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Population Dynamics

Population Dynamics. . World Population Density (people/km 2 ). 12 Bangladesh 1,034/km2 24 Netherlands 496/km2 57 Germany 229/km2 121 Ethiopia 79/km2. Ethiopia’s Population Density (people/km 2 ). Population Dynamics. Definition:

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Population Dynamics

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  1. Population Dynamics

  2. World Population Density (people/km2) 12 Bangladesh 1,034/km2 24 Netherlands 496/km2 57 Germany 229/km2 121 Ethiopia 79/km2

  3. Ethiopia’s Population Density (people/km2)

  4. Population Dynamics Definition: Development of the number of people on a defined surface. Births Migrants Migrants Deaths

  5. Population Data Ethiopia • Population 80 mio. 2012, 145 mio. estimated for 2050 • 2nd most populous country in Africa • Annual population growth rate: 2.5% • In Ethiopia influenced mainly by fertility • Birth rate (children/women): 4,8 (urban 2,6/ rural 5,5) • FP usage nationwide: 19.6% • Unmet FP need: 25,3%

  6. Population Projection Ethiopia

  7. Reasons for high Fertility • Child mortality • Children needed as workforce and age security • Cultural values • Early marriage (♀ avarage 16.5 years ) • Low social and economic status of women • Low female education • Low access to Family Planning

  8. Impact of Population Growth • Need of social services  • High fertility  infant and maternal mortality  • Energy- & resource-consumption  •  environmental & climate effects • Waste  • Urbanisation  • Mobility/ migration  • Risk of conflicts  • Unemployment  chance for productivity 

  9. The demographic transition I

  10. The demographic transition II The Dependency Ratio = People not part of the working population People part of the workforce (15 < age < 65 years)

  11. The demographic transition III • growth rate > 1% • big proportion of youth • high dependency ratio • high investments in education and social services • Even if fertility decline starts, population continues growing for a while

  12. The demographic transition IV • growth rate 0-1% • low dependency ratio • big proportion of workforce •  “Demographic Dividend”: Chance for economic growth!

  13. The demographic transition V • growth rate 0% • increasing proportion of elderly • increasing dependency ratio • Investments for pensions & social services for elderly needed

  14. The demographic transition VI

  15. Potential approaches I • The individual decision about the size of the family is perceived as a human right!  The target is a comprehensive sexual and reproductive wellbeing  No family can be forced to have few children!  Strengthen women’s decision-making, don’t dominate them!

  16. Potential approaches II • Speed up economic growth and development • Use population related data for planning • Create Job Opportunities • Ensure fulfilling of basic needs for the poor • Decrease child mortality (= increase trust in child survival) • Increase age of marriage/ age of first pregnancy • Strengthen women’s status • Female education • Increase access to family planning

  17. Thank you very much for your attention!

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