORs:

  9. Assumptions & Methods • Model sheds load to maintain 500 MW of regulation reserves and 500 MW of spinning reserves • Load Resources:

  10. Next Steps • ERCOT ProbA study report (submitted to NERC) available on SAWG meeting Webpage; not seeking comments – for your information only • NERC’s Reliability Assessment Subcommittee to review NERC draft report and submit comments by January 20 • Public release of NERC ProbA report in March 2017

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