Operational Seasonal Forecasts in Europe GPCs in RA VI

1. Operational Seasonal Forecasts in EuropeGPCs in RA VI JP. Céron – Direction of Climatology Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr

2. Outline • GPCs • ECMWF • Some products • Web presentation • GPC Toulouse • Web access • Some products • Euro-SIP • Tropical Cyclone forecasts

3. Global Producing Centres A Global Producing Centre (GPC) for Long-Range Forecasts (LRF) is a new WMO designation that is conferred upon producers of global seasonal forecast products. The first GPCs were recognised at the WMO CBS Extraordinary Session held in Seoul, November 2006. As a minimum a GPC is required to: • Have a fixed production cycle and time off issuance; • Provide a minimum set of products; • Provide verifications as per the WMO SVSLRF; • Provide up-to-date information on methodology; • Make products available through a web-site and/or disseminated through the GTS and/or Internet.

4. Global Producing Centres GPC status was conferred in November 2006 on the National Meteorological Services of the following countries: Australia Canada China France Japan Korea United Kingdom United States of America In addition, ECMWF also achieved GPC status. Russia and South Africa and Brazil have joined more recently. Last IRI and APCC are conducting GPCs-like activities.

5. GPCs • Worldwide

6. RA VI Web sites (1) • European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) • http://www.ecmwf.int/ • http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/ • http://www.ecmwf.int/research/EU_projects/ENSEMBLES/data/ • Météo France • http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr/ (Seasonal forecasts) (Password-protected section for NMSs, similar organisations and specific users) • http://www.meteo.fr/special/CLIM/clim_model.html (Model anomalies)

7. RA VI Web sites (1) • Met Office(United Kingdom) • http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal • http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks (Password-protected section for NMSs and similar organisations) • http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/northatlanticyyyy (tropical cyclone forecasts) • World Meteorological Centre Moscow (WMC) • http://wmc.meteoinfo.ru/season • http://neacc.meteoinfo.ru/

8. RA VI Web sites (1) • World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPS/gdps-2.html#centres (EPS/ERF producing centres) • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html (GPCs) • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPS/gdps.html (Definitions of forecast ranges, … ) • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/documents/485_Vol_I_en_colour.pdf (Verification system for Long-range forecast – see Attachment II-8)

9. ECMWF Products • Ocean Analysis and Reanalysis • Temperature anomaly along the equator (ocean cross-section), Sea level anomaly, Zonal wind stress anomaly • 7-day mean, updated weekly • Tropical belt • Seasonal forecasts: Nino’s indices • Nino 3, 3.4, 4 SST anomaly plumes

10. ECMWF Products • Seasonal forecasts: Forecast maps • Precipitation , Temperature at 2m , Mean sea level pressure , Sea surface temperature, Z500, • Ensemble mean value, Probability of below / above various thresholds • Global and sub-areas • Lead time from 1 to 4 months + yearly forecasts • 3-month averages, updated monthly(quaterly for yearly forecasts)

11. ECMWF Products

12. ECMWF Products

13. GPC Toulouse • Operationnal Forecasting Suite • Distributed Forecasting suite, coupled model (Arpège T63L91 for atmosphere and OPA8.3/Orca 2° grid for the ocean) • ECMWF atmospheric analysis – Mercator oceanic analysis • Hindcast 1979-2007 – 11 members • Operations : 7 month range forecast - 41 members 8 atmospheric * 5 oceanic Initial Conditions (+ 1 member) • Products • issuance at the beginning of the current month

14. GPC Toulouse • Coupled model : • Global fields (2°5 by 2°5) • Precipitation, Temperature at 2m and 850hPa, Geopotential Height at 500hPa, Mean Sea Level Pressure, U and V at 850 hPa • SST • Niño plumes for Niño 4, Niño 3.4, Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 boxes, • Oceanic plumes for TNA, TSA, TASI, WTIO, SETIO, DMI (consistent with OOPC boxes) • Specific boxes for T2m and Rainfall (consistent with ECMWF) • Circulation regimes (North Atlantic sector) • Velocity Potential and Stream Function at 200 hPa • Expertised product : • Global Climate Bulletin (GCB) • Monthly update, • Expected lead-time of 1 month for forecasts , • Edited by the end of the current month (for next 3 month forecasts)

15. Access : dedicated Extranet 6 Menus Bulletins Working Space

16. Products : Maps

17. Products • Oceanic and Land boxes

18. Products : Specific Boxes Land Boxes T2m Rainfall Ocean Boxes

19. Products : Bulletins Global Climate Bulletin n°132 (issued end of May) April 2010 observations JJA 2010 forecasts

20. GCMs consensus : the Global Climate Bulletin Temperature OND 2010 Rainfall OND 2010

21. Bulletin and others Bulletins : Monthly Briefing Recording

22. EUROSIP Multi-model - System 3 (4) • 3 Coupled Systems : • ECMWF, Météo France, Met Office • Ensemble generation for the 3 systems is different • 41 member ensemble for each model in system 3 ; 51 in system 4 (currently in development) • Hind-cast period: 1981-2005 for Ecmwf , UK Met Off. and Météo France • and 11 members in S3 (15 members in system 4 and different hindcast periods ; trying to target a minimum and common period of 20 years). • Development of multi-model products for system 4 is ongoing

23. Tropical Cyclones - Forecasts Tropical Cyclone activity forecasts Genesis zone forecasts

24. Tropical CyclonesTropical North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclonic Energy SST : Niño 3 and Tropical North-East Atlantic Nbre of Tropical Cyclones Ability of the models to properly simulate the relevant parameters

25. Tropical Cyclones - Forecasts Interest of MME approaches Quality over the different oceanic basins

26. Thank you for attention Météo-France CARICOF WORKSHOP J.P. Céron Météo-France Jean-Pierre.Ceron@meteo.fr