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Enhancing Population Statistics Research Projects for Improved Data Accuracy and User Satisfaction

This research project aims to update methods for improving population statistics, focusing on migration data accuracy and timeliness. It includes a review of internal migration data inaccuracies, interventions to address lagged moves, and a detailed examination of long-term international emigration methods. The study also covers modeling techniques, covariate analysis, and recommendations from the UK Statistics Authority. Revisions to data collection methods and user engagement strategies are discussed, along with plans for implementing quality assurance tools. Volunteers are sought to test and provide feedback on these tools.

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Enhancing Population Statistics Research Projects for Improved Data Accuracy and User Satisfaction

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  1. Update on Population Statistics Research ProjectsJonny Tinsley, Population Statistics Research Unitpsru@ons.gov.uk

  2. Aims • Update on research projects to improve population statistics • Work collaboratively to ensure the research results and timeliness of method changes meet user needs • Discussion of UK Statistics Authority assessment of migration statistics

  3. Components of change For LAD Everytown

  4. Review of internal migration method

  5. Basic method PR t1 PR t2 LA 1 LA 2

  6. Basic method 2 HA 1 48 40 HA 2 LA 1 120 LA 3 LA 2 60 72

  7. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  8. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  9. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates Census PR PR LA 1 LA 2

  10. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  11. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  12. Inaccuracies in Internal Migration Estimates

  13. Problems inflating all moves within a HA

  14. Interventions research • How do we best adjust for ‘classic’ lagged moves on the patient register ?: data linkage or by modelling • How do we protect against lagged moves across the Census date?: linking Census with patient register • How to we best account for the missed moves?: improve NHSCR use or switch to Personal Demographic Service data

  15. Review of long-term international emigration method

  16. Definition • ONS use the United Nations recommended definition of an international long-term migrant: • a person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence

  17. IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)

  18. IPS estimates of long-term emigration at regional level (2011)

  19. Emigration model specification Stepwise model IPS estimate of LA emigration (3 year average) Final model used to estimate LA totals Covariate 1 Covariate 2 Covariate 3 Covariate i Constrain to regional total Model age/sex

  20. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level 2011 Census Number of hostels (+) Annual Population Survey Migrant Worker Scan Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) LA emigration estimates Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)

  21. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level 2011 Census Number of hostels (+) Annual Population Survey Migrant Worker Scan Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) LA emigration estimates Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)

  22. Updated model for year ending mid-2012 emigration estimates at LA level 2011 Census Number of hostels (+) Annual Population Survey Migrant Worker Scan Number of people of North American country of birth (+) Number of people of Oceania country of birth (+) LA emigration estimates Number of people of African country of birth (+) Number of in-migrants of EU8 nationality (+) Number of people aged 16+ in employment (-)

  23. Interventions research • Reviewing the covariates – what is associated with emigration? but also giving weight to what is intuitive, and is likely to be sensitive to change (non-Census variables) • Can admin sources available to ONS be used to distribute the regional IPS total more directly? • If not, ensure the best data is used in the model to reassure there is no systematic bias in net flows

  24. UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics 5 recommendations including ‘Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users’ ‘Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time-lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings’

  25. Revisions and user engagement ‘Set out a consistent approach to announcing changes to methods well in advance of the changed statistics and notify users’ • Update revisions policy • Publish minutes from decision making bodies • Engage through a variety of channels, including online

  26. Revisions implementation plan When June 2014 June 2015 June 2016 E = existing methods, R = revised methods

  27. UK Statistics Authority assessment of Migration Statistics ‘Investigate the feasibility of reducing the time-lag between the reference period and publication of IM and publish the findings’

  28. Quality assurance tools Population Quality Unit

  29. Quality information tools planned • Planned for release with mid-2013 Mid-year estimates • Comparator tool • Similar to 2011 Census tool – admin data and some demographic analysis (for example, fertility rates, sex ratios) • Component effect visualisation tool • Experimental • Focussed on last decade initially

  30. Help needed • A group of people prepared to test and comment on tools as they are designed – work likely to be end of April/early May. Contact Neil.Park@ons.gov.uk or fill in section on evaluation form.

  31. For information • Research paper on updated work on plausibility ranges1 in the light of the 2011 Census to be published in Spring 1Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/imps/latest-news/using-administrative-data-to-set-plausibility-ranges/index.html • Further work on statistical confidence intervals for mid-year estimates2 being carried out 2Original work here http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/method-quality/imps/latest-news/uncertainty-in-la-mypes/index.html

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