Joint Regional OSSE at ESRL/GSD

1. Joint Regional OSSE at ESRL/GSD Yuanfu Xie and ZoltanToth NOAA/ESRL/GSD/FAB Contributors: Nikki Prive, Scott Markaro and Yu Zhang

2. Outline • Review of GSD regional OSSE work; • Global OSSE connection; • Building a NOAA OSSE testbed; • Regional OSSE plan and work.

3. Joint Regional Quick Hurricane OSSE with AOML • A nature run has been generated with 2km resolution forced by analysis boundary conditions (with Scott Markaroand Nikki Prive); • Some evaluation of the NR has been performed by AOML; • The NR reflects some realism of Hurricane Ike, intensity and track; • It is ready for use;

4. Configuration of NR: WRF-ARW

5. Regional Nature Run Using Analysis as Boundary Conditions for Hurricane Ike

6. Regional Nature Run Using Analysis as Boundary Conditions for Hurricane Ike

7. Realistic Track and Intensity Intensity Track

8. Realistic Intensity Axisymmetric tangential wind (color, m/s) and radial winds (outward solid contours, inward dotted contours, contour interval 2.5 m/s) valid: 12 UTC 5 September, 2008

9. UAS LALE flight design * Flight path of Low-Altitude, Long-Endurance (LALE) UAS at 1 km altitude into Ike. Wind speed, m/s, in color. Our plan is to use different DA scheme to initialize the HWRF model for evaluating The UAS impact on hurricane intensity

10. Global OSSE Connection • AOML under the leadership of Dr. Atlas is working on a more sophisticated regional OSSE for hurricanes collaborating with GSD and University of Miami; • GSD/FAB is also considering alternative NR for regional OSSE applications, HMT, renewable energy; • Global OSSE is critical for a regional OSSE for providing boundary conditions, which is usually a main problem for regional one; • GSD has a global OSSE system and is working with AOML and UM for conducting the rigorous regional OSSE.

11. Joint Global OSSE Connecting a Regional OSSE • ECMWF 13 month (May 1, 2005 – June 1m 2006) forecast is used as NR at T511 with 91 levels; • Validation has been performed by NCEP, NASA, and GSD; • Full set of synthetic observations has been generated, including RAOB, ACAR, AIRS, AMSU, GOES, and so on; • Assimilation systems: NCEP GSI and GFS; • GSD has spent 3.5 years calibrating this OSSE system for the 5 major observation systems; • Synthetic data of UAS and WISDOM has generated and used in a UAS OSSE and a WISDOM OSSE, a UAS OSSE report has been submitted to NOAA/UAS.

12. Synthetic UAS data Aug 1 12Z - Aug 7 00Z

14. Synthetic WISDOM data • Twice a day: • 1th/Aug ~ 5th/Aug • Get the WISDOM data: • Every 30 minutes • Two levels • Drift height: • 3650m/8000m Balloon numbers: 5*2*2*111=2220 Total data : 427,128

15. WISDOM OSSE numerical results Balloon location and forecast track for the 6 Aug 00Z The number of balloon data: 21312

16. NOAA OSSE Testbed (Regional) NOAA regional OSSE testbed should be able • to use different global OSSEs for boundary conditions • GSD has a calibrated one; • to have a common synthetic data generator • GSD has UAS and WISDOM generators and share a package with NCEP for insitu and satellite observations; • to allow user choose different data assimilation techniques and forecast models • GSD has some DA options, LAPS , STMAS and GSI; • to build a set of calibrated observation errors • GSD uses an error adding code from NASA/GMAO; • to develop targeting observation schemes • GSD is working with NCEP/EMC for adapting WSR targeting software to the global OSSE system Such flexible testbed could support various regional OSSE applications.

17. GSD Regional Applications and Future work • HMT: • Identify observation need and distribution for improving QPF; • Renewable Energy: • Provide guidance on future observation systems improving wind and solar prediction; • Hurricane: • Collaborate with AOML and UM for conducting a regional hurricane OSSE for intensity;