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Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits

Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits. Dr. Vicky Albert UNLV School of Social Work 10 th Annual Welfare Research and Evaluation Conference Washington D.C. June 4, 07 vicky.albert @unlv.edu (Prepared with King W. & Iaci, R.). Time Limits in Nevada.

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Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits

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  1. Welfare Returns and Temporary Time Limits Dr. Vicky Albert UNLV School of Social Work 10th Annual Welfare Research and Evaluation Conference Washington D.C. June 4, 07 vicky.albert @unlv.edu (Prepared with King W. & Iaci, R.)

  2. Time Limits in Nevada • Federal Time Limits (5 years) some exemptions • State Temporary Time Limits (TTL) after receiving 24 months of cash assistance (some hardship extensions) • Two “Sit Out” periods allowed, 12 months each • January 1998, temporary time limit clock started ticking for all families • January 2000, first set of families left due to temporary time limits • Once sitting out, families may receive Medicaid indefinitely

  3. Returning to TANF: Issues • Returning more important now than before welfare reform: recipients are using more of their lifetime benefits • Studies show re-entry rates vary by exit routes • Re-entry rates following marriage or co-habitation are higher than those following work • Re-entry rate following work is more rapid during the first six months after exit than rate following marriage • Present study can identify exit reason due to reaching temporary time limits

  4. Study Questions For families with children who left TANF due to temporary time limits: 1. How does risk of re-entry change over time? • How do personal characteristics of head of household or family characteristics affect the risk of re-entry? • To what extent do behaviors before reaching time limits, such as repeated spells, affect the risk of returning? 4. To what extent do the appeal of the welfare system and economic conditions affect the risk of return?

  5. Data • Employed monthly administrative data, April 1998 to June 2002 • January 2000, first set of families left due to time limits • Individual monthly data made into family-level longitudinal records • Family-level data for over 40,000 families • No information about exit reasons, duration dependence, “sit outs” or hardship • No work-related information nor information about mental health or disability

  6. Sample Selection Criteria • Families who left after receiving TANF grants for at least 24 months with no closure dates received no grant and received Medicaid • Heads of households over age of 18 and under 60 • Family needed to remain off rolls for at least two months before considered a returnee

  7. Selected Sample Characteristics • Disproportionate number of families left in beginning of study period • Followed 44% of the sample for at least 24 months after exit • Of 1,188 families who left due to time limits requirement, 6.9% (n = 91) returned for cash by the end of the study period

  8. Patterns of Return • Survival analysis used to analyze patterns of return for cash assistance • Estimates suggest that about 90% would not return • 64% of those who eventually return do so during the first 3 months after the end of their sit out period • 82% of those who eventually return do so within the first 6 months after the end of their sit out period

  9. Modeling Risk of Returning • Cox proportional hazard model used covariates that were fixed at exit • Number of spells prior to exit • Age of youngest child • Family size of 3 or 4 • Family size of 5 or more • The covariates which were time varying • Unemployment rate • TANF maximum aid

  10. Key Findings • A unemployment rate increases by 1%, all else constant, monthly risk of returning increases by 48 percent (Hazard Ratio = 1.48, p < .0001) • All else constant, with each additional spell prior to exit, monthly risk of returning increases by more than 140 percent (Hazard Ratio = 2.42, p < .0001) • All else constant, families with 3 or 4 members have more than five times the risk of returning (Hazard Ratio = 5.04, p < .05 ) • TANF Maximum aid has virtually no impact on risk of returning (Hazard Ratio = 0.989, p < .05 ) • As youngest child age increases by 1 year, family has 5% less risk of returning (Hazard Ratio = 0.946, p < .05 )

  11. Summary and Implications • Re-entry rate is low after sit out period is over than rates found in studies that examined returns after leaving due to earnings or due to other reasons • The strong impact of the economy on returns needs to be accounted for if adopting temporary time limit policies • A low return rate does not mean that families are not depending on Medicaid or in-kind benefits • A low return rates does not mean that families are thriving • Special attention and services should be paid to those with characteristics that are linked to an increase in the risk of return

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