1 / 16

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This report provides a summary of the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American monsoon system. It includes highlights, rainfall patterns, atmospheric circulation, wind and temperature, and model forecasts. Visit the link for more information.

robinsonevelyn
Download Presentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 3 January 2012 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over most of South America. Above-average rainfall was seen over southeastern Brazil and portions of western Bolivia and northwestern Paraguay. • For 3-9 Jan 2012, above-average rainfall is predicted for the western coastal regions of South America and much of northern and southeastern Brazil (except northeastern Brazil). Below-average rainfall is predicted for Venezuela, Bolivia, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For 10-16 Jan 2012, above-average rainfall is predicted over southern Colombia, Peru, western Brazil, and western Bolivia. Below-average rainfall is predicted for most of the other regions.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average rainfall was observed over most of South America. Above-average rainfall was seen over southeastern Brazil and portions of western Bolivia and northwestern Paraguay.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average rainfall was observed over most of South America. Above-normal rainfall was seen over western-northwestern South America and portions of southeastern Brazil.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin. They are also slightly below average or near average over the Brazilian Plateau. • 90-day totals are below average in southern Brazil.

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies Below-average SSTs are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean and most of the tropical Atlantic. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During 25-31 December 2011, an enhanced 200-hPa ridge (anticyclonic circulation) dominated central South America, with anomalously strong southerly flow extended from southern Brazil northward to the Equator. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion (positive omega) was found over northeastern South America and northern Argentina. Anomalous rising motion was observed in a band extending from the western Amazon basin southeastward across Southeast Brazil and the western Atlantic. Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days • During the 7-day period of 25-31 December 2011, temperatures below normal over Uruguay and extreme southern Brazil, and above normal over southern Argentina and Chile. Low-level (~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 3 Jan 2012 – Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 3 Jan 2012 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (3-9 Jan 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted for the western coastal regions of South America and much of northern and southeastern Brazil (except northeastern Brazil). Below-average rainfall is predicted for Venezuela, Bolivia, Paraguay, southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northeastern Argentina. • For Days 8-14 (10-16 Jan 2012), above-average rainfall is predicted over southern Colombia, Peru, western Brazil, and western Bolivia. Below-average rainfall is predicted for most of the other regions.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 12 Dec 2011 Valid 19-25 Dec 2011 Forecast from 19 Dec 2011 Valid 19-25 Dec 2011 Observed 20-26 Dec 2011

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related