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Wave Forecast System for the Portuguese Coast

An operational wave model, WaveWatch III, used to forecast waves along the Portuguese coast. Provides 72-hour forecasts updated daily.

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Wave Forecast System for the Portuguese Coast

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  1. Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast http://www.maretec.mohid.com/ww3

  2. Who forecasts waves in Portugal? • Project MOCASSIM (IH) • Operational wave model for the Portuguese coast (Pinto et al, 2004) • WaveWatch III model predictions for the Iberian western coast (Pinto et al, 2003) • Tests with SWAN coupled with WW3 • Instituto de Meteorologia • 24 hours forecast (no spatial resolution) • Sites de surf • Use coarse resolution U.S. model results • Outras aplicações de modelos de ondas • IST (Naval, Guedes Soares)

  3. Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast – Present state • Wave model – Wave Watch III • Most used model for meso-scale wave modelling • Wind models • GFS (NCAR - resolution = 1ºx1º) • ARPS (MeteoGalicia – resolution = 50x50 km)

  4. Wave Watch III - v2.22 • Wave Watch III (Tolman 1997, 1999a) • Refraction • Source terms (2 packages: WAM model or Tolman and Chalikov (1996)) • Wave growth and decay due to wind • Nonlinear resonant interactions • “Whitecapping” (dissipation) • Bottom friction • Linear wave propagation • Sub-grid representation of unresolved islands (not used by us, but to be) • ANSI FORTRAN90 modular, most computing options performed at compile level, OpenMP, MPI

  5. Wave Forecast system for the Portuguese Coast – Present state • Model setup (Pablo Carracedo – MeteoGalicia) • North Atlantic Ocean (0.5ºx0.5º) • Iberian Peninsula (0.25ºx0.25º) • Portuguese Coast (0.05ºx0.05º) • 72 hours forecast on a daily basis, updated around 7 a.m. GMT (~68 hours) • Operational mode running since May 2004

  6. Operational application • Possibility to easily add new nestings to the North Atlantic Ocean Model • Runs without need for any manual work • Sends a log e-mail in the end of the simulation • Starts everyday at 3 a.m. • Ends normally at 4h45 a.m. • Tries until a determined hour to start • If it fails to launch, starts from best restart possible, which can only be done for 3 days. More than that it must be restarted completely – needs 3 days simulation to get reliable results

  7. Operational application steps • Downloads and stores winds (~5MB/day) • Runs preprocessing tools (wind interpolations, nesting files, restart files, update start/end dates, etc) • Launches model • Store results and copies nesting files(~130 MB/day) • Plots results using GRADS (also possible with Mohid PostProcessor or MohidGIS) • Converts to HDF5 (results can be used by MOHID) • Publishes on the Internet

  8. North Atlantic model

  9. North Atlantic model - Hurricanes

  10. Portuguese coast model

  11. Model validation and reliability • No validation performed so far • Model results have been followed qualitatively against real-time buoy data (IH, Puertos del Estado) and other model results (MeteoGalicia, IM, Puertos del Estado). Same quality as IM forecasts. • Operational system is reliable. Failures due to: • Internet is down • Failure in wind models

  12. Model Buoy Validation – Leixões buoy

  13. Validation – Sines buoy Model Buoy

  14. Products from WW3 • Navigation warning system • Commercial ships • Recreational boats • Oil spill management system • Forecast for the general public (newspapers, TV, surf websites)

  15. Future work with WW3 - 1 • Validate the Portuguese Coast model (Time series comparison with automatic buoys – ask/buy data from IH?) • Improve parameterizations • Independency in terms of wind forcing using MM5-IST and downloading GFS (Extend to 120 or 144h forecasts – winds are reliable) • Higher resolution models for Azores and Madeira • Improve speed (use a faster computer or use MPI version with several computers – dedicated cluster?)

  16. Future work with WW3 - 2 • Real time validation • Results publication in an operational modelling website including • non-technical version • operational storm warning system for navigation • validation against satellite images • Couple with MOHID? – It’s possible

  17. Steps to be taken - 1 • Get someone to work on this? • 1 person full time • Understand waves • Find knowledge and learn from who knows • Understand wave modelling (North Atlantic swells, wind waves, Portuguese coast) • Time depending on person’s knowledge • Validate the Portuguese coast model (WW3) • Get buoy data and compare with available results (1 month) • Improve parameterization (2-3 months)

  18. Steps to be taken - 2 • Independency from MeteoGalicia winds • 1 week • Higher resolution models for Azores and Madeira • 1 week • Improve speed (MPI) • 3 days

  19. Steps to be taken - 3 • Choose a model for near shore simulations • SWAN – Simulating WAves Nearshore (open source, Pablo from MeteoGalicia has experience in implementation, used and accepted in scientific community, parallel processing) • GKSS – Wave model faster than SWAN, similar results but not very disseminated in the scientific community, possibility of cooperation • Others – STWAVE, REFDIF,… • Import knowledge and implementation technology • Pablo Carracedo (MeteoGalicia) – 2 weeks

  20. Steps to be taken - 4 • Implement SWAN (or chosen model) in strategic places • Tagus (SIMTEJO), Costa do Estoril (SANEST), Zambujeira do Mar (ICREW), Óbidos (Águas do Oeste), Ericeira (SIMTEJO), Aveiro (SIMRIA), Algarve (Águas do Algarve) • Start with most urgent site (implementation – 2 months)

  21. Steps to be taken - 5 • Technology - Couple with MOHID (Convert to HDF5) • Sediment transport (Done) • Done (Final Course Thesis) • Near shore currents (Done) • Mohid-STWave coupling iterative software (done) • Influence on turbulence and mixing • MSc/PhD (include/apply revised turbulence models) • Oil dispersion (Done)

  22. Steps to be taken - 6 • Create an application to easily implement a high resolution near shore model operationally (emergency plans) • Setup forecast system in 24 hours or less with full coupling with Wave Watch III, wind models and Mohid (EROCIPS) – 1 year • Data base • Coupling tools • Emergency plans • Useful in oil accidents – wave action on dispersion (EROCIPS) • Navigation warning system in the Tagus estuary (TRANSTEJO) or in other commercial ports in which circulation can be affected by waves (Aveiro, Leixões, Viana do Castelo, Sines, etc) • Needs high resolution wind model? • Is it profitable?

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