Myths, Misunderstandings & Mistakes of Jury Research

1. Myths, Misunderstandings & Mistakes of Jury Research

2. UCL Jury Project: 2007: Diversity & Fairness in the Jury System Jury summoning system – who is summoned, who serves, are jurors representative, does system discriminate? 2010: Are Juries Fair? Jury decision-making - Do juries discriminate against minorities? Jury conviction rates. Do jurors understand judicial directions? Juror internet use and impact of media coverage of trials.

3. 3 Main Research Methods (1) Case simulation (2) Large-scale data analysis of verdicts (2) Surveys/interviews with jurors Best research uses all 3 – triangulation

4. Case simulation research Study run only with real juries at Crown Courts Large number of juries see an identical case Defendant charged with violent crime (assault) Only difference is race of defendant

5. Large-scale verdict analysis Correlational studies - analysing all jury verdicts in all courts in England & Wales over 2 year period (>½ million charges)

6. Juror surveys & interviews Immediate post-verdict jury studies at court: • Juror awareness of media coverage of cases • Juror use of internet during trial • Juror views of deliberation process

7. Conducting Reliable Jury Research Reliable research about jury system inUK has been seriously hampered by a number of • Myths • Misunderstandings • Mistakes

8. Jury Research Myths Myths about what can and cannot be explored with real juries have affected both the jury policy and research agenda

9. Jury Research Misunderstandings Misunderstandings about how to address specific jury questions have led to misguided “jury research”

10. Jury Research Mistakes Mistakes about how to properly use jury research methodologies have produced questionable if not dangerous research findings

11. Myth of Section 8 S8, Contempt of Court Act 1981: it is a criminal offence to: “Obtain, disclose or solicit any particulars of statements made, opinions expressed, arguments advanced or votes cast by members of a jury in the course of their deliberations”

12. Impact of s.8 Myth One empirical study with juries in England & Wales 1981- 2007 What filled the black hole?

13. Research from other jurisdictions Assumed our juries behave in same way Fundamental error • Crucial differences in jury &social systems • Research on race and juries revealed distinct differences between US juries and juries in England and Wales • Research from other jurisdictions can be valuable – but mainly in terms of research design and methodology • Each jurisdiction needs to conduct its own research

14. In absence of reliable evidence here, policy agenda for reform of jury trials dominated by two elements. High profile jury trials where something went fundamentally wrong Create demand for reform … but invariably without answering 2 key questions with empirical evidence: How widespread is the problem? What is most effective method of addressing the problem? High profile cases

15. Also settingpolicy agenda and dominating beliefs about juries Those who work in the criminal courts can develop strong views about juries Professionals’ personal experiences can be extremely helpful in background research But they cannot provide reliable empirical evidence Their perceptions need to be tested objectively. Professional Anecdote

16. What is the state of jury research? Hardcore approach to jury research

17. At best misconceived- at worst dangerous Most “jury research” is in fact: • not done with actual jurors • not done with authentic and complete case materials • not conducted at the jury verdict level • not conducted with large enough or representative sample sizes to generate reliable conclusions

18. Common Methodological Errors Actual case analysis • Insufficient sample sizes • esp multi-variable analysis Surveys/Interviews • Unrepresentative samples • Low response rates • Over-reliance on volunteers • On-line surveys The self-selection problem

19. Temptation of case simulation Relatively easy now to do some version of “mock jury” research But not easy to do this research so it produces reliable conclusions about how juries decide cases

20. Participants: Myth of s.8 led to over-reliance on “proxy jurors” Students ≠ Jurors Volunteers ≠Jurors Failure to consider unique jury environment Materials must be: Authentic Complete Capable of precise controlled testing of variables Capable of large-scale repetition The “acting out” problem Common methodological errors in case simulations

21. Most case simulation research looks only at individual juror decisions not jury verdicts Not surprising – juryverdict researchis much more time consumingand complicated But it is not a case of 12 individual decisions = jury verdict Dangerous to extrapolate what verdicts will be from individual decisions In real world of criminal trial only verdict counts Juror decisions ≠ Jury verdicts

22. There is no set sample size for case simulation studies Sample size will depend on the number of variables being examined and case variations. But substantial numbers of full juries are necessary Some research has drawn major conclusions based on only 1 jury verdict per variable/variation. This is highly unreliable and can be dangerously misleading. Especially important when issues addressed in the research involve important policy issues. Sample sizes

23. Most researchers looking only to discover problems No attempt to test solutions “Merely to explain and understand is to fiddle while Rome burns.” Ronald V. Clarke

24. Responsible jury research Responsibility in carrying out jury research to insure: 1. Findings are not over-estimated 2. Original research design includes plans to test solutions to problems if found

25. Danger of being in the dark about juries These are not just narrow academic points about jury research methodology – real world impact • Significant challenges facing trial by jury in 21st century … including major criminal law reforms based on little more than assumptions about how juries work • In the existing information vacuum about juries, it is easy for any research which purports to be about juries to be seized upon to suit different policy agendas. • It will also almost inevitably attract media attention.

26. Important questions in need of hardcore jury research Evidence: complex, forensic, fraud, remote, virtual • Do juries understand complexevidence? • Do juries really defer to experts? • What is best way of presenting complex evidence to jury to ensure it is understood? • Is there a CSI effect? • How does visual presentation affect jurors? • How do jurors perceive “virtual” evidence?

27. Future of trial by jury? Shouldbe determined by properly conducted research with real jurors that produces reliable evidence.

28. UCL Jury Project current research projects Preventing improper internetuse (ESRC) Improving jury deliberations (ESRC) Impact of special measures (Nuffield) Judicial directions on law (Nuffield) Insanity defence& fitness to plead (Law Comm)

29. Questions?