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Models in IE Lecture 13

Models in IE Lecture 13. System Dynamics 2nd Lecture Systems Archetypes. Lecture 13: Outline. More examples of causal-loop diagrams Glucose and Insulin What is wrong? How could such a bad system evolve? Natural systems, man-made systems What to look for when systems behave poorly

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Models in IE Lecture 13

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  1. Models in IE Lecture 13 System Dynamics 2nd Lecture Systems Archetypes

  2. Lecture 13: Outline • More examples of causal-loop diagrams • Glucose and Insulin • What is wrong? • How could such a bad system evolve? • Natural systems, man-made systems • What to look for when systems behave poorly • Common Patterns: System Archetypes • Success to the successful • Escalation

  3. Analysis of an argumentorHow to make a mountain out of a molehill

  4. + A’s anger A’s harshness + + B’s harshness B’s anger +

  5. Mountains out of Molehills • Whose fault is it? • “You started it” • Cause, effect, and blame are not clear in complex systems

  6. + Eat Candy Blood Glucose Level + - Hunger Level

  7. + Eat Candy Blood Glucose Level - + + Delay Hunger Level - Insulin Production

  8. Oscillations that increase in amplitude over time area danger signal

  9. Glucose and Insulin • How could nature be so stupid? • How could such an unfit system survive?

  10. Nature isn’t stupid -- We are! • 1st appearance of insulin regulation • 10,000,000-70,000,000 years ago • 1st appearance of refined sugar • 1500 to 2400 years ago

  11. + Eat Complex Carbohydrates Delay Blood Glucose Level - + + Delay Hunger Level - Insulin Production

  12. Eat Complex Carbohydrates + Delay Blood Glucose Level + + - Eat Candy + + Delay + Insulin Production Hunger Level -

  13. Natural & Man-Made Systems • Natural systems have usually evolved so that timings work well • Introduce a new element into a smoothly running system and you are lucky if timings remain good • As change rate of technology  this problem occurs more frequently

  14. “The road to hell is paved with good intentions” “The hurrieder I go, the behinder I get” “The harder we run, the more we seem to stay in the same place”

  15. “When your best isn’t good enough…” “I keep banging my head against the same wall” Time for a systems perspective

  16. Understanding System Performance

  17. Recurring, classic patterns Identified in Peter Senge’s book, The Fifth Discipline (Chapters 6-16, Appendix 2) Should become part of your permanent vocabulary Escalation Balancing loop with delay Success to the successful Tragedy of the commons Limits to growth Shifting the burden System Archetypes

  18. For Next Class… • Read about the different system archetypes • Bring your book to class • open book Quiz forecast w.p. .8

  19. Feedback: class performance on homework • Good but not excellent overall • Don’t complain about 6 hours/week! • 2nd half of term much harder • Many of the harder problems are difficult conceptually, not technically • try harder • try more than once (many already do). • Most work on Little’s Law problem, (6a.m, 6pm) was unsatisfactory. Switch majors

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