Climate-Science Computational Endstation Development and Grand Challenge Team

1. Climate-Science Computational Endstation Development and Grand Challenge Team Petascale Modeling the Climate of the 20th and 21st Centuries: Recent ResultsWarren M. Washington (NCAR)-John Drake (ORNL) - Trey White (ORNL) -Lawrence Buja (NCAR) IntroductionThe Climate End Station integrates an ambitious three year simulation plan emphasizing model application with an ongoing model development component that envisions future needs. The CCSM3 is a state-of-the-science model that accurately simulates global to continental aspects of the physical climate system. Significant “biogeochemical” cycles that influence climate change and therefore require simulation involve carbon, sulfur and nitrogen compounds. Of particular importance is the correct simulation of the global carbon cycle and its feedbacks to the climate system, including its variability and modulation by ocean and land ecosystems. Continued development and extensive testing of the CCSM system to include recent new knowledge about these processes is at the cutting edge of climate science research and is a principal focus of the CCES Sea surface temperature (degreesC) on the last day of year 4 from the 1/10 degree, 42 level POP spinup simulation on Jaguar.  The result of this spinup run will be used as the ocean initial condition for a fully coupled climate run. (Mat Maltrud, LANL) The Climate End Station Team This year we introduce active coupling of the high-resolution atmosphere with dynamic vegetation in the land model. Improved precipitation and representation of hydrologic processes on the land, the ecosystem dynamics will improve the simulation of the carbon coupling with climate leading up to the 2009 CCSM4 release NCAR: increase model atmosphere resolution, reduce model biases and new emissions reduction simulations LANL/COSIM: increase resolution in the ocean and sea ice models and will target high resolution coupled experiments and BGC LLNL/PCMDI: compare and validate the new models with scaled-up, distributed analysis infrastructure PNNL: Application of physically based online downscaling to investigate the impact of climate change on regional water resources, NASA-GSFC: Validate models to improve the quality/performance of climate simulations for policy formulation and impact planning ORNL: software integration and development and comparison of coupled carbon-climate simulation and biogeochemistry models to investigate feedbacks in the climate system. Further outreach activities will occur through the ORNL Climate Change Research Institute and university partners at Duke and Georgia Tech. Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration originating from the land surface for February 1900. CO2 is transferred from the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3)--coupled with the CASA' terrestrial biogeochemistry model--to the Community Atmosphere FY06 Climate End Station Milestones- the first 400 year control run of the new finite volume atmospheric model fully coupled in the CCSM framework (this was first presented at the June 2006 CCSM Workshop by Peter Gent and is key to future development), - Carbon Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP) simulations using CASA and CN and IBIS in the CCSM framework,- Study of the high resolution spectral atmospheric model performance for climate change prediction,- Spin up of eddy resolving ocean simulations for study of abrupt climate change- IPCC follow on study differentiating natural climate evolution and anthropogenic climate change using CCSM3. The anthropogenic climate change “fingerprint”. In the absence of human-induced changesto the atmosphere, the earth would be in a cooling trend (simulations were carried out using both ORNL Phoenx and NERSC Bassi machines) Experiment 2007.4 Washington Emissions Reductions Scenarios