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Climate Change and Freshwater

Climate Change and Freshwater. Biology 402 Lecture October 1, 2009. CLIMATE - CURRENT AND PROJECTED. CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES. CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA. FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS. Outline. Current and Projected Climate Change Case Studies

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Climate Change and Freshwater

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  1. Climate Change and Freshwater Biology 402 Lecture October 1, 2009

  2. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Outline • Current and Projected Climate Change • Case Studies • Climate Change Impacts Lakes in Canada’s Boreal Forest • Climate Change Reduces Productivity in Lake Tanganyika, Africa • Ways of Forecasting the Effects of Future Climate Change

  3. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS IPCC 2001

  4. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS IPCC 2007

  5. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Surface waters of northern hemisphere lakes expected to increase 1-7°C by 2100 Magnuson et al. 1997

  6. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS IPCC 2007

  7. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Changes in Precipitation IPCC 2007

  8. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Changes in Glacier Mass IPCC 2007

  9. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Alberta Glaciers Reduced By ~25% in Last Century 1897 2002 Schindler and Donahue,2006

  10. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Climate Warming Is Extending Ice Free Season Jensen et al. 2007

  11. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Invasive Species Rahel and Olden, 2008

  12. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Effects of Climatic Warming on Lakes of the Central Boreal ForestScience - 1990D.W. Schindler, K.G. Beaty, E.J. Fee, D.R. Cruikshank, E.R. DeBruyn, D.L. Findlay, G.A. Linsey, J.A. Shearer, M.P. Stainton, and M.A. Turner

  13. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Long Term Data Set (1969-1990) • ELA - Experimental Lakes Area • Climate Data • Hydrological Data • Lake Chemistry Data • Biological Data Schindler et al. 1990

  14. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Increased by ~2°C Schindler et al. 1990

  15. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Warmer Lake Temp Longer Ice Free Season Increased by ~2°C Schindler et al. 1990

  16. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Reduction in average precipitation Reduced run-off and water renewal rates Increased by ~2°C Schindler et al. 1990

  17. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Increased Nitrogen Reduced run-off and water renewal rates Leads to overall increase in N:P ratio, increasing P limitation

  18. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Warmer Water Increased Phytoplankton Biomass and Diversity Increased Nutrients Schindler et al. 1990

  19. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Forest Fires in 1974 and 1980 Burned Large Parts of Watershed www.umanitoba.ca/institutes/fisheries/

  20. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Warmer Temperatures and Reduced Forest Cover Caused Higher Wind Velocities Schindler et al. 1990

  21. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Reduced Runoff and Organic Matter in Watershed Caused an Increase in Water Clarity Schindler et al. 1990

  22. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Increased Light Penetration and Wind Velocity Caused Thermocline to Deepen Schindler et al. 1990

  23. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS nas.er.usgs.gov Deepening of Thermocline May Extirpate Species That Rely on Cold Oxygenated Water in The Hypolimnion as a Refuge www.wildernessclassroom.com Schindler et al. 1990

  24. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Summary • Longer Warmer Summers • More Nutrients and Phytoplankton • Deeper Thermoclines • Possible Extirpation of Cold Water Species www.umanitoba.ca/institutes/fisheries/ Schindler et al. 1990

  25. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Climate Change Decreases Aquatic Ecosystem Productivity of Lake Tanganyika, AfricaNature - 2003C.M. O’Reilly, S.R. Alin, P-D. Plisnier, A.S. Cohen, and B.A. McKee

  26. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Lake Tanganyika • Extremely large • Average Depth - 570m • Max Depth - 1,470m • Mean Width - 50km • Mean Length - 650km • Surrounded by Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo www.waterworld-aquatics.com O’Reilly et al. 2003

  27. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Importance of Lake • Historically supported highly productive fishery • 165,000-200,000 metric tons per year • Large source of nutrition and revenue for neighboring countries travel.aol.com • However, fishery productivity has been declining O’Reilly et al. 2003

  28. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Climate Changes • Warmer air temperatures • Lower wind velocities O’Reilly et al. 2003

  29. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS More Stable Surface Waters • Warmer waters at all depths • Reduced mixing • Decreasing upwelling of nutrient rich deep waters 150 m 600 m Depth of Stratification O’Reilly et al. 2003

  30. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Warmer Waters and Shallower • Overall reduction in primary productivity (~20%) • Explains the decrease in fish productivity O’Reilly et al. 2003

  31. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Summary • Climate change increased surface water stability - warming and less wind • Reductions in deepwater nutrient upwelling • Lower primary productivity resulted in declines in fish productivity • Future projections of 1.3-1.7°C air temp warming in next 80 years • Further reductions in ecosystem productivity O’Reilly et al. 2003

  32. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Forecasting Future Impacts of Climate Change www.treehugger.com

  33. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Long Term Data Sets Look at past changes in climate and extrapolate using future climate scenarios

  34. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS However . . . The way ecosystems respond may not be constant across further increases in temperature

  35. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Arctic Daphnia show non-linear feeding response with increasing temperature If curve different from prey growth rates, trophic interactions will change with temperature Yurista 1999

  36. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Requires investigation into the mechanisms behind biotic interactions

  37. CLIMATE-CURRENT AND PROJECTED CASE STUDY CANADA’S LAKES CASE STUDY LAKE TANGANYIKA FORECASTING FUTURE IMPACTS Long term data sets coupled with mechanistic experiments provide good way of predicting future climate change effects on aquatic ecosystems www.limnology.wisc.edu

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