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Probability

This text explains the concept of probability and its measurement, as well as the process of conducting experiments and observing outcomes. It also introduces events and their operators.

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Probability

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  1. Probability Probability involves the measurement of the uncertainty that the decision maker feels about the occurrence of some outcome.

  2. Experiment An experiment is the process by which an observation (measurement) is noted • Interviewing a buyer to determine brand preference for a particular product • Tossing a die and observing the number appearing on the upper face

  3. Events Each experiment may result in one or more outcomes (events). The individual outcomes are called basic outcomes (e). A collection of two or more basic outcomes is called a Compound event (E).

  4. Toss a die and observe the number appearing on the upper face Basic Outcome Result e1 1 e2 2 e3 3 e4 4 e5 5 e6 6 Example

  5. Sample Space (S) The Sample Space of an experiment is the collection of all the possible basic outcomes for the experiment. S = ( e1, e2, e3, e4, e5, e6)

  6. Event Operators An event operator is a symbol that indicates a rule for assigning some basic outcomes to a compound event • the complement operator ( ) • the union operator (); and • the intersection operator ()

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